The School of Odds

Real Racing Club de Santander v Villarreal

2026-08-16 19:00 — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis)

Option 1: Real Racing Club de Santander (Local)

Odds
3.1032.26%Min
3.3829.57%Mean
3.3030.30%Median
3.7426.74%Max
Consensus probabilities
25.77%3.881Min
28.52%3.506Max
26.64%3.754Mean
26.50%3.774Median
26.44%3.782IQM
26.57%3.763Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.74 under the IQM model: 26.44%

EV -1.11%Edge -0.296%Kelly -0.405%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Villarreal (Visit)

Odds
1.8155.25%Min
2.0449.14%Mean
2.0548.78%Median
2.1047.62%Max
Consensus probabilities
43.83%2.282Min
47.09%2.124Max
46.19%2.165Mean
46.31%2.160Median
46.38%2.156IQM
46.24%2.162Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.10 under the IQM model: 46.38%

EV -2.61%Edge -1.24%Kelly -2.37%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
3.1032.26%Min
3.3829.56%Mean
3.4029.41%Median
3.6027.78%Max
Consensus probabilities
26.45%3.780Min
27.83%3.593Max
27.17%3.681Mean
27.20%3.677Median
27.18%3.679IQM
27.18%3.679Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.60 under the IQM model: 27.18%

EV -2.15%Edge -0.597%Kelly -0.826%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

