Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Madrid v Real Sociedad

Kickoff: 2026-08-26 19:00 UTC

Final: Real Madrid 4–1 Real Sociedad

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Madrid (Local)

Prediction 80.04%1.25fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -10.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.73%80.01%80.03%81.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.181.191.2287.72%84.41%84.03%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Sociedad (Visit)

Prediction 7.38%13.55fair odd
EV +10.68%
Edge +0.712%
Kelly +0.763%
Growth +0.082%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.32%7.42%7.33%9.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0012.8813.0015.0010.00%7.77%7.69%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.58%7.95fair odd
EV +9.20%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.110%

assuming max odds 8.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.15%12.57%12.65%14.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.447.508.6815.38%13.43%13.33%11.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Madrid (Local): 80.04%; Real Sociedad (Visit): 7.38%; Draw: 12.58%. For Real Sociedad (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.55. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.68%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.99%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%14.10I 7.09%NM 6.86%EV +4.04%E +0.287%K +0.309%G +0.012%8.68I 11.52%NM 11.15%EV +9.20%E +1.06%K +1.20%G +0.110%3.4%2026-08-26 18:54
Pinnacle🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 81.73%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.48%EV +10.68%E +0.712%K +0.763%G +0.082%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.79%EV +3.79%E +0.459%K +0.523%G +0.020%2.8%2026-08-26 18:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 81.35%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.91%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.73%EV +3.79%E +0.459%K +0.523%G +0.020%3.3%2026-08-26 18:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 81.35%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.91%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.73%EV +3.79%E +0.459%K +0.523%G +0.020%3.3%2026-08-26 18:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.81%EV -7.95%E -6.92%K -53.02%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.72%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.47%EV +3.16%E +0.386%K +0.439%G +0.014%6.3%2026-08-26 18:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 81.43%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.46%EV +10.68%E +0.712%K +0.763%G +0.082%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.11%EV +0.646%E +0.081%K +0.092%G +0.001%3.2%2026-08-26 18:09
Sky Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.89%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.37%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV +0.646%E +0.081%K +0.092%G +0.001%5.7%2026-08-26 18:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.02%EV -7.15%E -6.17%K -44.71%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.75%EV +0.646%E +0.081%K +0.092%G +0.001%6.4%2026-08-26 18:35
BetUS🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.83%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%13.30I 7.52%NM 7.17%EV -1.86%E -0.140%K -0.151%G +0.000%7.95I 12.58%NM 12.00%EV +0.017%E +0.002%K +0.002%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-26 18:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.65%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.37%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.10%EV -1.87%E -0.240%K -0.275%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-26 18:55
Bovada🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.45%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.30%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.25%EV -2.50%E -0.323%K -0.370%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-26 18:13
SportsBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.00%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.37%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.77%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%EV -2.50%E -0.323%K -0.370%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-26 18:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.53%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.37%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%EV -18.83%E -1.71%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.01%EV -2.50%E -0.323%K -0.370%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-26 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 79.48%EV -2.35%E -1.93%K -10.69%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.76%EV -7.76%E -0.621%K -0.675%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.76%EV -4.39%E -0.577%K -0.665%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-26 18:49
Codere (IT)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.50%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.95%EV -11.45%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.55%EV -4.39%E -0.577%K -0.665%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-26 18:50
Coolbet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 79.59%EV -2.35%E -1.93%K -10.69%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.47%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.95%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-26 18:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 80.14%EV -3.15%E -2.60%K -15.01%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.93%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.93%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-26 18:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.28%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.88%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.84%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-26 18:09
Grosvenor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.28%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.88%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.84%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-26 17:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.28%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.88%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.84%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-26 18:09
BetMGM🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.95%EV -3.15%E -2.60%K -15.01%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.31%EV -15.14%E -1.32%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.74%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-26 18:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.99%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-26 18:52
DraftKings🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.99%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-26 18:09
BetRivers🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.99%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-26 18:09
Casumo🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.99%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-26 18:09
betPARX🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.99%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-26 18:09
Bally Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.99%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-26 18:09
betano_uk🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.37%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV +10.68%E +0.712%K +0.763%G +0.082%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-26 18:53
Bet Victor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.37%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV +10.68%E +0.712%K +0.763%G +0.082%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-26 18:54
LeoVegas🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.50%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.88%EV -11.45%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-26 18:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.80%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -18.83%E -1.71%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-26 18:29
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.80%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -18.83%E -1.71%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-26 18:44
betfred_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-26 18:14
Everygame🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-26 18:09
FanDuel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.37%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-26 18:09
Betway🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.64%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -11.45%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-26 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.94%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -18.83%E -1.71%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-26 18:54
Paddy Power🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.07%EV -8.75%E -7.68%K -62.53%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.60%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-26 18:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.05%EV -7.95%E -6.92%K -53.02%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.67%EV -11.45%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-26 18:47
theScore Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.99%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.99%EV -0.384%E -0.028%K -0.031%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.02%EV -8.79%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-26 18:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.77%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.24%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -8.79%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-26 18:14
Neds🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -22.52%E -2.14%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.93%EV -8.79%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-26 18:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -22.52%E -2.14%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.93%EV -8.79%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-26 18:29
Fliff🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.66%EV -7.95%E -6.92%K -53.02%G +0.000%11.90I 8.40%NM 7.70%EV -12.19%E -1.02%K -1.12%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.64%EV -8.79%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-26 18:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -11.45%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -11.94%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-26 18:50
William Hill🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -11.45%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -11.94%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-26 18:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.18%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.47%EV -7.76%E -0.621%K -0.675%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -11.94%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-26 18:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.18%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.47%EV -7.76%E -0.621%K -0.675%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -11.94%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-26 17:45
Unibet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.18%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.47%EV -7.76%E -0.621%K -0.675%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -11.94%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-26 17:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.18%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.47%EV -7.76%E -0.621%K -0.675%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -11.94%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-26 18:09
Bet Right🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -11.45%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -11.94%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-26 18:14
BoyleSports🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.73%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -26.21%E -2.62%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -11.94%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-26 18:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.69%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.37%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.67%EV -11.45%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.64%EV -15.08%E -2.23%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-26 18:10
TABtouch🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.69%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.37%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.67%EV -11.45%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.64%EV -15.08%E -2.23%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-26 18:09
Betsson🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.22%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.50%EV +7.00%E +0.482%K +0.518%G +0.036%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.28%EV -16.97%E -2.57%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-26 18:44
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.22%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.50%EV +7.00%E +0.482%K +0.518%G +0.036%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.28%EV -16.97%E -2.57%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-26 18:44
TAB🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -18.23%E -2.80%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-26 18:53
PlayUp🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.46%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -18.23%E -2.80%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-26 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.75%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.65%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.60%0.3%2026-08-26 18:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.75%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.65%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.60%0.3%2026-08-26 18:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.75%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.65%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.60%0.3%2026-08-26 18:55
Matchbook1.22I 81.97%NM 81.53%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.63%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.84%0.5%2026-08-26 18:55
Smarkets1.20I 83.33%NM 81.99%14.99I 6.67%NM 6.56%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.44%1.6%2026-08-26 18:50
Kalshi1.20I 83.33%NM 81.43%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.84%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.73%2.3%2026-08-26 18:05