La escuela de los momios

Villarreal v Levante

Inicio: 2026-05-02 12:00 UTC

Final: Villarreal 5–1 Levante

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Villarreal (Local)

Predicción 53.70%1.86momio equitativo
EV -2.27%
Ventaja -1.25%
Kelly -2.77%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.82

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.15%53.77%53.68%56.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.661.751.751.8260.24%57.21%57.14%54.95%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Levante (Visitante)

Predicción 23.11%4.33momio equitativo
EV +2.83%
Ventaja +0.636%
Kelly +0.821%
Crecimiento +0.023%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.67%23.02%23.07%24.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.114.104.4527.78%24.31%24.39%22.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.20%4.31momio equitativo
EV -1.65%
Ventaja -0.389%
Kelly -0.509%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.24

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.19%23.21%23.25%25.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.404.054.104.2429.41%24.68%24.39%23.58%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet1.77I 56.50%NM 54.82%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.80%EV +2.83%E +0.636%K +0.821%G +0.023%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.38%EV -3.74%E -0.901%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 11:45
Marathon Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 55.11%EV -5.49%E -3.12%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.80%EV +2.83%E +0.636%K +0.821%G +0.023%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.09%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 11:50
ATG (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 54.42%EV -3.35%E -1.86%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.26%EV +1.68%E +0.381%K +0.493%G +0.008%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.32%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-02 11:55
Unibet (SE)1.77I 56.50%NM 54.83%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%EV +1.68%E +0.381%K +0.493%G +0.008%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-02 11:55
Svenska Spel1.77I 56.50%NM 54.83%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%EV +1.68%E +0.381%K +0.493%G +0.008%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-02 11:55
Unibet (NL)1.76I 56.82%NM 54.97%EV -5.49%E -3.12%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%EV +1.68%E +0.381%K +0.493%G +0.008%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.04%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-02 11:55
BetOnline.ag1.77I 56.50%NM 54.57%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.15%EV +0.752%E +0.173%K +0.224%G +0.002%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.27%EV -3.74%E -0.901%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-02 11:45
LowVig.ag1.77I 56.50%NM 54.57%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.15%EV +0.752%E +0.173%K +0.224%G +0.002%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.27%EV -3.74%E -0.901%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-02 11:40
1xBet1.77I 56.50%NM 54.81%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.30%EV +0.521%E +0.120%K +0.156%G +0.001%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.88%EV -1.65%E -0.389%K -0.509%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-02 11:53
Grosvenor1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -6.57%E -3.78%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -0.634%E -0.147%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 11:55
Casumo1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -6.57%E -3.78%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -0.634%E -0.147%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 11:55
Bally Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -6.57%E -3.78%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -0.634%E -0.147%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 11:55
betPARX1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -6.57%E -3.78%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -0.634%E -0.147%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 11:55
TABtouch1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%EV -7.64%E -4.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -0.634%E -0.147%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 11:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%EV -7.64%E -4.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -0.634%E -0.147%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 11:21
Unibet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%EV -7.64%E -4.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -0.634%E -0.147%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 11:20
Unibet (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.14%EV -10.86%E -6.54%K -16.46%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -0.634%E -0.147%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 11:50
BetRivers1.71I 58.48%NM 54.65%EV -8.18%E -4.78%K -11.52%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.99%EV -1.79%E -0.421%K -0.551%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 11:55
PMU (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -8.72%E -5.13%K -12.45%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -1.79%E -0.421%K -0.551%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 11:55
Pinnacle1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%EV -2.27%E -1.25%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 23.00%EV -2.48%E -0.588%K -0.771%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-02 11:55
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.03%E -3.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -2.95%E -0.701%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-02 11:11
LeoVegas1.68I 59.52%NM 54.79%EV -9.79%E -5.83%K -14.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -2.95%E -0.701%K -0.920%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -8.38%E -2.12%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 11:55
Betsson1.82I 54.95%NM 52.65%EV -2.27%E -1.25%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.09%EV -4.10%E -0.988%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.26%EV -8.38%E -2.12%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-02 11:45
NordicBet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.65%EV -2.27%E -1.25%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.09%EV -4.10%E -0.988%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.26%EV -8.38%E -2.12%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-02 11:45
DraftKings1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.35%E -1.86%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.38%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-02 11:54
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -3.35%E -1.86%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 11:50
Codere (IT)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 11:55
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 54.24%EV -6.03%E -3.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 11:55
Bovada1.78I 56.18%NM 53.22%EV -4.42%E -2.48%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 11:54
BetUS1.78I 56.18%NM 53.22%EV -4.42%E -2.48%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 11:55
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 54.39%EV -6.57%E -3.78%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 11:10
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 53.36%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 11:45
Tipico (DE)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.03%E -3.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -5.26%E -1.28%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 11:50
Betclic (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.65%EV -5.49%E -3.12%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.32%EV -6.41%E -1.58%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 11:55
theScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.07%EV -6.57%E -3.78%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 11:50
Betway1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 11:10
betfred_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -7.11%E -4.11%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 11:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -7.11%E -4.11%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 11:10
Neds1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -7.11%E -4.11%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 11:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -7.11%E -4.11%K -9.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 11:10
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.36%EV -7.64%E -4.44%K -10.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -2.58%E -0.614%K -0.806%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 11:55
Unibet (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.03%E -3.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 11:55
William Hill1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -6.03%E -3.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -9.54%E -2.45%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 11:50
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -6.03%E -3.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -9.54%E -2.45%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 11:50
LiveScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -8.18%E -4.78%K -11.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -8.38%E -2.12%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 11:54
Virgin Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -8.18%E -4.78%K -11.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -8.38%E -2.12%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 11:55
NetBet (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 54.19%EV -9.79%E -5.83%K -14.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -7.57%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -8.38%E -2.12%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 11:45
Winamax (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.20%EV -8.72%E -5.13%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -8.72%E -2.21%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 11:55
FanDuel1.77I 56.50%NM 52.73%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -9.88%E -2.53%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 11:45
Betr (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -6.03%E -3.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -9.88%E -2.53%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 11:50
Bet Right1.74I 57.47%NM 53.46%EV -6.57%E -3.78%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -9.88%E -2.53%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -4.90%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 11:50
TAB1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -3.35%E -1.86%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -9.88%E -2.53%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -11.86%E -3.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 11:55
SportsBet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -6.03%E -3.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -9.88%E -2.53%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 11:45
PlayUp1.77I 56.50%NM 52.10%EV -4.96%E -2.80%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -11.03%E -2.87%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -10.70%E -2.78%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 11:55
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -6.03%E -3.45%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -12.19%E -3.21%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.22%E -1.80%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 11:45
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 52.34%EV -7.11%E -4.11%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -12.19%E -3.21%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -11.86%E -3.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 11:50
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80%NM 52.18%EV -7.11%E -4.11%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -13.34%E -3.56%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -11.86%E -3.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-02 11:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 51.15%EV -10.33%E -6.18%K -15.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.73%EV -16.81%E -4.67%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.12%EV -21.13%E -6.22%K -8.81%G +0.000%17.1%2026-05-02 11:46
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 54.01%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.20%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.79%0.1%2026-05-02 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.84I 54.35%NM 54.14%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.14%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.72%0.4%2026-05-02 11:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.85I 54.05%NM 53.74%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.67%0.6%2026-05-02 11:55
Matchbook1.84I 54.35%NM 53.87%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.60%0.9%2026-05-02 11:55
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.78%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.78%0.9%2026-05-02 11:55
Smarkets1.84I 54.35%NM 53.59%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.93%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.48%1.4%2026-05-02 11:55