Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

AD Ceuta FC v Las Palmas

Início: 2026-08-22 17:00 UTC

Final: AD Ceuta FC 0–2 Las Palmas

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

53 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

AD Ceuta FC (Local)

Previsão 32.63%3.06odd justa
EV +1.16%
Vantagem +0.375%
Kelly +0.554%
Crescimento +0.006%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.32%32.63%32.64%33.46%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.672.862.853.1037.45%34.94%35.09%32.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Las Palmas (Visitante)

Previsão 39.18%2.55odd justa
EV -3.62%
Vantagem -1.47%
Kelly -2.48%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.46

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
37.39%39.19%39.24%40.82%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.102.332.322.4647.62%42.95%43.10%40.65%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 28.19%3.55odd justa
EV -1.35%
Vantagem -0.385%
Kelly -0.539%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.08%28.18%28.12%29.69%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.223.203.5033.33%31.07%31.25%28.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: AD Ceuta FC (Local): 32.63%; Las Palmas (Visitante): 39.18%; Empate: 28.19%. Para AD Ceuta FC (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.06. 5 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.10, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.16%.

Odds das casas de apostas (53 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +1.16%E +0.375%K +0.554%G +0.006%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.79%EV -9.10%E -3.92%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 06:50
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +1.16%E +0.375%K +0.554%G +0.006%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.79%EV -9.10%E -3.92%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 06:50
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +1.16%E +0.375%K +0.554%G +0.006%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.79%EV -9.10%E -3.92%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 06:50
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +1.16%E +0.375%K +0.554%G +0.006%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.79%EV -9.10%E -3.92%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 06:50
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +1.16%E +0.375%K +0.554%G +0.006%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.79%EV -9.10%E -3.92%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 06:50
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -2.10%E -0.700%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.80%EV -12.63%E -5.66%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-22 06:50
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -2.10%E -0.700%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.80%EV -12.63%E -5.66%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-22 06:50
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -2.10%E -0.700%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.80%EV -12.63%E -5.66%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-22 06:50
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -2.10%E -0.700%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.80%EV -12.63%E -5.66%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-22 06:50
Pinnacle🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 32.44%EV -2.75%E -0.924%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.30%EV -3.62%E -1.47%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.27%EV -3.60%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-22 14:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -3.73%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 15:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -3.73%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.73%EV -13.80%E -6.27%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-22 06:50
1xBet🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.63%EV -4.06%E -1.38%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.32%EV -4.40%E -1.80%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.05%EV -3.60%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-22 12:15
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -5.36%E -1.85%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -5.97%E -2.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 09:20
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -5.36%E -1.85%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -4.01%E -1.64%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 06:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -5.36%E -1.85%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.77%EV -5.18%E -2.14%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -8.39%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 15:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -5.36%E -1.85%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.77%EV -5.18%E -2.14%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -8.39%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 15:00
BetAnything🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -5.36%E -1.85%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.77%EV -5.18%E -2.14%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -8.39%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 15:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.62%EV -5.36%E -1.85%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.73%EV -14.59%E -6.69%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.65%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-22 06:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.62%EV -5.36%E -1.85%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.73%EV -14.59%E -6.69%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.65%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-22 06:50
Betway🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -6.02%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -5.97%E -2.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 08:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -6.02%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -5.97%E -2.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 06:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.65%EV -6.67%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -6.75%E -2.84%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.12%EV -6.42%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 12:09
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31%EV -7.00%E -2.45%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.56%EV -5.97%E -2.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -1.35%E -0.385%K -0.539%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 11:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -7.00%E -2.45%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -5.97%E -2.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 06:29
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -7.00%E -2.45%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -4.01%E -1.64%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 11:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.48%EV -7.00%E -2.45%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.73%EV -8.71%E -3.74%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.80%EV -6.14%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 06:18
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.42%EV -7.00%E -2.45%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.15%EV -7.53%E -3.19%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -8.39%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-22 12:14
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -7.00%E -2.45%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.60%EV -6.75%E -2.84%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 06:18
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -7.00%E -2.45%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.60%EV -6.75%E -2.84%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 06:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -7.00%E -2.45%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.59%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-22 06:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -7.93%E -3.37%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 07:04
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 07:05
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -5.97%E -2.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 11:19
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -7.93%E -3.37%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 06:25
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -6.75%E -2.84%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 06:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -7.93%E -3.37%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 06:25
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.19%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.19%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-22 12:14
PMU (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.61%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.82%EV -17.72%E -8.44%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -15.44%E -5.15%K -7.72%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-22 06:50
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.75%E -2.84%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 11:59
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-22 14:55
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-22 14:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.39%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-22 06:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.98%EV -6.75%E -2.84%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-22 14:00
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 14:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 06:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 06:25
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 06:25
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 06:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -11.89%E -4.40%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-22 06:20
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -11.89%E -4.40%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -6.75%E -2.84%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -15.44%E -5.15%K -7.72%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-22 11:19
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -11.89%E -4.40%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.43%EV -11.84%E -5.26%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.72%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-22 09:15
NetBet (FR)🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 32.64%EV -12.87%E -4.82%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 39.25%EV -13.02%E -5.86%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.11%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-22 11:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 32.66%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.1%2026-08-22 09:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.94%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.00%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.06%1.2%2026-08-22 15:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.94%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.00%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.06%1.2%2026-08-22 15:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.94%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.00%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.06%1.2%2026-08-22 15:10
Smarkets◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.79%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.84%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.37%1.6%2026-08-22 15:05
Matchbook◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.54%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.74%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.71%2.4%2026-08-22 15:20