La escuela de los momios

Villarreal v Celta Vigo

Inicio: 2026-04-26 19:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Villarreal (Local)

Predicción 45.92%2.18momio equitativo
EV -1.27%
Ventaja -0.592%
Kelly -1.11%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.66%45.95%46.02%48.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.952.042.052.1551.28%49.03%48.78%46.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Celta Vigo (Visitante)

Predicción 25.95%3.85momio equitativo
EV +2.50%
Ventaja +0.633%
Kelly +0.848%
Crecimiento +0.021%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.16%25.94%26.05%28.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.633.603.9532.26%27.54%27.78%25.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.13%3.55momio equitativo
EV -1.54%
Ventaja -0.441%
Kelly -0.617%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.76%28.10%27.94%29.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.343.393.5032.26%29.93%29.50%28.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Betsson1.98I 50.51%NM 48.19%EV -9.08%E -4.59%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.16%EV +2.50%E +0.633%K +0.848%G +0.021%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.66%EV -2.95%E -0.855%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-24 00:25
1xBet2.15I 46.51%NM 45.74%EV -1.27%E -0.592%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 25.34%EV +0.685%E +0.177%K +0.238%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.92%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.7%2026-04-24 03:40
Unibet (SE)2.06I 48.54%NM 47.09%EV -5.41%E -2.62%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -0.093%E -0.024%K -0.033%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.72%EV -1.54%E -0.441%K -0.617%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-23 22:10
Unibet (NL)2.06I 48.54%NM 47.09%EV -5.41%E -2.62%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -0.093%E -0.024%K -0.033%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.72%EV -1.54%E -0.441%K -0.617%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-23 22:10
ATG (SE)2.06I 48.54%NM 47.09%EV -5.41%E -2.62%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -0.093%E -0.024%K -0.033%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.72%EV -1.54%E -0.441%K -0.617%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-23 22:09
Svenska Spel2.06I 48.54%NM 47.09%EV -5.41%E -2.62%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -0.093%E -0.024%K -0.033%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.72%EV -1.54%E -0.441%K -0.617%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-23 22:09
Marathon Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 45.71%EV -2.65%E -1.25%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.37%EV -0.872%E -0.228%K -0.309%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.93%EV -5.76%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-24 03:35
LowVig.ag2.11I 47.39%NM 45.79%EV -3.11%E -1.47%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.36%EV -1.13%E -0.297%K -0.403%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.84%EV -5.76%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-24 00:35
BetOnline.ag2.11I 47.39%NM 45.79%EV -3.11%E -1.47%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.36%EV -1.13%E -0.297%K -0.403%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.84%EV -5.76%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-24 00:40
Pinnacle2.09I 47.85%NM 45.55%EV -4.03%E -1.93%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.98%EV -1.13%E -0.297%K -0.403%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.47%EV -9.14%E -2.83%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 21:55
Bovada2.09I 47.85%NM 45.39%EV -4.03%E -1.93%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -1.39%E -0.366%K -0.497%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 21:49
BetUS2.09I 47.85%NM 45.39%EV -4.03%E -1.93%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -1.39%E -0.366%K -0.497%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 21:49
DraftKings2.10I 47.62%NM 45.73%EV -3.57%E -1.70%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.61%EV -2.69%E -0.717%K -0.977%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.67%EV -5.76%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-23 21:45
Casumo2.02I 49.50%NM 46.89%EV -7.24%E -3.59%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -2.69%E -0.717%K -0.977%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 22:10
Grosvenor2.02I 49.50%NM 46.89%EV -7.24%E -3.59%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -2.69%E -0.717%K -0.977%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 22:09
betPARX2.02I 49.50%NM 46.89%EV -7.24%E -3.59%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -2.69%E -0.717%K -0.977%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 22:10
Bally Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.89%EV -7.24%E -3.59%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -2.69%E -0.717%K -0.977%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 22:09
NordicBet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -2.65%E -1.25%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -3.99%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.31%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 21:44
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -3.99%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 23:05
LeoVegas (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -3.99%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 22:10
TABtouch2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -3.99%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 22:10
Unibet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -3.99%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 22:10
BetRivers1.97I 50.76%NM 47.16%EV -9.54%E -4.84%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -3.99%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -5.76%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 22:10
PMU (FR)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.16%EV -9.54%E -4.84%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -3.99%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -5.76%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 22:10
TAB2.00I 50.00%NM 45.97%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -3.99%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -11.39%E -3.62%K -5.30%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 21:49
Everygame2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -5.28%E -1.45%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -12.80%E -4.13%K -6.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-24 03:10
LeoVegas1.95I 51.28%NM 47.06%EV -10.46%E -5.36%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -5.28%E -1.45%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 22:09
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -3.57%E -1.70%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-24 00:10
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-24 00:04
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 21:49
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 21:45
Fanatics2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 21:43
Betway2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -3.57%E -1.70%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-24 03:05
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 21:45
Ladbrokes (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 21:45
Neds2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 21:44
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-24 00:10
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-24 00:09
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -9.98%E -3.12%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-24 00:09
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 23:05
PlayUp2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.58%E -1.83%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -12.80%E -4.13%K -6.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 21:45
Codere (IT)2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -4.03%E -1.93%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.83%EV -7.88%E -2.22%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.60%EV -2.95%E -0.855%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 23:05
NetBet (FR)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.65%EV -7.24%E -3.59%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -7.88%E -2.22%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.37%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-24 03:05
Betclic (FR)2.03I 49.26%NM 45.96%EV -6.78%E -3.34%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.43%EV -8.40%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.61%EV -4.92%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 23:09
Unibet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -9.18%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -7.17%E -2.17%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 23:04
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -10.46%E -5.36%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.18%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-23 21:40
Virgin Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -10.46%E -5.36%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.18%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-23 22:09
LiveScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -10.46%E -5.36%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.18%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -8.58%E -2.64%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-23 22:10
betfred_uk2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -3.57%E -1.70%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -11.77%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -1.54%E -0.441%K -0.617%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 21:49
Betr (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -11.77%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -1.54%E -0.441%K -0.617%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 21:50
theScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -11.77%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -1.54%E -0.441%K -0.617%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 21:50
Bet Right2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -11.77%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 21:49
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -14.37%E -4.35%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 21:45
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -5.86%E -2.86%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -14.37%E -4.35%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 21:45
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -14.37%E -4.35%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -4.36%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-23 21:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -8.16%E -4.08%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -19.56%E -6.31%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -12.80%E -4.13%K -6.09%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-24 00:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.16I 46.30%NM 45.57%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.90%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53%1.6%2026-04-24 00:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.16I 46.30%NM 45.41%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.16%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.43%1.9%2026-04-24 00:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.16I 46.30%NM 45.41%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.16%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.43%1.9%2026-04-24 00:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.16I 46.30%NM 45.41%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.16%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.43%1.9%2026-04-24 00:35
Kalshi2.13I 46.95%NM 45.60%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.23%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.17%3.0%2026-04-24 00:10
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 44.55%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.12%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.33%4.9%2026-04-24 03:35