L’École des cotes

Almería v Real Sociedad B

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-29 19:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

48 opérateurs (16 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Almería (Local)

Prévision 60.38%1.66cote équitable
EV -2.79%
Avantage -1.73%
Kelly -4.57%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.61

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
58.43%60.39%60.36%61.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.401.531.531.6171.43%65.29%65.36%62.11%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Real Sociedad B (Visiteur)

Prévision 17.29%5.78cote équitable
EV +6.84%
Avantage +1.11%
Kelly +1.32%
Croissance +0.090%

avec la cote maximale 6.18

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
15.34%17.21%17.30%18.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.605.245.256.1821.74%19.07%19.05%16.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 22.33%4.48cote équitable
EV -3.97%
Avantage -0.924%
Kelly -1.20%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.55%22.40%22.34%24.19%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.754.014.004.3026.67%24.91%25.00%23.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (48 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.54I 64.94%NM 61.55%EV -7.01%E -4.55%K -12.99%G +0.000%6.18I 16.18%NM 15.34%EV +6.84%E +1.11%K +1.32%G +0.090%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.12%EV -8.44%E -2.06%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-27 23:55
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -9.43%E -6.29%K -18.86%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV +0.267%E +0.046%K +0.056%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-27 23:56
Coolbet1.56I 64.10%NM 61.20%EV -5.81%E -3.72%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.60%EV -0.598%E -0.104%K -0.126%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%EV -3.97%E -0.924%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-27 00:40
Bovada1.51I 66.23%NM 60.79%EV -8.83%E -5.84%K -17.31%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.97%EV -0.598%E -0.104%K -0.126%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.24%EV -11.79%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-27 23:59
1xBet1.59I 62.89%NM 60.25%EV -4.00%E -2.51%K -6.77%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.26%EV -4.06%E -0.731%K -0.891%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.49%EV -4.86%E -1.14%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-28 00:00
Fanatics1.56I 64.10%NM 60.74%EV -5.81%E -3.72%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -4.92%E -0.894%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -3.97%E -0.924%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-26 19:25
theScore Bet1.54I 64.94%NM 60.89%EV -7.01%E -4.55%K -12.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -4.92%E -0.894%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -5.09%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-27 00:40
DraftKings1.54I 64.94%NM 60.73%EV -7.01%E -4.55%K -12.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -4.92%E -0.894%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -6.20%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-27 00:30
Betr (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 61.20%EV -8.22%E -5.41%K -15.81%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -4.92%E -0.894%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -5.09%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-27 00:39
PointsBet (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -7.62%E -4.98%K -14.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -4.92%E -0.894%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-27 00:40
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -9.43%E -6.29%K -18.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -4.92%E -0.894%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.20%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-27 00:40
FanDuel1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -9.43%E -6.29%K -18.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -4.92%E -0.894%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.20%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-27 00:37
William Hill1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -7.62%E -4.98%K -14.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -4.92%E -0.894%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -12.90%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-27 00:39
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -7.62%E -4.98%K -14.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -4.92%E -0.894%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -12.90%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-27 00:39
ATG (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 58.63%EV -2.79%E -1.73%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.48%EV -6.65%E -1.23%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -11.79%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-26 09:25
Svenska Spel1.61I 62.11%NM 58.63%EV -2.79%E -1.73%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.48%EV -6.65%E -1.23%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -11.79%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-26 09:25
Marathon Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.22%EV -6.41%E -4.14%K -11.66%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%EV -6.65%E -1.23%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -7.32%E -1.76%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-27 23:55
Unibet1.61I 62.11%NM 58.43%EV -2.79%E -1.73%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -8.38%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -11.79%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-26 09:19
Unibet (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 58.43%EV -2.79%E -1.73%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%EV -8.38%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -11.79%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-26 09:19
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 60.03%EV -6.41%E -4.14%K -11.66%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.55%EV -8.38%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.42%EV -7.32%E -1.76%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-27 00:39
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.03%EV -6.41%E -4.14%K -11.66%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.55%EV -8.38%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.42%EV -7.32%E -1.76%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-27 00:39
Grosvenor1.56I 64.10%NM 58.74%EV -5.81%E -3.72%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.45%EV -9.24%E -1.76%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.80%EV -14.02%E -3.64%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-26 09:19
Casumo1.56I 64.10%NM 58.74%EV -5.81%E -3.72%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.45%EV -9.24%E -1.76%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.80%EV -14.02%E -3.64%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-26 09:19
