Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

AD Ceuta FC v Las Palmas

Inicio: 2026-08-22 17:00 UTC

Final: AD Ceuta FC 0–2 Las Palmas

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

AD Ceuta FC (Local)

Predicción 32.63%3.06momio equitativo
EV +1.16%
Ventaja +0.375%
Kelly +0.554%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.32%32.63%32.64%33.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.672.862.853.1037.45%34.94%35.09%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Las Palmas (Visitante)

Predicción 39.18%2.55momio equitativo
EV -3.62%
Ventaja -1.47%
Kelly -2.48%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.46

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.39%39.19%39.24%40.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.332.322.4647.62%42.95%43.10%40.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.19%3.55momio equitativo
EV -1.35%
Ventaja -0.385%
Kelly -0.539%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.08%28.18%28.12%29.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.223.203.5033.33%31.07%31.25%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: AD Ceuta FC (Local): 32.63%; Las Palmas (Visitante): 39.18%; Empate: 28.19%. Para AD Ceuta FC (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.06. 5 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.10, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.16%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +1.16%E +0.375%K +0.554%G +0.006%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.79%EV -9.10%E -3.92%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 06:50
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +1.16%E +0.375%K +0.554%G +0.006%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.79%EV -9.10%E -3.92%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 06:50
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +1.16%E +0.375%K +0.554%G +0.006%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.79%EV -9.10%E -3.92%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 06:50
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +1.16%E +0.375%K +0.554%G +0.006%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.79%EV -9.10%E -3.92%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 06:50
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +1.16%E +0.375%K +0.554%G +0.006%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.79%EV -9.10%E -3.92%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 06:50
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -2.10%E -0.700%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.80%EV -12.63%E -5.66%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-22 06:50
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -2.10%E -0.700%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.80%EV -12.63%E -5.66%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-22 06:50
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -2.10%E -0.700%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.80%EV -12.63%E -5.66%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-22 06:50
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -2.10%E -0.700%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.80%EV -12.63%E -5.66%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-22 06:50
Pinnacle🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 32.44%EV -2.75%E -0.924%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.30%EV -3.62%E -1.47%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.27%EV -3.60%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-22 14:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -3.73%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 15:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -3.73%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.73%EV -13.80%E -6.27%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-22 06:50
1xBet🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.63%EV -4.06%E -1.38%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.32%EV -4.40%E -1.80%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.05%EV -3.60%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-22 12:15
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -5.36%E -1.85%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -5.97%E -2.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 09:20
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -5.36%E -1.85%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -4.01%E -1.64%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 06:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -5.36%E -1.85%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.77%EV -5.18%E -2.14%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -8.39%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 15:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -5.36%E -1.85%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.77%EV -5.18%E -2.14%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -8.39%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 15:00
BetAnything🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -5.36%E -1.85%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.77%EV -5.18%E -2.14%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -8.39%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 15:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.62%EV -5.36%E -1.85%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.73%EV -14.59%E -6.69%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.65%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-22 06:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.62%EV -5.36%E -1.85%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.73%EV -14.59%E -6.69%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.65%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-22 06:50
Betway🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -6.02%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -5.97%E -2.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 08:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -6.02%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -5.97%E -2.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 06:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.65%EV -6.67%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -6.75%E -2.84%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.12%EV -6.42%E -1.93%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 12:09
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31%EV -7.00%E -2.45%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.56%EV -5.97%E -2.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -1.35%E -0.385%K -0.539%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 11:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -7.00%E -2.45%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -5.97%E -2.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 06:29
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -7.00%E -2.45%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -4.01%E -1.64%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 11:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.48%EV -7.00%E -2.45%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.73%EV -8.71%E -3.74%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.80%EV -6.14%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 06:18
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.42%EV -7.00%E -2.45%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.15%EV -7.53%E -3.19%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -8.39%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-22 12:14
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -7.00%E -2.45%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.60%EV -6.75%E -2.84%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 06:18
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -7.00%E -2.45%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.60%EV -6.75%E -2.84%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 06:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -7.00%E -2.45%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.59%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-22 06:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -7.93%E -3.37%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 07:04
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -4.17%E -1.23%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 07:05
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -5.97%E -2.49%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 11:19
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -7.93%E -3.37%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 06:25
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -6.75%E -2.84%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 06:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -7.93%E -3.37%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 06:25
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.19%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.19%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-22 12:14
PMU (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.61%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.82%EV -17.72%E -8.44%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -15.44%E -5.15%K -7.72%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-22 06:50
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.75%E -2.84%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 11:59
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-22 14:55
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.99%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-22 14:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.39%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-22 06:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.98%EV -6.75%E -2.84%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-22 14:00
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 14:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 06:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 06:25
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 06:25
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 06:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -11.89%E -4.40%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.88%E -4.30%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-22 06:20
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -11.89%E -4.40%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -6.75%E -2.84%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -15.44%E -5.15%K -7.72%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-22 11:19
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -11.89%E -4.40%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.43%EV -11.84%E -5.26%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.72%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-22 09:15
NetBet (FR)🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 32.64%EV -12.87%E -4.82%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 39.25%EV -13.02%E -5.86%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.11%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-22 11:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 32.66%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.1%2026-08-22 09:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.94%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.00%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.06%1.2%2026-08-22 15:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.94%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.00%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.06%1.2%2026-08-22 15:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.94%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.00%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.06%1.2%2026-08-22 15:10
Smarkets◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.79%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.84%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.37%1.6%2026-08-22 15:05
Matchbook◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.54%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.74%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.71%2.4%2026-08-22 15:20