Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Real Racing Club de Santander v Villarreal

Início: 2026-08-16 15:00 UTC

Final: Real Racing Club de Santander 2–2 Villarreal

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

57 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Real Racing Club de Santander (Local)

Previsão 25.84%3.87odd justa
EV +3.10%
Vantagem +0.778%
Kelly +1.04%
Crescimento +0.032%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.99

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.24%25.82%25.97%27.45%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.253.693.703.9930.77%27.09%27.03%25.06%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Villarreal (Visitante)

Previsão 49.05%2.04odd justa
EV -1.90%
Vantagem -0.948%
Kelly -1.90%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
47.44%49.07%48.95%50.71%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.811.911.912.0055.25%52.35%52.36%50.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 25.11%3.98odd justa
EV +0.430%
Vantagem +0.108%
Kelly +0.143%
Crescimento +0.001%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.79%25.12%25.08%26.24%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.503.763.754.0028.57%26.59%26.67%25.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Real Racing Club de Santander (Local): 25.84%; Villarreal (Visitante): 49.05%; Empate: 25.11%. Para Real Racing Club de Santander (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.87. 8 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.99, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +3.10%.

Odds das casas de apostas (57 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
LowVig.ag🎯3.99I 25.06%NM 24.24%EV +3.10%E +0.778%K +1.04%G +0.032%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.64%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.12%EV -3.34%E -0.866%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-16 14:39
BetOnline.ag🎯3.99I 25.06%NM 24.24%EV +3.10%E +0.778%K +1.04%G +0.032%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.64%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.12%EV -3.34%E -0.866%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-16 14:40
1xBet🎯3.97I 25.19%NM 24.48%EV +2.59%E +0.652%K +0.871%G +0.023%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.09%EV -4.84%E -2.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.44%EV -4.09%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-16 14:49
Pinnacle🎯3.97I 25.19%NM 24.46%EV +2.59%E +0.652%K +0.871%G +0.023%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.05%EV -4.84%E -2.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.49%EV -4.34%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-16 14:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.95%EV +0.778%E +0.199%K +0.268%G +0.002%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.42%EV -5.33%E -2.76%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.63%EV -0.825%E -0.209%K -0.280%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-16 14:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.95%EV +0.778%E +0.199%K +0.268%G +0.002%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.42%EV -5.33%E -2.76%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.63%EV -0.825%E -0.209%K -0.280%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-16 14:54
Unibet (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.95%EV +0.778%E +0.199%K +0.268%G +0.002%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.42%EV -5.33%E -2.76%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.63%EV -0.825%E -0.209%K -0.280%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-16 14:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.88%EV +0.778%E +0.199%K +0.268%G +0.002%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.55%EV -5.82%E -3.03%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.57%EV -0.825%E -0.209%K -0.280%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-16 14:54
Coolbet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%EV -0.514%E -0.134%K -0.180%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.54%EV -1.90%E -0.948%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.24%EV -7.10%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-16 14:50
Grosvenor🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.98%EV -0.514%E -0.134%K -0.180%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.36%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.66%EV -2.08%E -0.533%K -0.717%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-16 14:54
BetUS🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.74%EV -0.514%E -0.134%K -0.180%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.86%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.40%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-16 14:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.82I 26.18%NM 25.39%EV -1.29%E -0.338%K -0.457%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.23%EV -3.37%E -1.71%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.39%EV -4.09%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-16 14:54
SportsBet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.09%EV -1.81%E -0.475%K -0.645%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.14%EV -4.84%E -2.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.77%EV -7.10%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-16 14:44
FanDuel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -1.81%E -0.475%K -0.645%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -7.10%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 14:44
Bally Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -1.81%E -0.475%K -0.645%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -7.78%E -4.14%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 14:50
betPARX🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -1.81%E -0.475%K -0.645%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -7.78%E -4.14%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 14:49
Casumo🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -1.81%E -0.475%K -0.645%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -7.78%E -4.14%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 14:49
LeoVegas🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.49%EV -3.10%E -0.826%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.02%EV -4.35%E -2.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.49%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-16 14:40
Bovada🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -3.10%E -0.826%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.11%EV -5.33%E -2.76%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -7.10%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-16 14:53
Sky Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -3.10%E -0.826%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.54%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 14:44
DraftKings🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.83%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.02%EV -4.35%E -2.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.15%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-16 14:40
Bet Victor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.11%EV -5.33%E -2.76%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-16 14:50
betano_uk🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.11%EV -5.33%E -2.76%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-16 14:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.66%EV -6.80%E -3.58%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 14:40
Paddy Power🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -9.61%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 14:50
William Hill🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -9.61%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 14:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -9.61%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 14:55
Unibet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.90%EV -8.27%E -4.42%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 14:54
PMU (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.90%EV -8.27%E -4.42%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 14:54
LiveScore Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.71%EV -11.22%E -6.20%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-16 14:55
Virgin Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -4.39%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.71%EV -11.22%E -6.20%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-16 14:55
Codere (IT)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.03%EV -5.68%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.97%EV -4.84%E -2.49%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 14:54
NetBet (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -5.68%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.25%E -5.00%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -8.36%E -2.29%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -5.68%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.25%E -5.00%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -8.36%E -2.29%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:54
TABtouch🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -5.68%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.25%E -5.00%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -8.36%E -2.29%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:54
Coral🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -2.08%E -0.533%K -0.717%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-16 14:39
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.76%EV -5.33%E -2.76%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 14:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-16 14:40
Neds🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-16 14:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-16 14:39
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-16 14:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.89%EV -5.82%E -3.03%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:38
Betway🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 14:44
Unibet (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.99%EV -6.80%E -3.58%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -7.10%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-16 14:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -8.27%E -4.42%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -12.12%E -3.46%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-16 14:49
Fliff🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -6.97%E -1.94%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -10.23%E -5.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -9.61%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 14:49
Betsson🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -8.27%E -2.33%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.44%EV -2.88%E -1.45%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -9.61%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:35
NordicBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -8.27%E -2.33%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.44%EV -2.88%E -1.45%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -9.61%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:34
Winamax (DE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.38%EV -8.27%E -2.33%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.29%EV -6.80%E -3.58%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -3.34%E -0.866%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 14:39
betfred_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -4.35%E -2.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV +0.430%E +0.108%K +0.143%G +0.001%4.9%2026-08-16 14:50
BetRivers🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.95%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.89%EV -3.37%E -1.71%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.16%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 14:24
Betr (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -4.35%E -2.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 14:55
theScore Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.31%E -3.30%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -4.59%E -1.21%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 14:50
Bet Right🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.53%EV -5.82%E -3.03%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 14:50
PlayUp🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.90%EV -5.33%E -2.76%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -9.61%E -2.67%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 14:55
Winamax (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.56%E -2.73%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.06%EV -7.78%E -4.14%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-16 14:39
BoyleSports🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -16.02%E -4.93%K -7.12%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.75%EV -10.23%E -5.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -5.85%E -1.56%K -2.13%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-16 14:44
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook4.00I 25.00%NM 24.96%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.43%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.60%0.1%2026-08-16 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.28%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.52%0.5%2026-08-16 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.71%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.81%0.6%2026-08-16 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.71%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.81%0.6%2026-08-16 14:55
Smarkets3.95I 25.32%NM 24.99%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.36%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.64%1.3%2026-08-16 14:55
Kalshi4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.02%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.47%2.0%2026-08-16 14:55