TABtouch1.56I 64.10%NM 58.74%EV -5.81%E -3.72%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.45%EV -9.24%E -1.76%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.80%EV -14.02%E -3.64%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-26 09:19
betPARX1.56I 64.10%NM 58.74%EV -5.81%E -3.72%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.45%EV -9.24%E -1.76%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.80%EV -14.02%E -3.64%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-26 09:24
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36%NM 59.74%EV -7.62%E -4.98%K -14.37%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -9.24%E -1.76%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-28 02:19
PlayUp1.55I 64.52%NM 58.53%EV -6.41%E -4.14%K -11.66%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -9.24%E -1.76%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -16.25%E -4.33%K -5.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-28 00:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 58.64%EV -5.81%E -3.72%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.59%EV -10.11%E -1.94%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -14.02%E -3.64%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-26 09:19
LeoVegas1.56I 64.10%NM 58.46%EV -5.81%E -3.72%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.54%EV -10.11%E -1.94%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -15.14%E -3.98%K -5.41%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-26 09:20
NetBet (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 60.56%EV -13.66%E -9.55%K -31.76%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.65%EV -10.11%E -1.94%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.79%EV -15.14%E -3.98%K -5.41%G +0.000%15.5%2026-03-27 19:29
LiveScore Bet1.54I 64.94%NM 58.57%EV -7.01%E -4.55%K -12.99%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.69%EV -11.83%E -2.32%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -15.14%E -3.98%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-26 09:19
Virgin Bet1.54I 64.94%NM 58.57%EV -7.01%E -4.55%K -12.99%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.69%EV -11.83%E -2.32%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -15.14%E -3.98%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-26 09:20
Betway1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -6.41%E -4.14%K -11.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -13.56%E -2.71%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -6.20%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-28 00:00
BetMGM1.53I 65.36%NM 59.55%EV -7.62%E -4.98%K -14.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -13.56%E -2.71%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%EV -8.44%E -2.06%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-27 00:40
Codere (IT)1.52I 65.79%NM 59.71%EV -8.22%E -5.41%K -15.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -13.56%E -2.71%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -8.44%E -2.06%K -2.72%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-27 00:39
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -9.43%E -6.29%K -18.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -13.56%E -2.71%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -6.20%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-27 00:39
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -9.43%E -6.29%K -18.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -13.56%E -2.71%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-27 00:40
BoyleSports1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -9.43%E -6.29%K -18.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -13.56%E -2.71%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-26 16:25
Betclic (FR)1.49I 67.11%NM 59.86%EV -10.03%E -6.73%K -20.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.84%EV -13.56%E -2.71%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-27 19:59
PMU (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 61.01%EV -15.47%E -11.05%K -38.67%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.08%EV -13.56%E -2.71%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.90%EV -12.90%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000%17.1%2026-03-27 19:05
Parions Sport (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 59.75%EV -10.64%E -7.19%K -22.16%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 17.86%EV -14.43%E -2.91%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.39%EV -11.79%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-27 19:25
Unibet (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 59.75%EV -10.64%E -7.19%K -22.16%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 17.86%EV -14.43%E -2.91%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.39%EV -11.79%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-27 19:25
Ladbrokes (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 58.78%EV -7.62%E -4.98%K -14.37%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.74%EV -17.02%E -3.55%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-27 09:05
Coral1.53I 65.36%NM 58.78%EV -7.62%E -4.98%K -14.37%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.74%EV -17.02%E -3.55%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-27 09:05
Neds1.53I 65.36%NM 58.78%EV -7.62%E -4.98%K -14.37%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.74%EV -17.02%E -3.55%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-27 09:04
Ladbrokes (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 58.78%EV -7.62%E -4.98%K -14.37%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.74%EV -17.02%E -3.55%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-27 09:04
Winamax (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 59.58%EV -9.43%E -6.29%K -18.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -17.02%E -3.55%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -8.44%E -2.06%K -2.72%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-27 00:40
Winamax (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 59.28%EV -11.84%E -8.11%K -25.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.81%EV -20.48%E -4.45%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.91%EV -11.79%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000%15.5%2026-03-27 00:39
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.57I 63.69%NM 62.42%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.27%2.0%2026-03-27 23:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 62.11%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.73%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.16%2.6%2026-03-28 00:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 62.11%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.73%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.16%2.6%2026-03-27 23:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.57I 63.69%NM 62.11%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.73%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.16%2.6%2026-03-27 23:55
Smarkets1.56I 64.10%NM 61.94%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.59%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.47%3.5%2026-03-28 02:35
Kalshi1.49I 67.11%NM 59.31%5.26I 19.01%NM 16.80%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.89%13.2%2026-03-28 02:55