默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Real Madrid v Real Sociedad

开赛时间: 2026-08-26 19:00 UTC

最终结果: Real Madrid 4–1 Real Sociedad

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型,根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始,因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

58 家博彩公司 (19 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率:四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Real Madrid (主队)

预测 80.04%1.25公平赔率
EV -2.35%
优势 -1.93%
Kelly -10.69%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.22

博彩公司预测分布
77.73%80.01%80.03%81.99%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.141.181.191.2287.72%84.41%84.03%81.97%最小值均值中位数最大值

Real Sociedad (客队)

预测 7.38%13.55公平赔率
EV +10.68%
优势 +0.712%
Kelly +0.763%
增长率 +0.082%

假设最高赔率为 15.00

博彩公司预测分布
6.32%7.42%7.33%9.17%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
10.0012.8813.0015.0010.00%7.77%7.69%6.67%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 12.58%7.95公平赔率
EV +9.20%
优势 +1.06%
Kelly +1.20%
增长率 +0.110%

假设最高赔率为 8.68

博彩公司预测分布
11.15%12.57%12.65%14.46%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
6.507.447.508.6815.38%13.43%13.33%11.52%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率,四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为:Real Madrid (主队):80.04%;Real Sociedad (客队):7.38%;平局:12.58%。 对于“Real Sociedad (客队)”,该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为13.55。 当时有17家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率;最佳赔率为15.00,对应+10.68%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (58 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联,也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队平局 ▼利润率更新时间
1xBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.99%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%14.10I 7.09%NM 6.86%EV +4.04%E +0.287%K +0.309%G +0.012%8.68I 11.52%NM 11.15%EV +9.20%E +1.06%K +1.20%G +0.110%3.4%2026-08-26 18:54
Pinnacle🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 81.73%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.48%EV +10.68%E +0.712%K +0.763%G +0.082%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.79%EV +3.79%E +0.459%K +0.523%G +0.020%2.8%2026-08-26 18:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 81.35%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.91%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.73%EV +3.79%E +0.459%K +0.523%G +0.020%3.3%2026-08-26 18:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 81.35%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.91%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.73%EV +3.79%E +0.459%K +0.523%G +0.020%3.3%2026-08-26 18:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.81%EV -7.95%E -6.92%K -53.02%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.72%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.47%EV +3.16%E +0.386%K +0.439%G +0.014%6.3%2026-08-26 18:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 81.43%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.46%EV +10.68%E +0.712%K +0.763%G +0.082%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.11%EV +0.646%E +0.081%K +0.092%G +0.001%3.2%2026-08-26 18:09
Sky Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.89%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.37%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV +0.646%E +0.081%K +0.092%G +0.001%5.7%2026-08-26 18:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.02%EV -7.15%E -6.17%K -44.71%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.75%EV +0.646%E +0.081%K +0.092%G +0.001%6.4%2026-08-26 18:35
BetUS🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.83%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%13.30I 7.52%NM 7.17%EV -1.86%E -0.140%K -0.151%G +0.000%7.95I 12.58%NM 12.00%EV +0.017%E +0.002%K +0.002%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-26 18:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.65%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.37%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.10%EV -1.87%E -0.240%K -0.275%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-26 18:55
Bovada🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.45%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.30%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.25%EV -2.50%E -0.323%K -0.370%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-26 18:13
SportsBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.00%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.37%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.77%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%EV -2.50%E -0.323%K -0.370%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-26 18:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.53%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.37%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%EV -18.83%E -1.71%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.01%EV -2.50%E -0.323%K -0.370%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-26 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 79.48%EV -2.35%E -1.93%K -10.69%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.76%EV -7.76%E -0.621%K -0.675%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.76%EV -4.39%E -0.577%K -0.665%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-26 18:49
Codere (IT)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.50%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.95%EV -11.45%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.55%EV -4.39%E -0.577%K -0.665%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-26 18:50
Coolbet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 79.59%EV -2.35%E -1.93%K -10.69%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.47%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.95%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-26 18:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 80.14%EV -3.15%E -2.60%K -15.01%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.93%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.93%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-26 18:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.28%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.88%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.84%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-26 18:09
Grosvenor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.28%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.88%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.84%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-26 17:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.28%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.88%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.84%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-26 18:09
BetMGM🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.95%EV -3.15%E -2.60%K -15.01%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.31%EV -15.14%E -1.32%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.74%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-26 18:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.99%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-26 18:52
DraftKings🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.99%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-26 18:09
BetRivers🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.99%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-26 18:09
Casumo🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.99%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-26 18:09
betPARX🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.99%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-26 18:09
Bally Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.99%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-26 18:09
betano_uk🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.37%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV +10.68%E +0.712%K +0.763%G +0.082%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-26 18:53
Bet Victor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.37%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV +10.68%E +0.712%K +0.763%G +0.082%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-26 18:54
LeoVegas🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.50%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.88%EV -11.45%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-26 18:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.80%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -18.83%E -1.71%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-26 18:29
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.80%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -18.83%E -1.71%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-26 18:44
betfred_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-26 18:14
Everygame🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-26 18:09
FanDuel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.37%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-26 18:09
Betway🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.64%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -11.45%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-26 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.94%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -18.83%E -1.71%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-26 18:54
Paddy Power🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.07%EV -8.75%E -7.68%K -62.53%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.60%EV +3.31%E +0.236%K +0.254%G +0.008%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-26 18:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.05%EV -7.95%E -6.92%K -53.02%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.67%EV -11.45%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -5.64%E -0.753%K -0.868%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-26 18:47
theScore Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.99%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.99%EV -0.384%E -0.028%K -0.031%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.02%EV -8.79%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-26 18:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.77%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.24%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -8.79%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-26 18:14
Neds🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -22.52%E -2.14%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.93%EV -8.79%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-26 18:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.14%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -22.52%E -2.14%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.93%EV -8.79%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-26 18:29
Fliff🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.66%EV -7.95%E -6.92%K -53.02%G +0.000%11.90I 8.40%NM 7.70%EV -12.19%E -1.02%K -1.12%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.64%EV -8.79%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-26 18:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -11.45%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -11.94%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-26 18:50
William Hill🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -11.45%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -11.94%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-26 18:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.18%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.47%EV -7.76%E -0.621%K -0.675%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -11.94%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-26 18:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.18%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.47%EV -7.76%E -0.621%K -0.675%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -11.94%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-26 17:45
Unibet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.18%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.47%EV -7.76%E -0.621%K -0.675%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -11.94%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-26 17:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.18%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.47%EV -7.76%E -0.621%K -0.675%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -11.94%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-26 18:09
Bet Right🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -11.45%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -11.94%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-26 18:14
BoyleSports🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.73%EV -5.55%E -4.71%K -30.85%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -26.21%E -2.62%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -11.94%E -1.71%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-26 18:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.69%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.37%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.67%EV -11.45%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.64%EV -15.08%E -2.23%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-26 18:10
TABtouch🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.69%EV -6.35%E -5.43%K -37.37%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.67%EV -11.45%E -0.954%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.64%EV -15.08%E -2.23%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-26 18:09
Betsson🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.22%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.50%EV +7.00%E +0.482%K +0.518%G +0.036%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.28%EV -16.97%E -2.57%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-26 18:44
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.22%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.50%EV +7.00%E +0.482%K +0.518%G +0.036%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.28%EV -16.97%E -2.57%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-26 18:44
TAB🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -3.95%E -3.29%K -19.76%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -18.23%E -2.80%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-26 18:53
PlayUp🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.46%EV -4.75%E -3.99%K -25.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV -4.07%E -0.313%K -0.339%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -18.23%E -2.80%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-26 18:55
利润率 = 利润率(超额概率) · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间,因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变,并不代表数据已经失效。通常,约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除;只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时,才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (6)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.75%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.65%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.60%0.3%2026-08-26 18:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.75%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.65%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.60%0.3%2026-08-26 18:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.75%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.65%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.60%0.3%2026-08-26 18:55
Matchbook1.22I 81.97%NM 81.53%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.63%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.84%0.5%2026-08-26 18:55
Smarkets1.20I 83.33%NM 81.99%14.99I 6.67%NM 6.56%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.44%1.6%2026-08-26 18:50
Kalshi1.20I 83.33%NM 81.43%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.84%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.73%2.3%2026-08-26 18:05