BookmakerReal Racing Club de Santander (Local) ▼Villarreal (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet3.74I 26.74% NM 26.06%EV -1.11% E -0.296% K -0.405% G +0.000%2.08I 48.08% NM 46.86%EV -3.53% E -1.70% K -3.27% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 27.08%EV -2.15% E -0.597% K -0.826% G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-04 22:18
SportsBet3.60I 27.78% NM 26.42%EV -4.81% E -1.34% K -1.85% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.40%EV -4.93% E -2.40% K -4.69% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 27.18%EV -4.87% E -1.39% K -1.95% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 03:00
betfred_uk3.60I 27.78% NM 26.42%EV -4.81% E -1.34% K -1.85% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.40%EV -4.93% E -2.40% K -4.69% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 27.18%EV -4.87% E -1.39% K -1.95% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 02:59
Codere (IT)3.60I 27.78% NM 26.38%EV -4.81% E -1.34% K -1.85% G +0.000%2.06I 48.54% NM 46.10%EV -4.46% E -2.17% K -4.21% G +0.000%3.45I 28.99% NM 27.52%EV -6.23% E -1.80% K -2.54% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 02:39
FanDuel3.50I 28.57% NM 26.97%EV -7.45% E -2.13% K -2.98% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.05%EV -4.93% E -2.40% K -4.69% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.97%EV -4.87% E -1.39% K -1.95% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-04 03:00
Betr (AU)3.50I 28.57% NM 26.97%EV -7.45% E -2.13% K -2.98% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.05%EV -4.93% E -2.40% K -4.69% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.97%EV -4.87% E -1.39% K -1.95% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-04 03:00
Sky Bet3.50I 28.57% NM 26.76%EV -7.45% E -2.13% K -2.98% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 45.69%EV -4.93% E -2.40% K -4.69% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.55%EV -7.58% E -2.23% K -3.16% G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-04 03:00
Paddy Power3.50I 28.57% NM 26.46%EV -7.45% E -2.13% K -2.98% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 46.30%EV -7.24% E -3.62% K -7.24% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.24%EV -7.58% E -2.23% K -3.16% G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-04 02:59
Unibet (UK)3.50I 28.57% NM 26.24%EV -7.45% E -2.13% K -2.98% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 45.92%EV -7.24% E -3.62% K -7.24% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 27.83%EV -10.30% E -3.12% K -4.48% G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-04 02:40
Bet Victor3.50I 28.57% NM 26.15%EV -7.45% E -2.13% K -2.98% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 46.93%EV -9.56% E -4.90% K -10.07% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 26.92%EV -7.58% E -2.23% K -3.16% G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-04 04:50
LeoVegas3.45I 28.99% NM 26.63%EV -8.78% E -2.54% K -3.58% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 45.94%EV -7.24% E -3.62% K -7.24% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 27.43%EV -8.94% E -2.67% K -3.81% G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-04 18:55
Winamax (DE)3.40I 29.41% NM 27.01%EV -10.10% E -2.97% K -4.21% G +0.000%1.98I 50.51% NM 46.38%EV -8.17% E -4.13% K -8.34% G +0.000%3.45I 28.99% NM 26.62%EV -6.23% E -1.80% K -2.54% G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-04 02:40
BoyleSports3.40I 29.41% NM 26.45%EV -10.10% E -2.97% K -4.21% G +0.000%1.91I 52.36% NM 47.09%EV -11.42% E -5.98% K -12.55% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 26.45%EV -7.58% E -2.23% K -3.16% G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-05 11:35
Unibet (FR)3.40I 29.41% NM 25.77%EV -10.10% E -2.97% K -4.21% G +0.000%1.87I 53.48% NM 46.85%EV -13.27% E -7.10% K -15.26% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 27.38%EV -13.02% E -4.07% K -5.92% G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-04 02:39
Betclic (FR)3.33I 30.03% NM 26.36%EV -11.95% E -3.59% K -5.13% G +0.000%1.90I 52.63% NM 46.20%EV -11.88% E -6.25% K -13.20% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 27.43%EV -13.02% E -4.07% K -5.92% G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-04 02:40
LeoVegas (SE)3.30I 30.30% NM 28.23%EV -12.74% E -3.86% K -5.54% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 44.37%EV -2.61% E -1.24% K -2.37% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.40%EV -7.58% E -2.23% K -3.16% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 22:20
ATG (SE)3.30I 30.30% NM 28.23%EV -12.74% E -3.86% K -5.54% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 44.37%EV -2.61% E -1.24% K -2.37% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.40%EV -7.58% E -2.23% K -3.16% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 22:19
Svenska Spel3.30I 30.30% NM 28.23%EV -12.74% E -3.86% K -5.54% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 44.37%EV -2.61% E -1.24% K -2.37% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.40%EV -7.58% E -2.23% K -3.16% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 22:19
Bally Bet3.30I 30.30% NM 28.23%EV -12.74% E -3.86% K -5.54% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 44.37%EV -2.61% E -1.24% K -2.37% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.40%EV -7.58% E -2.23% K -3.16% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 22:40
betPARX3.30I 30.30% NM 28.23%EV -12.74% E -3.86% K -5.54% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 44.37%EV -2.61% E -1.24% K -2.37% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.40%EV -7.58% E -2.23% K -3.16% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 22:45
Casumo3.30I 30.30% NM 28.23%EV -12.74% E -3.86% K -5.54% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 44.37%EV -2.61% E -1.24% K -2.37% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.40%EV -7.58% E -2.23% K -3.16% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 23:05
Unibet (SE)3.30I 30.30% NM 28.23%EV -12.74% E -3.86% K -5.54% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 44.37%EV -2.61% E -1.24% K -2.37% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.40%EV -7.58% E -2.23% K -3.16% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 23:09
Grosvenor3.30I 30.30% NM 28.23%EV -12.74% E -3.86% K -5.54% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 44.37%EV -2.61% E -1.24% K -2.37% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.40%EV -7.58% E -2.23% K -3.16% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet (NL)3.30I 30.30% NM 28.23%EV -12.74% E -3.86% K -5.54% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 44.37%EV -2.61% E -1.24% K -2.37% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.40%EV -7.58% E -2.23% K -3.16% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 23:10
Unibet3.30I 30.30% NM 28.23%EV -12.74% E -3.86% K -5.54% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 44.37%EV -2.61% E -1.24% K -2.37% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.40%EV -7.58% E -2.23% K -3.16% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 23:10
TABtouch3.30I 30.30% NM 28.23%EV -12.74% E -3.86% K -5.54% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 44.37%EV -2.61% E -1.24% K -2.37% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.40%EV -7.58% E -2.23% K -3.16% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-02 23:10
BetRivers3.30I 30.30% NM 28.23%EV -12.74% E -3.86% K -5.54% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 44.37%EV -2.61% E -1.24% K -2.37% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 27.40%EV -7.58% E -2.23% K -3.16% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-03 02:20
NetBet (FR)3.25I 30.77% NM 26.13%EV -14.07% E -4.33% K -6.25% G +0.000%1.81I 55.25% NM 46.91%EV -16.06% E -8.87% K -19.82% G +0.000%3.15I 31.75% NM 26.96%EV -14.38% E -4.57% K -6.69% G +0.000%17.8%2026-07-04 22:20
LiveScore Bet3.15I 31.75% NM 28.52%EV -16.71% E -5.30% K -7.77% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 43.83%EV -4.93% E -2.40% K -4.69% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 27.65%EV -11.66% E -3.59% K -5.18% G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-02 22:20
Virgin Bet3.15I 31.75% NM 28.52%EV -16.71% E -5.30% K -7.77% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 43.83%EV -4.93% E -2.40% K -4.69% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 27.65%EV -11.66% E -3.59% K -5.18% G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-02 22:19
Winamax (FR)3.10I 32.26% NM 27.14%EV -18.03% E -5.82% K -8.59% G +0.000%1.84I 54.35% NM 45.72%EV -14.67% E -7.97% K -17.46% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 27.14%EV -15.74% E -5.08% K -7.49% G +0.000%18.9%2026-07-04 02:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerReal Racing Club de Santander (Local)Villarreal (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.05I 32.79%2.06I 48.54%3.45I 28.99%10.3%2026-07-05 10:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.05I 32.79%2.06I 48.54%3.45I 28.99%10.3%2026-07-05 10:10
Smarkets3.35I 29.85%1.85I 54.05%2.98I 33.56%17.5%2026-07-05 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.05I 32.79%2.06I 48.54%2.56I 39.06%20.4%2026-07-05 10:10