L’École des cotes

Real Madrid v Oviedo

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-14 19:30 UTC

Score final : Real Madrid 2–0 Oviedo

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Real Madrid (Local)

Prévision 75.68%1.32cote équitable
EV -3.12%
Avantage -2.44%
Kelly -11.16%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.28

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
73.28%75.61%75.67%78.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.201.241.251.2883.33%80.37%80.00%78.13%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Oviedo (Visiteur)

Prévision 9.37%10.67cote équitable
EV +17.13%
Avantage +1.37%
Kelly +1.49%
Croissance +0.255%

avec la cote maximale 12.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
7.77%9.41%9.50%11.45%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
8.0010.2210.0012.5012.50%9.79%10.00%8.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 14.94%6.69cote équitable
EV +4.61%
Avantage +0.659%
Kelly +0.769%
Croissance +0.035%

avec la cote maximale 7.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
13.85%14.98%14.83%16.27%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
5.756.296.407.0017.39%15.89%15.63%14.29%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet (NL)1.24I 80.65%NM 78.35%EV -6.15%E -4.96%K -25.63%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.77%EV +17.13%E +1.37%K +1.49%G +0.255%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.88%EV +4.61%E +0.659%K +0.769%G +0.035%2.9%2026-05-14 18:35
Bet Victor1.22I 81.97%NM 77.56%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.84%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +12.44%E +1.04%K +1.13%G +0.141%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 19:25
ATG (SE)1.27I 78.74%NM 77.01%EV -3.88%E -3.06%K -14.37%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.50%EV +7.76%E +0.675%K +0.739%G +0.057%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.49%EV +0.878%E +0.130%K +0.153%G +0.001%2.3%2026-05-14 18:35
Unibet (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 77.29%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.40%EV +7.76%E +0.675%K +0.739%G +0.057%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV +0.878%E +0.130%K +0.153%G +0.001%3.5%2026-05-14 18:30
Svenska Spel1.25I 80.00%NM 77.29%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.40%EV +7.76%E +0.675%K +0.739%G +0.057%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV +0.878%E +0.130%K +0.153%G +0.001%3.5%2026-05-14 18:30
Betsson1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.23%EV +7.76%E +0.675%K +0.739%G +0.057%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.04%EV -11.82%E -2.00%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-14 19:20
Coolbet1.28I 78.13%NM 76.14%EV -3.12%E -2.44%K -11.16%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.86%EV +3.07%E +0.279%K +0.307%G +0.009%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.99%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-14 19:25
Marathon Bet1.27I 78.74%NM 76.37%EV -3.88%E -3.06%K -14.37%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.82%EV +3.07%E +0.279%K +0.307%G +0.009%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.81%EV -2.11%E -0.322%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-14 19:20
Grosvenor1.24I 80.65%NM 76.54%EV -6.15%E -4.96%K -25.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +3.07%E +0.279%K +0.307%G +0.009%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.83%EV -4.35%E -0.680%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 18:31
Casumo1.24I 80.65%NM 76.54%EV -6.15%E -4.96%K -25.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +3.07%E +0.279%K +0.307%G +0.009%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.83%EV -4.35%E -0.680%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 18:30
betPARX1.24I 80.65%NM 76.54%EV -6.15%E -4.96%K -25.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +3.07%E +0.279%K +0.307%G +0.009%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.83%EV -4.35%E -0.680%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 18:30
Bally Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 76.54%EV -6.15%E -4.96%K -25.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +3.07%E +0.279%K +0.307%G +0.009%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.83%EV -4.35%E -0.680%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 18:30
betfred_uk1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV +3.07%E +0.279%K +0.307%G +0.009%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 19:26
theScore Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV +3.07%E +0.279%K +0.307%G +0.009%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 19:26
PlayUp1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.84%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +3.07%E +0.279%K +0.307%G +0.009%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-14 19:25
LowVig.ag1.26I 79.37%NM 76.82%EV -4.64%E -3.68%K -17.84%G +0.000%10.90I 9.17%NM 8.88%EV +2.14%E +0.196%K +0.216%G +0.005%6.77I 14.77%NM 14.30%EV +1.18%E +0.174%K +0.204%G +0.002%3.3%2026-05-14 19:26
BetOnline.ag1.26I 79.37%NM 76.82%EV -4.64%E -3.68%K -17.84%G +0.000%10.90I 9.17%NM 8.88%EV +2.14%E +0.196%K +0.216%G +0.005%6.77I 14.77%NM 14.30%EV +1.18%E +0.174%K +0.204%G +0.002%3.3%2026-05-14 19:26
1xBet1.26I 79.37%NM 76.68%EV -4.64%E -3.68%K -17.84%G +0.000%10.80I 9.26%NM 8.95%EV +1.20%E +0.111%K +0.122%G +0.001%6.72I 14.88%NM 14.38%EV +0.430%E +0.064%K +0.075%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-14 19:26
NordicBet1.27I 78.74%NM 74.84%EV -3.88%E -3.06%K -14.37%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -1.61%E -0.154%K -0.170%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.11%EV -11.82%E -2.00%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-14 19:15
SportsBet1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -1.61%E -0.154%K -0.170%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-14 18:16
Tipico (DE)1.22I 81.97%NM 77.18%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.84%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -1.61%E -0.154%K -0.170%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.85%EV +1.63%E +0.239%K +0.280%G +0.005%6.2%2026-05-14 19:26
Betr (AU)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.83%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -1.61%E -0.154%K -0.170%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -14.07%E -2.45%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-14 19:26
