The School of Odds

Real Racing Club de Santander v Villarreal

2026-08-16 15:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

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Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Real Racing Club de Santander (Local)

Prediction 28.56%3.50fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -0.852%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.40%28.62%28.46%29.82%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.103.273.303.4032%31%30%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Villarreal (Visit)

Prediction 44.58%2.24fair odd
EV -2.81%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -2.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.99%44.56%44.61%45.31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.942.092.102.1852%48%48%46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.86%3.72fair odd
EV -0.621%
Edge -0.168%
Kelly -0.230%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.53%26.82%26.93%27.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.203.443.403.7031%29%29%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 28.50%EV -2.90%E -0.852%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.44%EV -2.81%E -1.29%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.06%EV -3.84%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-24 05:00
SportsBet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -2.90%E -0.852%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 07:35
FanDuel3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -2.90%E -0.852%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 07:35
Betr (AU)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -2.90%E -0.852%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 07:34
betfred_uk3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -2.90%E -0.852%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 07:33
Coral3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -2.90%E -0.852%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-14 12:59
Betsson3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -4.32%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.84%EV -5.49%E -2.59%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -4.65%E -1.31%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-24 05:00
NordicBet3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -4.32%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.84%EV -5.49%E -2.59%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -4.65%E -1.31%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-24 05:05
Codere (IT)3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -4.32%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.15%EV -4.15%E -1.93%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.51%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-24 08:04
Ladbrokes (AU)3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -4.32%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-14 12:59
Neds3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -4.32%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-14 12:59
LowVig.ag3.33I 30.03%NM 29.00%EV -4.90%E -1.47%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.91%EV -4.15%E -1.93%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -0.621%E -0.168%K -0.230%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-22 15:39
BetOnline.ag3.33I 30.03%NM 29.00%EV -4.90%E -1.47%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.91%EV -4.15%E -1.93%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -0.621%E -0.168%K -0.230%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-22 20:49
BetMGM3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-14 12:59
LeoVegas (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 22:20
ATG (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 22:19
Svenska Spel3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 22:19
Bally Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 22:40
betPARX3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 22:45
Casumo3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 23:05
Unibet (SE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 23:09
Grosvenor3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet (NL)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 23:10
TABtouch3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 23:10
BetRivers3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-03 02:20
Ladbrokes (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-14 12:59
PMU (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-16 17:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -8.61%E -4.20%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-09 08:39
Sky Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -8.61%E -4.20%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-06 07:33
Paddy Power3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -8.61%E -4.20%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-06 07:34
Pinnacle3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.91%EV -5.49%E -2.59%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.80%EV -0.890%E -0.241%K -0.331%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 02:45
Bovada3.25I 30.77%NM 29.21%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.78%EV -5.49%E -2.59%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -1.96%E -0.538%K -0.741%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-25 02:37
BetUS3.25I 30.77%NM 29.21%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.78%EV -5.49%E -2.59%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -1.96%E -0.538%K -0.741%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-25 02:40
Coolbet3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -4.15%E -1.93%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -5.99%E -1.71%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-19 13:09
Unibet (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -7.27%E -3.50%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-24 04:59
Bet Victor3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.61%E -4.20%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-24 04:59
betano_uk3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.61%E -4.20%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-24 04:59
DraftKings3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -8.61%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.49%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -4.65%E -1.31%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-24 05:00
William Hill3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -8.61%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -4.15%E -1.93%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-19 16:05
LeoVegas3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -8.61%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.21%EV -7.27%E -3.50%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-24 05:00
Winamax (DE)3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.61%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -8.61%E -4.20%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -7.34%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-24 05:00
PlayUp3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -8.61%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.85%EV -7.27%E -3.50%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-24 05:00
Unibet (FR)3.20I 31.25%NM 27.40%EV -8.61%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.20%EV -13.51%E -6.97%K -14.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.40%EV -14.05%E -4.39%K -6.39%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-24 08:05
Betclic (FR)3.17I 31.55%NM 28.13%EV -9.47%E -2.99%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.59%EV -10.84%E -5.42%K -10.84%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.27%EV -12.17%E -3.72%K -5.36%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-24 08:03
LiveScore Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -10.04%E -3.19%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.83%EV -8.61%E -4.20%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-02 22:20
Virgin Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -10.04%E -3.19%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.83%EV -8.61%E -4.20%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -12.71%E -3.91%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-02 22:19
Mr Green (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -11.46%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -4.15%E -1.93%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-19 16:05
Everygame3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -11.46%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -8.61%E -4.20%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -3.31%E -0.919%K -1.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-24 04:58
Betway3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -11.46%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -8.61%E -4.20%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -3.31%E -0.919%K -1.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-24 06:34
Winamax (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -11.46%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -8.61%E -4.20%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -10.02%E -2.99%K -4.26%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-24 08:05
BoyleSports3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -11.46%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -10.84%E -5.42%K -10.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -8.68%E -2.55%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-06 10:20
NetBet (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -11.46%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.05%EV -13.07%E -6.70%K -13.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-25 07:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.11%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%3.1%2026-07-25 09:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.11%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%3.1%2026-07-25 09:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.11%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%3.1%2026-07-24 07:30
Smarkets3.45I 28.99%NM 28.11%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%3.1%2026-07-25 13:50