Language:English
Burgos CF v AD Ceuta FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Burgos CF (Local)
Prediction 57.07%1.75fair odd
EV -0.135%
Edge -0.077%
Kelly -0.180%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.27%57.08%57.13%58.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.631.621.7565.79%61.24%61.73%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
AD Ceuta FC (Visit)
Prediction 18.60%5.38fair odd
EV +0.053%
Edge +0.010%
Kelly +0.012%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.57%18.60%18.58%20.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.794.755.3823.53%20.89%21.05%18.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.34%4.11fair odd
EV -0.948%
Edge -0.233%
Kelly -0.309%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.07
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.26%24.31%24.30%26.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.683.654.0730.77%27.20%27.40%24.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Burgos CF (Local): 57.07%; AD Ceuta FC (Visit): 18.60%; Draw: 24.34%. For AD Ceuta FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.377. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.380, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.053%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.73%EV -8.12%E -5.05%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 5.38I 18.59%NM 17.57%EV +0.053%E +0.010%K +0.012%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 23.70%EV -2.90%E -0.726%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-09 15:46 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.90%EV -4.70%E -2.81%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -2.36%E -0.450%K -0.556%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-06 15:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.34%EV -9.84%E -6.23%K -16.96%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV -3.29%E -0.634%K -0.784%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -6.30%E -1.64%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-09 15:32 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.78%EV -5.27%E -3.18%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 5.14I 19.46%NM 18.66%EV -4.41%E -0.858%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.56%EV -0.948%E -0.233%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.64%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.08%EV -5.15%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.64%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.08%EV -5.15%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.64%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.08%EV -5.15%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%EV -4.70%E -2.81%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -2.65%E -0.663%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-07 07:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.04%EV -5.84%E -3.54%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -5.09%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-07 07:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.92%EV -8.12%E -5.05%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.43%EV -3.14%E -0.789%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.49%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.63%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -5.09%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-09 13:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -2.65%E -0.663%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 15:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-07 07:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -8.74%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-07 07:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.91%EV -8.12%E -5.05%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -9.95%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.06%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -9.95%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-09 09:38 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.06%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -9.95%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-09 09:33 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -8.87%E -1.81%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -8.87%E -1.81%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-09 15:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.51%EV -8.12%E -5.05%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -8.87%E -1.81%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -11.17%E -3.06%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.36%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.59%EV -9.80%E -2.02%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-09 17:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.59%EV -9.84%E -6.23%K -16.96%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.44%EV -9.80%E -2.02%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 24.98%EV -12.87%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.15%EV -9.27%E -5.83%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.93%EV -10.73%E -2.24%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-07 11:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.94%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -10.73%E -2.24%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 57.51%EV -13.26%E -8.72%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.21%EV -10.73%E -2.24%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.28%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-09 15:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.21%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -11.66%E -2.46%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -9.95%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-09 16:16 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.14%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -11.66%E -2.46%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-07 07:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.04%EV -12.69%E -8.29%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.37%EV -11.66%E -2.46%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.58%EV -13.60%E -3.83%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -0.135%E -0.077%K -0.180%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -12.59%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-07 15:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -0.135%E -0.077%K -0.180%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -12.59%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-07 15:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -0.135%E -0.077%K -0.180%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -12.59%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-07 15:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -0.135%E -0.077%K -0.180%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -12.59%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-07 15:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -0.135%E -0.077%K -0.180%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -12.59%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-07 15:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.16%EV -6.41%E -3.91%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -12.59%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-06 18:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.47%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.46%EV -12.59%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.59%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.26%EV -12.59%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.15%EV -8.74%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.05%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -14.45%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -8.74%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-07 01:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.49%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -14.45%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-09 16:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.49%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -14.45%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-09 16:21 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.64%EV -8.12%E -5.05%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -14.45%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-09 16:21 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.64%EV -8.12%E -5.05%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -14.45%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-09 16:21 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.30%EV -9.84%E -6.23%K -16.96%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.34%EV -14.45%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.37%EV -11.17%E -3.06%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.46%EV -2.99%E -1.76%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -16.31%E -3.62%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -16.04%E -4.65%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-07 15:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.46%EV -2.99%E -1.76%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -16.31%E -3.62%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -16.04%E -4.65%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-07 15:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.46%EV -2.99%E -1.76%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -16.31%E -3.62%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -16.04%E -4.65%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-07 15:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.46%EV -2.99%E -1.76%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -16.31%E -3.62%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -16.04%E -4.65%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-07 15:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.80%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -16.31%E -3.62%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -8.74%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-06 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.46%EV -4.70%E -2.81%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -18.17%E -4.13%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -17.25%E -5.07%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-07 15:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 53.27%EV -5.27%E -3.18%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.33%EV -19.10%E -4.39%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.40%EV -18.47%E -5.51%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-07 15:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 53.27%EV -5.27%E -3.18%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.33%EV -19.10%E -4.39%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.40%EV -18.47%E -5.51%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-07 15:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.82%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.51%EV -19.47%E -4.50%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-08 18:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 53.36%EV -8.12%E -5.05%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.21%EV -20.96%E -4.93%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.43%EV -20.90%E -6.43%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-09-07 15:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.92% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.61% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.47% | 2.2% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42% | 10.8% | 2026-09-09 17:16 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 56.61% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.67% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.72% | 14.0% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |