Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Girona FC v CD Castellón

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-12 16:30 UTC

Score final : Girona FC 1–2 CD Castellón

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

53 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Girona FC (Local)

Prévision 41.91%2.39cote équitable
EV -2.76%
Avantage -1.19%
Kelly -2.09%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.32

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.75%41.99%41.85%43.91%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.972.182.162.3250.76%45.92%46.30%43.10%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

CD Castellón (Visiteur)

Prévision 31.13%3.21cote équitable
EV +0.559%
Avantage +0.173%
Kelly +0.251%
Croissance +0.001%

avec la cote maximale 3.23

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.61%31.05%31.20%33.25%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.752.962.953.2336.36%33.82%33.90%30.96%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 26.95%3.71cote équitable
EV -2.96%
Avantage -0.823%
Kelly -1.14%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.08%26.97%26.95%28.05%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.203.393.403.6031.25%29.46%29.41%27.78%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Girona FC (Local) : 41.91% ; CD Castellón (Visiteur) : 31.13% ; Match nul : 26.95%. Pour CD Castellón (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 3.21. 1 opérateur proposait une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 3.23, soit une espérance positive de +0.559%.

Cotes des opérateurs (53 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.98%EV -5.70%E -2.53%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.94%EV +0.559%E +0.173%K +0.251%G +0.001%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.09%EV -3.77%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-12 16:16
1xBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.79%EV -6.95%E -3.13%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.06%EV -1.62%E -0.513%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 16:25
Unibet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.42%EV -9.47%E -4.38%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -1.93%E -0.613%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:19
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.54%EV -5.70%E -2.53%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.87%EV -3.49%E -1.13%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.59%EV -2.96%E -0.823%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-12 15:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.38%EV -9.47%E -4.38%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -3.49%E -1.13%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -4.31%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 15:41
Unibet (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.38%EV -9.47%E -4.38%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -3.49%E -1.13%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -4.31%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 15:41
ATG (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.38%EV -9.47%E -4.38%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -3.49%E -1.13%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -4.31%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 15:41
Svenska Spel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.38%EV -9.47%E -4.38%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -3.49%E -1.13%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -4.31%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 15:41
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -11.98%E -5.71%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -3.49%E -1.13%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-12 16:20
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.31%EV -3.60%E -1.57%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.04%E -1.65%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -7.01%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 16:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.70%E -2.53%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -5.04%E -1.65%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-12 14:20
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.42%EV -12.82%E -6.16%K -11.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.61%EV -5.04%E -1.65%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 14:20
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.70%E -2.53%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -6.60%E -2.20%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 16:25
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.70%E -2.53%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -6.60%E -2.20%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 16:25
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -5.70%E -2.53%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -6.60%E -2.20%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.05%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 16:20
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -9.89%E -4.60%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -6.60%E -2.20%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-12 15:40
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -9.89%E -4.60%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -6.60%E -2.20%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.05%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -11.98%E -5.71%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -6.60%E -2.20%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.35%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 15:40
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -11.98%E -5.71%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -6.60%E -2.20%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.35%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 15:41
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -11.98%E -5.71%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -6.60%E -2.20%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.35%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 15:41
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -5.70%E -2.53%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.22%EV -6.91%E -2.31%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.29%EV -7.81%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 16:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -8.16%E -2.77%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-12 15:41
Bovada🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -6.54%E -2.93%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -8.16%E -2.77%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 16:24
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -5.70%E -2.53%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -8.16%E -2.77%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -11.05%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 16:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.28%EV -13.24%E -6.40%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -8.16%E -2.77%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -8.35%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 15:41
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.28%EV -13.24%E -6.40%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -8.16%E -2.77%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -8.35%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 15:41
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.23%EV -13.66%E -6.63%K -12.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.19%EV -8.16%E -2.77%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.58%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-12 15:41
LowVig.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.46%EV -2.76%E -1.19%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.93%EV -8.47%E -2.88%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -8.35%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 16:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.46%EV -2.76%E -1.19%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.93%EV -8.47%E -2.88%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -8.35%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 16:25
BetAnything🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.46%EV -2.76%E -1.19%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.93%EV -8.47%E -2.88%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -8.35%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 16:25
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.18%EV -6.95%E -3.13%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.71%E -3.35%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 16:25
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.18%EV -6.95%E -3.13%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.71%E -3.35%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 16:26
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -9.89%E -4.60%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.71%E -3.35%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-12 16:14
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -9.89%E -4.60%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.71%E -3.35%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-12 16:14
Codere (IT)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.40%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -9.71%E -3.35%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -9.70%E -2.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-12 16:25
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -9.89%E -4.60%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -9.71%E -3.35%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -12.40%E -3.81%K -5.51%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -9.89%E -4.60%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -9.71%E -3.35%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -12.40%E -3.81%K -5.51%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -9.89%E -4.60%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -9.71%E -3.35%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -12.40%E -3.81%K -5.51%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -9.89%E -4.60%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -9.71%E -3.35%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -12.40%E -3.81%K -5.51%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-12 14:20
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -10.34%E -3.59%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -8.35%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.34%E -3.59%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -13.74%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-12 16:20
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.34%E -3.59%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -13.74%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-12 16:21
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.34%E -3.59%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -13.74%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-12 16:21
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.86%EV -14.08%E -6.87%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.51%EV -10.34%E -3.59%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -11.05%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-12 16:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 41.95%EV -10.73%E -5.04%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.13%EV -10.65%E -3.71%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.91%EV -10.51%E -3.17%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-12 16:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.06%EV -9.89%E -4.60%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.73%EV -11.27%E -3.95%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.21%EV -7.01%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 16:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.73%EV -14.08%E -6.87%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.73%EV -11.27%E -3.95%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.54%EV -11.05%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-12 16:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 43.53%EV -17.43%E -8.85%K -17.97%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.09%EV -11.27%E -3.95%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.38%EV -12.40%E -3.81%K -5.51%G +0.000%16.6%2026-09-12 15:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.65%EV -11.98%E -5.71%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.02%EV -12.21%E -4.33%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.33%EV -13.74%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-12 16:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -5.70%E -2.53%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -12.83%E -4.58%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 16:25
PlayUp🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.75%EV -4.44%E -1.95%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.37%EV -12.83%E -4.58%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -12.40%E -3.81%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 16:26
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -9.89%E -4.60%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.83%E -4.58%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -8.35%E -2.46%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 16:25
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -5.70%E -2.53%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -14.38%E -5.23%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -5.66%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 16:25
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 41.18%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.14%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.68%0.4%2026-09-12 16:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 41.18%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.14%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.68%0.4%2026-09-12 16:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 41.18%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.14%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.68%0.4%2026-09-12 16:25
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.51%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.74%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.74%1.0%2026-09-12 16:25
Matchbook◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.79%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.39%1.4%2026-09-12 16:25
Smarkets◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.17%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.61%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.22%2.1%2026-09-12 16:25