Language:English
Leganés v AD Ceuta FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Leganés (Local)
Prediction 50.66%1.97fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.97%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.05%50.69%50.65%52.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.831.831.9260.24%54.74%54.64%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
AD Ceuta FC (Visit)
Prediction 22.21%4.50fair odd
EV +1.08%
Edge +0.237%
Kelly +0.304%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 4.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.47%22.15%22.24%23.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.084.004.5527.78%24.52%25.00%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.13%3.69fair odd
EV -3.97%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.40%27.16%27.11%28.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.353.353.5434.72%29.88%29.85%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leganés (Local): 50.66%; AD Ceuta FC (Visit): 22.21%; Draw: 27.13%. For AD Ceuta FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.50. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.08%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.89%EV -3.75%E -1.97%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.25%EV +1.08%E +0.237%K +0.304%G +0.003% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.86%EV -5.87%E -1.69%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-21 12:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.40%EV -6.79%E -3.69%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.79%EV +1.08%E +0.237%K +0.304%G +0.003% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 12:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.40%EV -6.79%E -3.69%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.79%EV +1.08%E +0.237%K +0.304%G +0.003% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 12:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.04%EV -10.34%E -5.84%K -13.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -0.033%E -0.007%K -0.009%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-21 12:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.04%EV -10.34%E -5.84%K -13.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -0.033%E -0.007%K -0.009%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-21 12:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.18%EV -9.32%E -5.21%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -1.14%E -0.257%K -0.331%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.84%EV -5.60%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 12:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.31%EV -6.28%E -3.40%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -2.25%E -0.512%K -0.663%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -5.06%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 12:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.53%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.02%EV -2.25%E -0.512%K -0.663%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-21 12:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -2.25%E -0.512%K -0.663%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-21 12:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.01%EV -4.76%E -2.53%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 4.38I 22.83%NM 21.90%EV -2.70%E -0.616%K -0.798%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.09%EV -3.97%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 12:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.33%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -5.59%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -5.06%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 12:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -5.59%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 09:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.32%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -6.70%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -6.41%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 12:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -6.70%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.06%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 09:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -6.70%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -13.19%E -4.12%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-21 12:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.36%EV -11.35%E -6.48%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -6.70%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-21 12:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.71%EV -3.24%E -1.70%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -8.92%E -2.18%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -5.06%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 09:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.78%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -8.92%E -2.18%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.06%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 07:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.80%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -8.92%E -2.18%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-21 09:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.80%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -8.92%E -2.18%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-21 10:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -6.28%E -3.40%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.83%EV -10.03%E -2.48%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 08:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -6.28%E -3.40%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.83%EV -10.03%E -2.48%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 08:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.80%EV -9.32%E -5.21%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.45%EV -10.03%E -2.48%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 08:42 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.91%EV -2.74%E -1.43%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 12:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.91%EV -2.74%E -1.43%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 12:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.91%EV -2.74%E -1.43%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 12:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.91%EV -2.74%E -1.43%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 12:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.91%EV -2.74%E -1.43%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 12:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -5.06%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 12:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.04%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-21 08:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-21 06:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.49%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-21 12:00 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.46%EV -9.32%E -5.21%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-21 08:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-03-21 09:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.22%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -12.25%E -3.10%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-21 12:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.22%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -12.25%E -3.10%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-21 12:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.22%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -12.25%E -3.10%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-21 12:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.22%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -12.25%E -3.10%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-21 12:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.32%EV -12.36%E -7.15%K -16.93%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.04%EV -12.25%E -3.10%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.64%EV -14.55%E -4.62%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-03-21 12:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.08%EV -9.83%E -5.52%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 22.74%EV -12.92%E -3.30%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 27.18%EV -11.02%E -3.36%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-21 09:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.34%EV -6.28%E -3.40%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.41%EV -13.36%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.25%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-21 12:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.15%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -13.36%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -6.41%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-21 08:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -6.28%E -3.40%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -13.36%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 12:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.62%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.36%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-21 09:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.62%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.36%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-21 06:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.62%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.36%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-21 06:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.62%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.36%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-21 06:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.62%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.36%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-21 06:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.06%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -14.47%E -3.76%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-03-21 12:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.06%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -14.47%E -3.76%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-03-21 12:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 49.93%EV -10.84%E -6.16%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -16.69%E -4.45%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-03-21 08:44 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 50.40%EV -15.91%E -9.58%K -24.10%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 22.61%EV -17.80%E -4.81%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 26.99%EV -15.91%E -5.13%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 19.5% | 2026-03-21 12:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 48.05%EV -12.36%E -7.15%K -16.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.09%EV -20.03%E -5.56%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 28.86%EV -21.87%E -7.60%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 20.3% | 2026-03-21 09:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.27% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.05% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.68% | 1.8% | 2026-03-21 12:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.27% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.05% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.68% | 1.8% | 2026-03-21 12:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.27% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.05% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.68% | 1.8% | 2026-03-21 12:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.27% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.05% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.68% | 1.8% | 2026-03-21 12:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.61% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.48% | 1.9% | 2026-03-21 12:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.38% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.41% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.21% | 2.1% | 2026-03-21 12:35 |