Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Sociedad v Getafe

Kickoff: 2026-04-22 18:00 UTC

Final: Real Sociedad 0–1 Getafe

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Sociedad (Local)

Prediction 42.29%2.36fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.626%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.97%42.32%42.29%43.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.232.232.3347.62%44.91%44.94%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Getafe (Visit)

Prediction 26.24%3.81fair odd
EV -0.283%
Edge -0.074%
Kelly -0.101%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.79%26.28%26.28%27.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.593.603.8032.26%27.85%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.47%3.18fair odd
EV -0.566%
Edge -0.179%
Kelly -0.262%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.82%31.40%31.44%32.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.013.003.1636.36%33.19%33.33%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Sociedad (Local): 42.29%; Getafe (Visit): 26.24%; Draw: 31.47%. For Getafe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.81. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.80, with an expected value of -0.283%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.47%EV -1.46%E -0.626%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.54%EV -4.48%E -1.23%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.99%EV -4.97%E -1.65%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-22 17:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.47%EV -1.46%E -0.626%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.54%EV -4.48%E -1.23%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.99%EV -4.97%E -1.65%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-22 17:39
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.91%EV -1.88%E -0.811%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.79%EV -1.07%E -0.284%K -0.386%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.30%EV -5.29%E -1.76%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-22 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.46%EV -2.73%E -1.19%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04%EV -1.59%E -0.425%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.50%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-22 17:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.17%EV -2.73%E -1.19%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.93%EV -1.86%E -0.497%K -0.678%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.90%EV -4.34%E -1.43%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-22 17:54
1xBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.15%EV -2.73%E -1.19%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.27%EV -3.17%E -0.859%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.58%EV -3.40%E -1.11%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 17:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.67%EV -3.57%E -1.57%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.94%EV -1.59%E -0.425%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.38%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-22 17:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.67%EV -3.57%E -1.57%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.94%EV -1.59%E -0.425%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.38%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-22 17:54
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.99%EV -3.57%E -1.57%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.88%EV -2.91%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.13%EV -6.23%E -2.09%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-22 17:50
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.99%EV -3.57%E -1.57%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.88%EV -2.91%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.13%EV -6.23%E -2.09%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-22 17:50
Coolbet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.78%EV -4.00%E -1.76%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.90%EV -1.59%E -0.425%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.33%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-22 17:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.22%EV -4.42%E -1.96%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -4.03%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-22 17:54
Bovada🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.07%EV -4.42%E -1.96%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.91%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.23%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-22 17:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.14%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -0.283%E -0.074%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.31%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-22 17:30
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.63%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.92%EV -2.91%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.45%EV -4.03%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-22 17:44
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.30%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.24%EV -0.566%E -0.179%K -0.262%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 15:39
Everygame🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.26%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -4.22%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.69%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-22 17:44
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 17:50
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 17:50
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.18%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -2.91%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-22 17:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-22 17:50
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.97%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -10.78%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.26%EV -1.82%E -0.585%K -0.861%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-22 17:55
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 17:49
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 15:40
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -8.75%E -3.02%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 17:49
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.85%EV -5.69%E -2.55%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.82%EV -2.91%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.33%EV -4.03%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 17:30
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.85%EV -5.69%E -2.55%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.82%EV -2.91%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.33%EV -4.03%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 17:30
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.63%EV -5.69%E -2.55%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -2.91%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.68%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-22 17:54
Bally Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.48%EV -5.69%E -2.55%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%EV -4.22%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-22 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.57%EV -6.11%E -2.75%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.19%EV -4.66%E -1.54%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-22 17:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -4.03%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 17:50
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -4.22%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 17:30
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -4.22%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 17:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -4.22%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 17:30
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 15:10
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-22 17:50
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-22 17:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -4.03%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-22 17:54
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -2.91%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.75%E -3.02%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 17:45
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -9.47%E -2.74%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -4.03%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-22 17:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 17:50
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 17:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 17:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.27%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.84%E -1.93%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 17:50
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -9.38%E -3.26%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-22 17:44
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -8.75%E -3.02%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-22 17:50
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -8.75%E -3.02%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-22 17:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -10.78%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-22 17:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -10.78%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-22 17:54
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -7.80%E -3.58%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 17:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -7.80%E -3.58%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.52%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 17:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -9.07%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -0.283%E -0.074%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -9.07%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -6.84%E -1.93%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-22 17:50
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -9.07%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -10.78%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 17:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -9.07%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -10.78%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 17:54
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -9.07%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -6.84%E -1.93%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 17:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.97%EV -11.19%E -5.33%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.75%EV -18.65%E -6.02%K -8.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.28%EV -13.47%E -4.90%K -7.70%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-22 17:42
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.38I 42.02%NM 41.97%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.29%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.75%0.1%2026-04-22 17:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63%0.5%2026-04-22 17:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63%0.5%2026-04-22 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63%0.5%2026-04-22 17:54
Smarkets2.34I 42.74%NM 41.88%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.67%2.0%2026-04-22 17:54
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 42.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.21%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.08%3.1%2026-04-22 17:55