Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.99
assuming max odds 2.00
assuming max odds 4.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Racing Club de Santander (Local): 25.84%; Villarreal (Visit): 49.05%; Draw: 25.11%. For Real Racing Club de Santander (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.87. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.99, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.10%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.99I 25.06%NM 24.24%EV +3.10%E +0.778%K +1.04%G +0.032% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.64%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.12%EV -3.34%E -0.866%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-16 14:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.99I 25.06%NM 24.24%EV +3.10%E +0.778%K +1.04%G +0.032% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.64%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.12%EV -3.34%E -0.866%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.48%EV +2.59%E +0.652%K +0.871%G +0.023% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.09%EV -4.84%E -2.49%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 25.44%EV -4.09%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-16 14:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.46%EV +2.59%E +0.652%K +0.871%G +0.023% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.05%EV -4.84%E -2.49%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.81I 26.25%NM 25.49%EV -4.34%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-16 14:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.95%EV +0.778%E +0.199%K +0.268%G +0.002% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.42%EV -5.33%E -2.76%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.63%EV -0.825%E -0.209%K -0.280%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-16 14:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.95%EV +0.778%E +0.199%K +0.268%G +0.002% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.42%EV -5.33%E -2.76%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.63%EV -0.825%E -0.209%K -0.280%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-16 14:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.95%EV +0.778%E +0.199%K +0.268%G +0.002% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.42%EV -5.33%E -2.76%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.63%EV -0.825%E -0.209%K -0.280%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-16 14:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.88%EV +0.778%E +0.199%K +0.268%G +0.002% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.55%EV -5.82%E -3.03%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.57%EV -0.825%E -0.209%K -0.280%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-16 14:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%EV -0.514%E -0.134%K -0.180%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.54%EV -1.90%E -0.948%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.24%EV -7.10%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-16 14:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.98%EV -0.514%E -0.134%K -0.180%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.36%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.66%EV -2.08%E -0.533%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-16 14:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.74%EV -0.514%E -0.134%K -0.180%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.86%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.40%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-16 14:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.82I 26.18%NM 25.39%EV -1.29%E -0.338%K -0.457%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.23%EV -3.37%E -1.71%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 25.39%EV -4.09%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-16 14:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.09%EV -1.81%E -0.475%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.14%EV -4.84%E -2.49%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.77%EV -7.10%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 14:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -1.81%E -0.475%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -7.10%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 14:44 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -1.81%E -0.475%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -7.78%E -4.14%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 14:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -1.81%E -0.475%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -7.78%E -4.14%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 14:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -1.81%E -0.475%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -7.78%E -4.14%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 14:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.49%EV -3.10%E -0.826%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.02%EV -4.35%E -2.23%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.49%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -3.10%E -0.826%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.11%EV -5.33%E -2.76%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -7.10%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 14:53 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -3.10%E -0.826%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.54%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 14:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.83%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.02%EV -4.35%E -2.23%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.15%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.11%EV -5.33%E -2.76%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 14:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.11%EV -5.33%E -2.76%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 14:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.66%EV -6.80%E -3.58%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -9.61%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 14:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -9.61%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 14:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -9.61%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 14:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.90%EV -8.27%E -4.42%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 14:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.90%EV -8.27%E -4.42%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 14:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.71%EV -11.22%E -6.20%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-16 14:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 50.71%EV -11.22%E -6.20%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-16 14:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.03%EV -5.68%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.97%EV -4.84%E -2.49%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 14:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -5.68%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.25%E -5.00%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -8.36%E -2.29%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-16 14:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -5.68%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.25%E -5.00%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -8.36%E -2.29%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-16 14:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -5.68%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.25%E -5.00%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -8.36%E -2.29%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-16 14:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -2.08%E -0.533%K -0.717%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 14:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.76%EV -5.33%E -2.76%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 14:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-16 14:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-16 14:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-16 14:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-16 14:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.89%EV -5.82%E -3.03%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-16 14:38 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 14:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.99%EV -6.80%E -3.58%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -7.10%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-16 14:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -8.27%E -4.42%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -12.12%E -3.46%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-16 14:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -10.23%E -5.59%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -9.61%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-16 14:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -8.27%E -2.33%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.44%EV -2.88%E -1.45%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -9.61%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-16 14:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -8.27%E -2.33%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.44%EV -2.88%E -1.45%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -9.61%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-16 14:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.38%EV -8.27%E -2.33%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.29%EV -6.80%E -3.58%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -3.34%E -0.866%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 14:39 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -4.35%E -2.23%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV +0.430%E +0.108%K +0.143%G +0.001% | 4.9% | 2026-08-16 14:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.95%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.89%EV -3.37%E -1.71%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.16%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 14:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -4.35%E -2.23%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-16 14:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 14:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%EV -5.82%E -3.03%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-16 14:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.90%EV -5.33%E -2.76%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -9.61%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 14:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.06%EV -7.78%E -4.14%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-16 14:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -16.02%E -4.93%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.75%EV -10.23%E -5.59%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-16 14:44 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.96% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.43% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.60% | 0.1% | 2026-08-16 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.28% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.52% | 0.5% | 2026-08-16 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.71% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.81% | 0.6% | 2026-08-16 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.71% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.81% | 0.6% | 2026-08-16 14:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.99% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.36% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.64% | 1.3% | 2026-08-16 14:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.02% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.47% | 2.0% | 2026-08-16 14:55 |