Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Villarreal v Levante

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 12:00 UTC

Final: Villarreal 5–1 Levante

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Villarreal (Local)

Prediction 53.70%1.86fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -2.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.15%53.77%53.68%56.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.751.751.8260.24%57.21%57.14%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Levante (Visit)

Prediction 23.11%4.33fair odd
EV +2.83%
Edge +0.636%
Kelly +0.821%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.67%23.02%23.07%24.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.114.104.4527.78%24.31%24.39%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.20%4.31fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.389%
Kelly -0.509%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.19%23.21%23.25%25.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.404.054.104.2429.41%24.68%24.39%23.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Villarreal (Local): 53.70%; Levante (Visit): 23.11%; Draw: 23.20%. For Levante (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.33. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.83%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.82%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.80%EV +2.83%E +0.636%K +0.821%G +0.023%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.38%EV -3.74%E -0.901%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 11:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.11%EV -5.49%E -3.12%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.80%EV +2.83%E +0.636%K +0.821%G +0.023%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.09%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 11:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.42%EV -3.35%E -1.86%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.26%EV +1.68%E +0.381%K +0.493%G +0.008%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.32%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-02 11:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.83%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%EV +1.68%E +0.381%K +0.493%G +0.008%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-02 11:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.83%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%EV +1.68%E +0.381%K +0.493%G +0.008%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-02 11:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.97%EV -5.49%E -3.12%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%EV +1.68%E +0.381%K +0.493%G +0.008%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.04%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-02 11:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.57%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.15%EV +0.752%E +0.173%K +0.224%G +0.002%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.27%EV -3.74%E -0.901%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-02 11:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.57%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.15%EV +0.752%E +0.173%K +0.224%G +0.002%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.27%EV -3.74%E -0.901%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-02 11:40
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.81%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.30%EV +0.521%E +0.120%K +0.156%G +0.001%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.88%EV -1.65%E -0.389%K -0.509%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 11:53
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -6.57%E -3.78%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -0.634%E -0.147%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 11:55
Casumo🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -6.57%E -3.78%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -0.634%E -0.147%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 11:55
Bally Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -6.57%E -3.78%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -0.634%E -0.147%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 11:55
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -6.57%E -3.78%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -0.634%E -0.147%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 11:55
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%EV -7.64%E -4.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -0.634%E -0.147%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 11:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%EV -7.64%E -4.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -0.634%E -0.147%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 11:21
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%EV -7.64%E -4.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -0.634%E -0.147%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 11:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.14%EV -10.86%E -6.54%K -16.46%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -0.634%E -0.147%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 11:50
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.65%EV -8.18%E -4.78%K -11.52%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -1.79%E -0.421%K -0.551%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 11:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -8.72%E -5.13%K -12.45%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -1.79%E -0.421%K -0.551%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 11:55
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%EV -2.27%E -1.25%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 23.00%EV -2.48%E -0.588%K -0.771%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-02 11:55
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.03%E -3.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -2.95%E -0.701%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-02 11:11
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.79%EV -9.79%E -5.83%K -14.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -2.95%E -0.701%K -0.920%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -8.38%E -2.12%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 11:55
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.65%EV -2.27%E -1.25%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.09%EV -4.10%E -0.988%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.26%EV -8.38%E -2.12%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-02 11:45
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.65%EV -2.27%E -1.25%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.09%EV -4.10%E -0.988%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.26%EV -8.38%E -2.12%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-02 11:45
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.35%E -1.86%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-02 11:54
Everygame🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -3.35%E -1.86%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 11:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 11:55
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.24%EV -6.03%E -3.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 11:55
Bovada🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.22%EV -4.42%E -2.48%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 11:54
BetUS🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.22%EV -4.42%E -2.48%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 11:55
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.39%EV -6.57%E -3.78%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 11:10
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.36%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 11:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.03%E -3.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 11:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.65%EV -5.49%E -3.12%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.32%EV -6.41%E -1.58%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 11:55
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.07%EV -6.57%E -3.78%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 11:50
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 11:10
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -7.11%E -4.11%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 11:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -7.11%E -4.11%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 11:10
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -7.11%E -4.11%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 11:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -7.11%E -4.11%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.36%EV -7.64%E -4.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 11:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.03%E -3.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 11:55
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -6.03%E -3.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -9.54%E -2.45%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 11:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -6.03%E -3.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -9.54%E -2.45%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 11:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -8.18%E -4.78%K -11.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -8.38%E -2.12%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 11:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -8.18%E -4.78%K -11.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -8.38%E -2.12%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 11:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.19%EV -9.79%E -5.83%K -14.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -8.38%E -2.12%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 11:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.20%EV -8.72%E -5.13%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -8.72%E -2.21%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 11:55
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.73%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -9.88%E -2.53%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 11:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -6.03%E -3.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -9.88%E -2.53%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 11:50
Bet Right🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.46%EV -6.57%E -3.78%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -9.88%E -2.53%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 11:50
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -3.35%E -1.86%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -9.88%E -2.53%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -11.86%E -3.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 11:55
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -6.03%E -3.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -9.88%E -2.53%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 11:45
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.10%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -11.03%E -2.87%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -10.70%E -2.78%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 11:55
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -6.03%E -3.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -12.19%E -3.21%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 11:45
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.34%EV -7.11%E -4.11%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -12.19%E -3.21%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -11.86%E -3.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 11:50
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.18%EV -7.11%E -4.11%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -13.34%E -3.56%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -11.86%E -3.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-02 11:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.15%EV -10.33%E -6.18%K -15.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.73%EV -16.81%E -4.67%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.12%EV -21.13%E -6.22%K -8.81%G +0.000%17.1%2026-05-02 11:46
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 54.01%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.20%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.79%0.1%2026-05-02 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.84I 54.35%NM 54.14%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.14%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.72%0.4%2026-05-02 11:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.85I 54.05%NM 53.74%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.67%0.6%2026-05-02 11:55
Matchbook1.84I 54.35%NM 53.87%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.60%0.9%2026-05-02 11:55
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.78%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.78%0.9%2026-05-02 11:55
Smarkets1.84I 54.35%NM 53.59%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.93%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.48%1.4%2026-05-02 11:55