NetBet (FR)1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -6.91%E -5.62%K -30.03%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -1.61%E -0.154%K -0.170%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -8.84%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-14 19:25
Pinnacle1.28I 78.13%NM 75.84%EV -3.12%E -2.44%K -11.16%G +0.000%10.27I 9.74%NM 9.45%EV -3.77%E -0.367%K -0.406%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.71%EV -1.36%E -0.207%K -0.243%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-14 19:16
Unibet (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 75.77%EV -4.64%E -3.68%K -17.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.55%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.69%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-14 19:05
DraftKings1.26I 79.37%NM 75.77%EV -4.64%E -3.68%K -17.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.55%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.69%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-14 19:26
Betclic (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 75.77%EV -4.64%E -3.68%K -17.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.55%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.69%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-14 19:02
Sky Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 19:15
Bovada1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 19:26
TAB1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 19:26
Everygame1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 19:25
BetUS1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 19:26
Unibet (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-14 19:26
Bet Right1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -14.07%E -2.45%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-14 19:26
Paddy Power1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-14 18:15
LeoVegas (SE)1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-14 18:35
Unibet1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-14 18:30
TABtouch1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-14 18:30
Virgin Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 75.60%EV -8.42%E -6.96%K -40.10%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-14 18:35
LiveScore Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 75.60%EV -8.42%E -6.96%K -40.10%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-14 18:35
Fliff1.21I 82.64%NM 75.82%EV -8.42%E -6.96%K -40.10%G +0.000%9.90I 10.10%NM 9.27%EV -7.23%E -0.731%K -0.813%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 14.92%EV -8.09%E -1.32%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-14 19:26
Codere (IT)1.26I 79.37%NM 75.45%EV -4.64%E -3.68%K -17.84%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.70%EV -8.17%E -0.834%K -0.929%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.85%EV -4.35%E -0.680%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-14 19:25
BetMGM1.27I 78.74%NM 75.24%EV -3.88%E -3.06%K -14.37%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.06%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-14 19:25
Fanatics1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-14 19:26
Ladbrokes (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-14 19:26
Coral1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-14 19:26
Mr Green (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-14 19:21
William Hill1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-14 19:21
BoyleSports1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.84%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-14 19:25
BetRivers1.22I 81.97%NM 74.70%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.84%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.59%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.71%EV -13.32%E -2.30%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-14 18:30
PMU (FR)1.21I 82.64%NM 74.85%EV -8.42%E -6.96%K -40.10%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.53%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV -13.32%E -2.30%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-14 18:30
LeoVegas1.20I 83.33%NM 75.01%EV -9.18%E -7.65%K -45.89%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.52%EV -13.32%E -2.30%K -2.77%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-14 18:30
Neds1.24I 80.65%NM 75.31%EV -6.15%E -4.96%K -25.63%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.10%EV -13.32%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -4.35%E -0.680%K -0.806%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-14 19:26
Ladbrokes (AU)1.24I 80.65%NM 75.31%EV -6.15%E -4.96%K -25.63%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.10%EV -13.32%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -4.35%E -0.680%K -0.806%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-14 19:26
Betway1.25I 80.00%NM 75.12%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -15.67%E -1.74%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-14 19:15
FanDuel1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.64%E -3.68%K -17.84%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -15.67%E -1.74%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-14 18:45
Winamax (DE)1.27I 78.74%NM 73.93%EV -3.88%E -3.06%K -14.37%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.05%EV -20.35%E -2.39%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -6.59%E -1.06%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-14 19:11
Winamax (FR)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.28%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV -25.04%E -3.13%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-14 19:00
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.27I 78.74%NM 78.25%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.80%0.6%2026-05-14 19:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.28I 78.13%NM 77.55%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.27%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.18%0.7%2026-05-14 19:26
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.28I 78.13%NM 77.55%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.27%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.18%0.7%2026-05-14 19:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 77.55%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.27%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.18%0.7%2026-05-14 19:21
Smarkets1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.25%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.76%1.0%2026-05-14 19:26
Kalshi1.28I 78.13%NM 76.50%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.81%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.68%2.1%2026-05-14 19:15