L’École des cotes

Real Madrid v Real Sociedad

2026-08-26 19:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Résultat du match

30 opérateurs (13 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Real Madrid (Local)

Prévision 66.17%1.51cote équitable
EV -2.73%
Avantage -1.86%
Kelly -5.80%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.47

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
63.62%66.16%65.97%68.29%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.331.401.401.4775.19%71.23%71.43%68.03%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Real Sociedad (Visiteur)

Prévision 14.39%6.95cote équitable
EV +7.93%
Avantage +1.06%
Kelly +1.22%
Croissance +0.097%

avec la cote maximale 7.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
13.07%14.47%14.37%15.96%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
5.506.516.507.5018.18%15.35%15.38%13.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 19.44%5.14cote équitable
EV +1.08%
Avantage +0.207%
Kelly +0.257%
Croissance +0.003%

avec la cote maximale 5.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.12%19.38%19.66%20.42%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.304.844.895.2023.26%20.65%20.43%19.23%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (30 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet1.47I 68.03%NM 67.06%EV -2.73%E -1.86%K -5.80%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 13.14%EV +7.93%E +1.06%K +1.22%G +0.097%4.98I 20.08%NM 19.80%EV -3.20%E -0.642%K -0.804%G +0.000%1.4%2026-07-25 22:55
Marathon Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 67.18%EV -4.71%E -3.27%K -10.71%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.07%EV +6.49%E +0.877%K +1.01%G +0.066%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.74%EV -4.75%E -0.970%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-25 22:50
LowVig.ag1.43I 69.93%NM 67.68%EV -5.37%E -3.76%K -12.50%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.35%EV +4.33%E +0.597%K +0.693%G +0.030%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.98%EV -0.866%E -0.170%K -0.211%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-22 15:39
BetOnline.ag1.43I 69.93%NM 67.68%EV -5.37%E -3.76%K -12.50%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.35%EV +4.33%E +0.597%K +0.693%G +0.030%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.98%EV -0.866%E -0.170%K -0.211%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-22 20:49
betfred_uk1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -7.36%E -5.26%K -18.40%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV +0.731%E +0.104%K +0.122%G +0.001%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.81%E -0.562%K -0.702%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-14 11:29
SportsBet1.39I 71.94%NM 67.98%EV -8.02%E -5.77%K -20.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.50%EV +0.731%E +0.104%K +0.122%G +0.001%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -0.866%E -0.170%K -0.211%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-24 23:00
FanDuel1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -9.34%E -6.82%K -25.26%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +0.731%E +0.104%K +0.122%G +0.001%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -0.866%E -0.170%K -0.211%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-14 11:29
BetUS1.41I 70.92%NM 67.07%EV -6.70%E -4.75%K -16.34%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -2.87%E -0.425%K -0.498%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -2.81%E -0.562%K -0.702%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-14 21:04
Betr (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.23%EV -7.36%E -5.26%K -18.40%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -2.87%E -0.425%K -0.498%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -2.81%E -0.562%K -0.702%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-24 22:59
Pinnacle1.40I 71.43%NM 66.88%EV -7.36%E -5.26%K -18.40%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.97%EV -3.59%E -0.535%K -0.629%G +0.000%4.89I 20.45%NM 19.15%EV -4.95%E -1.01%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 15:29
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -4.71%E -3.27%K -10.71%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -6.46%E -0.994%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -6.70%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-16 08:15
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -4.71%E -3.27%K -10.71%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -6.46%E -0.994%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -6.70%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-16 08:15
BetMGM1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -4.71%E -3.27%K -10.71%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -6.46%E -0.994%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -6.70%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-16 08:15
Tipico (DE)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.36%EV -7.36%E -5.26%K -18.40%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -6.46%E -0.994%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.13%EV +1.08%E +0.207%K +0.257%G +0.003%6.0%2026-07-24 15:00
DraftKings1.41I 70.92%NM 66.46%EV -6.70%E -4.75%K -16.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -6.46%E -0.994%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -4.75%E -0.970%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-20 15:00
Sky Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -7.36%E -5.26%K -18.40%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -6.46%E -0.994%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -2.81%E -0.562%K -0.702%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 23:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -10.01%E -7.36%K -27.80%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -6.46%E -0.994%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -2.81%E -0.562%K -0.702%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-24 23:00
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -10.01%E -7.36%K -27.80%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -6.46%E -0.994%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -7.67%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-24 23:00
Everygame1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -10.01%E -7.36%K -27.80%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -6.46%E -0.994%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -7.67%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-19 08:30
BoyleSports1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -10.01%E -7.36%K -27.80%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -6.46%E -0.994%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -12.53%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-19 01:05
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 65.44%EV -4.71%E -3.27%K -10.71%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.72%EV -7.90%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -7.67%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-16 08:15
Ladbrokes (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.44%EV -4.71%E -3.27%K -10.71%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.72%EV -7.90%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -7.67%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-16 08:15
Codere (IT)1.46I 68.49%NM 64.95%EV -3.39%E -2.32%K -7.37%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.29%EV -10.78%E -1.74%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.76%EV -6.70%E -1.40%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-24 14:35
NetBet (FR)1.33I 75.19%NM 65.78%EV -11.99%E -9.02%K -36.34%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.34%EV -12.22%E -2.00%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.88%EV -14.47%E -3.29%K -4.26%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-25 09:05
Winamax (DE)1.39I 71.94%NM 66.48%EV -8.02%E -5.77%K -20.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.40%EV -13.66%E -2.28%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.12%EV -0.866%E -0.170%K -0.211%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-25 00:50
LeoVegas1.42I 70.42%NM 64.99%EV -6.04%E -4.25%K -14.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -13.66%E -2.28%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV -8.64%E -1.84%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-24 23:05
Winamax (FR)1.37I 72.99%NM 65.97%EV -9.34%E -6.82%K -25.26%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.58%EV -16.54%E -2.85%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.45%EV -4.75%E -0.970%K -1.22%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-25 00:50
Unibet (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 64.00%EV -6.04%E -4.25%K -14.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.81%EV -17.26%E -3.00%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -12.53%E -2.78%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-24 14:35
Unibet (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 64.61%EV -10.01%E -7.36%K -27.80%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.42%EV -17.98%E -3.15%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.97%EV -14.47%E -3.29%K -4.26%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-24 14:35
Betclic (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 63.62%EV -8.68%E -6.29%K -22.85%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -20.85%E -3.79%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.42%EV -16.42%E -3.82%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-24 14:34
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.43I 69.93%NM 67.36%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.38%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.26%3.8%2026-07-25 23:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 67.36%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.38%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.26%3.8%2026-07-26 02:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 67.36%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.38%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.26%3.8%2026-07-25 23:30
Smarkets1.37I 72.99%NM 62.59%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.49%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.92%16.6%2026-07-24 14:35