Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Leganés v AD Ceuta FC

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-21 13:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

53 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Leganés (Local)

Prévision 50.66%1.97cote équitable
EV -2.74%
Avantage -1.43%
Kelly -2.97%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.92

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
48.05%50.69%50.65%52.18%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.661.831.831.9260.24%54.74%54.64%52.08%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

AD Ceuta FC (Visiteur)

Prévision 22.21%4.50cote équitable
EV +1.08%
Avantage +0.237%
Kelly +0.304%
Croissance +0.003%

avec la cote maximale 4.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.47%22.15%22.24%23.48%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.604.084.004.5527.78%24.52%25.00%21.98%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 27.13%3.69cote équitable
EV -3.97%
Avantage -1.12%
Kelly -1.56%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.54

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.40%27.16%27.11%28.86%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.883.353.353.5434.72%29.88%29.85%28.25%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Leganés (Local) : 50.66% ; AD Ceuta FC (Visiteur) : 22.21% ; Match nul : 27.13%. Pour AD Ceuta FC (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 4.50. 3 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 4.55, soit une espérance positive de +1.08%.

Cotes des opérateurs (53 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.89%EV -3.75%E -1.97%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.25%EV +1.08%E +0.237%K +0.304%G +0.003%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.86%EV -5.87%E -1.69%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-21 12:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.40%EV -6.79%E -3.69%K -8.08%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.79%EV +1.08%E +0.237%K +0.304%G +0.003%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-21 12:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.40%EV -6.79%E -3.69%K -8.08%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.79%EV +1.08%E +0.237%K +0.304%G +0.003%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-21 12:35
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.04%EV -10.34%E -5.84%K -13.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -0.033%E -0.007%K -0.009%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-21 12:35
BetAnything🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.04%EV -10.34%E -5.84%K -13.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -0.033%E -0.007%K -0.009%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-21 12:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.18%EV -9.32%E -5.21%K -11.80%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -1.14%E -0.257%K -0.331%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.84%EV -5.60%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 12:34
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.31%EV -6.28%E -3.40%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -2.25%E -0.512%K -0.663%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -5.06%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 12:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.53%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.02%EV -2.25%E -0.512%K -0.663%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-21 12:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -2.25%E -0.512%K -0.663%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-21 12:20
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.01%EV -4.76%E -2.53%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.90%EV -2.70%E -0.616%K -0.798%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.09%EV -3.97%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-21 12:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.33%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -5.59%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -5.06%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 12:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -5.59%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-21 09:20
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.32%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -6.70%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -6.41%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 12:00
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -6.70%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.06%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 09:19
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -6.70%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -13.19%E -4.12%K -6.00%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-21 12:34
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.36%EV -11.35%E -6.48%K -15.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -6.70%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-21 12:34
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.71%EV -3.24%E -1.70%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -8.92%E -2.18%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -5.06%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 09:55
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.78%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -8.92%E -2.18%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.06%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-21 07:20
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.80%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -8.92%E -2.18%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-21 09:20
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.80%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -8.92%E -2.18%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-21 10:39
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -6.28%E -3.40%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.83%EV -10.03%E -2.48%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-21 08:44
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -6.28%E -3.40%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.83%EV -10.03%E -2.48%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-21 08:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.80%EV -9.32%E -5.21%K -11.80%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.45%EV -10.03%E -2.48%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-21 08:42
Unibet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.91%EV -2.74%E -1.43%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 12:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.91%EV -2.74%E -1.43%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 12:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.91%EV -2.74%E -1.43%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 12:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.91%EV -2.74%E -1.43%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 12:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.91%EV -2.74%E -1.43%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 12:19
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -5.06%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-21 12:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.04%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-21 08:45
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-21 06:50
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.49%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-21 12:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.46%EV -9.32%E -5.21%K -11.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-21 08:45
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -11.14%E -2.79%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-21 09:20
betPARX🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.22%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -12.25%E -3.10%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-21 12:20
TABtouch🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.22%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -12.25%E -3.10%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-21 12:20
Grosvenor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.22%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -12.25%E -3.10%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-21 12:20
Casumo🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.22%EV -5.27%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -12.25%E -3.10%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-21 12:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.32%EV -12.36%E -7.15%K -16.93%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.04%EV -12.25%E -3.10%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.64%EV -14.55%E -4.62%K -6.77%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-21 12:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.08%EV -9.83%E -5.52%K -12.60%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 22.74%EV -12.92%E -3.30%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.18%EV -11.02%E -3.36%K -4.83%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-21 09:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.34%EV -6.28%E -3.40%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.41%EV -13.36%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.25%EV -9.12%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-21 12:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.15%EV -7.80%E -4.29%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -13.36%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -6.41%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-21 08:45
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -6.28%E -3.40%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -13.36%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-21 12:20
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.62%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.36%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-21 09:20
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.62%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.36%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-21 06:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.62%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.36%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-21 06:49
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.62%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.36%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-21 06:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.62%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.36%E -3.43%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-21 06:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.06%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -14.47%E -3.76%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-21 12:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.06%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -14.47%E -3.76%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -11.84%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-21 12:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.93%EV -10.84%E -6.16%K -14.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -16.69%E -4.45%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -10.48%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-21 08:44
PMU (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 50.40%EV -15.91%E -9.58%K -24.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.61%EV -17.80%E -4.81%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.99%EV -15.91%E -5.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%19.5%2026-03-21 12:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 48.05%EV -12.36%E -7.15%K -16.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.09%EV -20.03%E -5.56%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.86%EV -21.87%E -7.60%K -11.64%G +0.000%20.3%2026-03-21 09:19
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.27%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.05%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.68%1.8%2026-03-21 12:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.27%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.05%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.68%1.8%2026-03-21 12:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.88I 53.19%NM 52.27%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.05%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.68%1.8%2026-03-21 12:35
Matchbook1.88I 53.19%NM 52.27%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.05%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.68%1.8%2026-03-21 12:30
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.61%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.48%1.9%2026-03-21 12:30
Smarkets1.87I 53.48%NM 52.38%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.41%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.21%2.1%2026-03-21 12:35