La escuela de los momios

Real Sociedad v Getafe

Inicio: 2026-04-22 18:00 UTC

Final: Real Sociedad 0–1 Getafe

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Real Sociedad (Local)

Predicción 42.29%2.36momio equitativo
EV -1.46%
Ventaja -0.626%
Kelly -1.10%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.97%42.32%42.29%43.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.102.232.232.3347.62%44.91%44.94%42.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Getafe (Visitante)

Predicción 26.24%3.81momio equitativo
EV -0.283%
Ventaja -0.074%
Kelly -0.101%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.79%26.28%26.28%27.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.593.603.8032.26%27.85%27.78%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 31.47%3.18momio equitativo
EV -0.566%
Ventaja -0.179%
Kelly -0.262%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.16

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.82%31.40%31.44%32.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.013.003.1636.36%33.19%33.33%31.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag2.33I 42.92%NM 41.47%EV -1.46%E -0.626%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.54%EV -4.48%E -1.23%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.99%EV -4.97%E -1.65%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-22 17:39
BetOnline.ag2.33I 42.92%NM 41.47%EV -1.46%E -0.626%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.54%EV -4.48%E -1.23%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.99%EV -4.97%E -1.65%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-22 17:39
Pinnacle2.32I 43.10%NM 41.91%EV -1.88%E -0.811%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.79%EV -1.07%E -0.284%K -0.386%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.30%EV -5.29%E -1.76%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-22 17:55
ATG (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.46%EV -2.73%E -1.19%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04%EV -1.59%E -0.425%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.50%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-22 17:30
Marathon Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 42.17%EV -2.73%E -1.19%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.93%EV -1.86%E -0.497%K -0.678%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.90%EV -4.34%E -1.43%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-22 17:54
1xBet2.30I 43.48%NM 42.15%EV -2.73%E -1.19%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.27%EV -3.17%E -0.859%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.58%EV -3.40%E -1.11%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 17:50
Unibet (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 42.67%EV -3.57%E -1.57%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.94%EV -1.59%E -0.425%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.38%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-22 17:54
Svenska Spel2.28I 43.86%NM 42.67%EV -3.57%E -1.57%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.94%EV -1.59%E -0.425%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.38%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-22 17:54
NordicBet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.99%EV -3.57%E -1.57%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.88%EV -2.91%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.13%EV -6.23%E -2.09%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-22 17:50
Betsson2.28I 43.86%NM 41.99%EV -3.57%E -1.57%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.88%EV -2.91%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.13%EV -6.23%E -2.09%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-22 17:50
Coolbet2.27I 44.05%NM 42.78%EV -4.00%E -1.76%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.90%EV -1.59%E -0.425%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.33%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-22 17:30
Codere (IT)2.26I 44.25%NM 42.22%EV -4.42%E -1.96%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -4.03%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-22 17:54
Bovada2.26I 44.25%NM 42.07%EV -4.42%E -1.96%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.91%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.23%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-22 17:54
Unibet (NL)2.25I 44.44%NM 43.14%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -0.283%E -0.074%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.31%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-22 17:30
DraftKings2.25I 44.44%NM 42.63%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.92%EV -2.91%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.45%EV -4.03%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-22 17:44
BetUS2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.30%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.24%EV -0.566%E -0.179%K -0.262%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 15:39
Everygame2.25I 44.44%NM 42.26%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -4.22%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.69%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-22 17:44
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 17:50
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 17:50
FanDuel2.25I 44.44%NM 42.18%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -2.91%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-22 17:45
Unibet (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-22 17:50
Bet Victor2.25I 44.44%NM 41.97%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -10.78%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.26%EV -1.82%E -0.585%K -0.861%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-22 17:55
Betway2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 17:49
Fanatics2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 15:40
TAB2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -4.84%E -2.15%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -8.75%E -3.02%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 17:49
Casumo2.23I 44.84%NM 42.85%EV -5.69%E -2.55%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.82%EV -2.91%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.33%EV -4.03%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 17:30
betPARX2.23I 44.84%NM 42.85%EV -5.69%E -2.55%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.82%EV -2.91%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.33%EV -4.03%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 17:30
Grosvenor2.23I 44.84%NM 42.63%EV -5.69%E -2.55%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -2.91%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.68%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-22 17:54
Bally Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 42.48%EV -5.69%E -2.55%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%EV -4.22%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-22 17:55
Betclic (FR)2.22I 45.05%NM 42.57%EV -6.11%E -2.75%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.19%EV -4.66%E -1.54%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-22 17:49
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -4.03%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 17:50
Unibet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -4.22%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 17:30
TABtouch2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -4.22%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 17:30
LeoVegas (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -4.22%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 17:30
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 15:10
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 17:55
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-22 17:50
Sky Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-22 17:45
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -4.03%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-22 17:54
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -2.91%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.75%E -3.02%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 17:45
Bet Right2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -9.47%E -2.74%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -4.03%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-22 17:34
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 17:50
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 17:50
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 17:50
NetBet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.27%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -6.84%E -1.93%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 17:50
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -9.38%E -3.26%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-22 17:44
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -8.75%E -3.02%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-22 17:50
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -8.15%E -2.33%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -8.75%E -3.02%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-22 17:45
Virgin Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -10.78%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-22 17:54
LiveScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -6.96%E -3.16%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -10.78%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-22 17:54
BetRivers2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -7.80%E -3.58%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 17:30
PMU (FR)2.18I 45.87%NM 42.65%EV -7.80%E -3.58%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -5.53%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.52%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 17:54
Tipico (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -9.07%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -0.283%E -0.074%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 17:55
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -9.07%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -6.84%E -1.93%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -5.60%E -1.87%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-22 17:50
William Hill2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -9.07%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -10.78%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 17:54
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -9.07%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -10.78%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -2.45%E -0.792%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 17:54
LeoVegas2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -9.07%E -4.22%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -6.84%E -1.93%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -7.17%E -2.43%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 17:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.97%EV -11.19%E -5.33%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.75%EV -18.65%E -6.02%K -8.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.28%EV -13.47%E -4.90%K -7.70%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-22 17:42
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.38I 42.02%NM 41.97%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.29%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.75%0.1%2026-04-22 17:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63%0.5%2026-04-22 17:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63%0.5%2026-04-22 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.36I 42.37%NM 42.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.63%0.5%2026-04-22 17:54
Smarkets2.34I 42.74%NM 41.88%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.67%2.0%2026-04-22 17:54
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 42.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.21%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.08%3.1%2026-04-22 17:55