Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Albacete v Las Palmas

Kickoff: 2026-03-16 19:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Albacete (Local)

Prediction 33.06%3.03fair odd
EV +1.81%
Edge +0.589%
Kelly +0.872%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 3.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.87%33.01%33.09%35.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.752.753.0839.22%36.39%36.36%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Las Palmas (Visit)

Prediction 36.82%2.72fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -0.912%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.06%36.83%36.84%38.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.512.512.6544.44%39.81%39.84%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.12%3.32fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.11%30.16%30.07%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.633.033.053.2038.02%33.01%32.79%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Albacete (Local): 33.06%; Las Palmas (Visit): 36.82%; Draw: 30.12%. For Albacete (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.03. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.87%EV +1.81%E +0.589%K +0.872%G +0.016%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -9.41%E -3.83%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.48%EV -6.03%E -1.93%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-16 19:25
LowVig.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.19%EV -0.832%E -0.277%K -0.416%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.45%EV -2.42%E -0.912%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.36%EV -7.23%E -2.35%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-16 12:35
BetOnline.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.19%EV -0.832%E -0.277%K -0.416%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.45%EV -2.42%E -0.912%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.36%EV -7.23%E -2.35%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-16 12:35
Pinnacle🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.72%EV -2.15%E -0.728%K -1.10%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.82%EV -3.15%E -1.20%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.46%EV -4.22%E -1.33%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-16 19:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -4.14%E -1.43%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -7.94%E -3.18%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-16 19:25
Betway🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -4.80%E -1.67%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -7.94%E -3.18%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-16 19:05
William Hill🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -4.80%E -1.67%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -9.78%E -3.99%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-16 19:24
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.48%EV -5.79%E -2.03%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.70%EV -4.26%E -1.64%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-16 19:20
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -5.79%E -2.03%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -4.26%E -1.64%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-16 15:55
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -5.79%E -2.03%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -7.94%E -3.18%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 16:40
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -5.79%E -2.03%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -4.26%E -1.64%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-16 19:25
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -5.79%E -2.03%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 36.43%EV -6.83%E -2.70%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -11.15%E -3.78%K -5.72%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-16 19:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -5.79%E -2.03%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -7.94%E -3.18%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -11.15%E -3.78%K -5.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-16 13:29
Marathon Bet🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 32.86%EV -6.12%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.03%EV -7.20%E -2.86%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.10%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-16 19:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.44%E -2.66%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -6.10%E -2.39%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-16 19:10
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -7.44%E -2.66%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -7.94%E -3.18%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-16 19:05
BetAnything🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -7.44%E -2.66%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 36.59%EV -7.57%E -3.02%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-16 19:15
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -7.44%E -2.66%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -6.10%E -2.39%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.52%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-16 19:25
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -7.44%E -2.66%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -7.94%E -3.18%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-16 19:25
Betsson🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.17%EV -8.10%E -2.92%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.59%EV -7.20%E -2.86%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.23%EV -8.13%E -2.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-16 18:55
NordicBet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.17%EV -8.10%E -2.92%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.59%EV -7.20%E -2.86%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.23%EV -8.13%E -2.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-16 18:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -9.10%E -3.31%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -6.10%E -2.39%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-16 19:10
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -9.10%E -3.31%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -9.78%E -3.99%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-16 19:10
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -9.10%E -3.31%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -11.62%E -4.84%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-16 12:04
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -9.10%E -3.31%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -7.94%E -3.18%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -13.26%E -4.60%K -7.05%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-16 19:25
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -9.10%E -3.31%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -7.94%E -3.18%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -13.26%E -4.60%K -7.05%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-16 19:25
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -9.10%E -3.31%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -11.62%E -4.84%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-16 11:10
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.77%EV -10.75%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -2.42%E -0.912%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-16 18:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.77%EV -10.75%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -2.42%E -0.912%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-16 18:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.77%EV -10.75%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -2.42%E -0.912%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-16 18:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.77%EV -10.75%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -2.42%E -0.912%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-16 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.77%EV -10.75%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -2.42%E -0.912%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.80%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-16 18:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -10.75%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -7.94%E -3.18%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-16 19:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -10.75%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -11.62%E -4.84%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-16 19:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -10.75%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -12.36%E -5.19%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-16 12:05
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -10.75%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -12.36%E -5.19%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-16 11:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.90%EV -10.75%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.48%EV -12.73%E -5.37%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.61%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-16 11:50
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.90%EV -10.75%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.48%EV -12.73%E -5.37%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.61%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-16 12:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 33.26%EV -11.41%E -4.26%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 36.83%EV -10.89%E -4.50%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.91%EV -10.24%E -3.44%K -5.17%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-16 19:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.05%EV -12.40%E -4.68%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.83%EV -9.78%E -3.99%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-16 18:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.05%EV -12.40%E -4.68%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.27%EV -13.46%E -5.73%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.69%EV -11.15%E -3.78%K -5.72%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-16 19:25
NetBet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.78%EV -12.40%E -4.68%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.96%EV -13.46%E -5.73%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.26%EV -13.56%E -4.72%K -7.25%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-16 19:08
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.11%EV -13.06%E -4.97%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.11%EV -3.15%E -1.20%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-16 18:45
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.11%EV -13.06%E -4.97%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.11%EV -3.15%E -1.20%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-16 18:45
TABtouch🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.11%EV -13.06%E -4.97%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.11%EV -3.15%E -1.20%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-16 18:45
betPARX🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.11%EV -13.06%E -4.97%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.11%EV -3.15%E -1.20%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-16 18:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 31.56%EV -13.06%E -4.97%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 36.89%EV -17.15%E -7.62%K -13.72%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 31.56%EV -20.79%E -7.90%K -12.75%G +0.000%20.5%2026-03-16 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -14.05%E -5.41%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -4.26%E -1.64%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-16 18:50
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -14.05%E -5.41%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -4.26%E -1.64%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -8.13%E -2.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-16 18:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.90%EV -14.05%E -5.41%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.72%EV -11.62%E -4.84%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.38%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-16 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.26%EV -15.71%E -6.16%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.26%EV -6.10%E -2.39%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.48%EV -8.13%E -2.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-16 18:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.26%EV -15.71%E -6.16%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.26%EV -6.10%E -2.39%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.48%EV -8.13%E -2.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-16 18:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 32.75%EV -15.71%E -6.16%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.31%EV -15.30%E -6.65%K -11.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.93%EV -18.68%E -6.92%K -10.99%G +0.000%19.7%2026-03-16 19:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%0.8%2026-03-16 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%0.8%2026-03-16 19:25
Matchbook3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%0.8%2026-03-16 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.00I 33.33%NM 33.06%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.94%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00%0.8%2026-03-16 19:25
Smarkets3.00I 33.33%NM 32.82%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.93%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.25%1.6%2026-03-16 19:25
Kalshi2.94I 34.01%NM 32.69%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.55%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.76%4.0%2026-03-16 18:10