Idioma:Español
Burgos CF v AD Ceuta FC
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Burgos CF (Local)
Predicción 57.07%1.75momio equitativo
EV -0.135%
Ventaja -0.077%
Kelly -0.180%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.27%57.08%57.13%58.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.521.631.621.7565.79%61.24%61.73%57.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
AD Ceuta FC (Visitante)
Predicción 18.60%5.38momio equitativo
EV +0.053%
Ventaja +0.010%
Kelly +0.012%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.38
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.57%18.60%18.58%20.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.254.794.755.3823.53%20.89%21.05%18.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 24.34%4.11momio equitativo
EV -0.948%
Ventaja -0.233%
Kelly -0.309%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.07
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.26%24.31%24.30%26.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.683.654.0730.77%27.20%27.40%24.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Burgos CF (Local): 57.07%; AD Ceuta FC (Visitante): 18.60%; Empate: 24.34%. Para AD Ceuta FC (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.377. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.380, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.053%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.73%EV -8.12%E -5.05%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 5.38I 18.59%NM 17.57%EV +0.053%E +0.010%K +0.012%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 23.70%EV -2.90%E -0.726%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-09 15:46 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.90%EV -4.70%E -2.81%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -2.36%E -0.450%K -0.556%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-06 15:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.34%EV -9.84%E -6.23%K -16.96%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV -3.29%E -0.634%K -0.784%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -6.30%E -1.64%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-09 15:32 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.78%EV -5.27%E -3.18%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 5.14I 19.46%NM 18.66%EV -4.41%E -0.858%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.56%EV -0.948%E -0.233%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.64%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.08%EV -5.15%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.64%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.08%EV -5.15%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.64%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.08%EV -5.15%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%EV -4.70%E -2.81%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -2.65%E -0.663%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-07 07:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.04%EV -5.84%E -3.54%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -5.09%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-07 07:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.92%EV -8.12%E -5.05%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.43%EV -3.14%E -0.789%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.49%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.63%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -5.09%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-09 13:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -2.65%E -0.663%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 15:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-07 07:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -8.74%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-07 07:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.91%EV -8.12%E -5.05%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -9.95%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.06%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -9.95%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-09 09:38 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.06%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -7.01%E -1.40%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -9.95%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-09 09:33 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -8.87%E -1.81%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -8.87%E -1.81%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-09 15:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.51%EV -8.12%E -5.05%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -8.87%E -1.81%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -11.17%E -3.06%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.36%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.59%EV -9.80%E -2.02%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-09 17:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.59%EV -9.84%E -6.23%K -16.96%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.44%EV -9.80%E -2.02%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 24.98%EV -12.87%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.15%EV -9.27%E -5.83%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.93%EV -10.73%E -2.24%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-07 11:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.94%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -10.73%E -2.24%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 57.51%EV -13.26%E -8.72%K -25.50%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.21%EV -10.73%E -2.24%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.28%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-09 15:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.21%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -11.66%E -2.46%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -9.95%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-09 16:16 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.14%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -11.66%E -2.46%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-07 07:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.04%EV -12.69%E -8.29%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.37%EV -11.66%E -2.46%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.58%EV -13.60%E -3.83%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -0.135%E -0.077%K -0.180%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -12.59%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-07 15:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -0.135%E -0.077%K -0.180%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -12.59%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-07 15:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -0.135%E -0.077%K -0.180%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -12.59%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-07 15:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -0.135%E -0.077%K -0.180%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -12.59%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-07 15:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -0.135%E -0.077%K -0.180%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -12.59%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-07 15:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.16%EV -6.41%E -3.91%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -12.59%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-06 18:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.47%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.46%EV -12.59%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.59%EV -8.69%E -5.43%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.26%EV -12.59%E -2.68%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.15%EV -8.74%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.05%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -14.45%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -8.74%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-07 01:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.49%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -14.45%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-09 16:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.49%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -14.45%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-09 16:21 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.64%EV -8.12%E -5.05%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -14.45%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-09 16:21 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.64%EV -8.12%E -5.05%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -14.45%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-09 16:21 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.30%EV -9.84%E -6.23%K -16.96%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.34%EV -14.45%E -3.14%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.37%EV -11.17%E -3.06%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.46%EV -2.99%E -1.76%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -16.31%E -3.62%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -16.04%E -4.65%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-07 15:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.46%EV -2.99%E -1.76%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -16.31%E -3.62%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -16.04%E -4.65%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-07 15:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.46%EV -2.99%E -1.76%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -16.31%E -3.62%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -16.04%E -4.65%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-07 15:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.46%EV -2.99%E -1.76%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -16.31%E -3.62%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -16.04%E -4.65%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-07 15:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.80%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -16.31%E -3.62%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -8.74%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-06 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.46%EV -4.70%E -2.81%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -18.17%E -4.13%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -17.25%E -5.07%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-07 15:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 53.27%EV -5.27%E -3.18%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.33%EV -19.10%E -4.39%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.40%EV -18.47%E -5.51%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-07 15:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 53.27%EV -5.27%E -3.18%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.33%EV -19.10%E -4.39%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.40%EV -18.47%E -5.51%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-07 15:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.82%EV -7.55%E -4.66%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.51%EV -19.47%E -4.50%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-08 18:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 53.36%EV -8.12%E -5.05%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.21%EV -20.96%E -4.93%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.43%EV -20.90%E -6.43%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-09-07 15:05 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (3)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.92% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.61% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.47% | 2.2% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42% | 10.8% | 2026-09-09 17:16 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 56.61% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.67% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.72% | 14.0% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |