La escuela de los momios

Real Madrid v Oviedo

Inicio: 2026-05-14 19:30 UTC

Final: Real Madrid 2–0 Oviedo

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Real Madrid (Local)

Predicción 75.68%1.32momio equitativo
EV -3.12%
Ventaja -2.44%
Kelly -11.16%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
73.28%75.61%75.67%78.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.201.241.251.2883.33%80.37%80.00%78.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Oviedo (Visitante)

Predicción 9.37%10.67momio equitativo
EV +17.13%
Ventaja +1.37%
Kelly +1.49%
Crecimiento +0.255%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 12.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
7.77%9.41%9.50%11.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
8.0010.2210.0012.5012.50%9.79%10.00%8.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 14.94%6.69momio equitativo
EV +4.61%
Ventaja +0.659%
Kelly +0.769%
Crecimiento +0.035%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.85%14.98%14.83%16.27%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.756.296.407.0017.39%15.89%15.63%14.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)1.24I 80.65%NM 78.35%EV -6.15%E -4.96%K -25.63%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.77%EV +17.13%E +1.37%K +1.49%G +0.255%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.88%EV +4.61%E +0.659%K +0.769%G +0.035%2.9%2026-05-14 18:35
Bet Victor1.22I 81.97%NM 77.56%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.84%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +12.44%E +1.04%K +1.13%G +0.141%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 19:25
ATG (SE)1.27I 78.74%NM 77.01%EV -3.88%E -3.06%K -14.37%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.50%EV +7.76%E +0.675%K +0.739%G +0.057%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.49%EV +0.878%E +0.130%K +0.153%G +0.001%2.3%2026-05-14 18:35
Unibet (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 77.29%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.40%EV +7.76%E +0.675%K +0.739%G +0.057%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV +0.878%E +0.130%K +0.153%G +0.001%3.5%2026-05-14 18:30
Svenska Spel1.25I 80.00%NM 77.29%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.40%EV +7.76%E +0.675%K +0.739%G +0.057%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.31%EV +0.878%E +0.130%K +0.153%G +0.001%3.5%2026-05-14 18:30
Betsson1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.23%EV +7.76%E +0.675%K +0.739%G +0.057%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.04%EV -11.82%E -2.00%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-14 19:20
Coolbet1.28I 78.13%NM 76.14%EV -3.12%E -2.44%K -11.16%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.86%EV +3.07%E +0.279%K +0.307%G +0.009%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.99%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-14 19:25
Marathon Bet1.27I 78.74%NM 76.37%EV -3.88%E -3.06%K -14.37%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.82%EV +3.07%E +0.279%K +0.307%G +0.009%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.81%EV -2.11%E -0.322%K -0.380%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-14 19:20
Grosvenor1.24I 80.65%NM 76.54%EV -6.15%E -4.96%K -25.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +3.07%E +0.279%K +0.307%G +0.009%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.83%EV -4.35%E -0.680%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 18:31
Casumo1.24I 80.65%NM 76.54%EV -6.15%E -4.96%K -25.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +3.07%E +0.279%K +0.307%G +0.009%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.83%EV -4.35%E -0.680%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 18:30
betPARX1.24I 80.65%NM 76.54%EV -6.15%E -4.96%K -25.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +3.07%E +0.279%K +0.307%G +0.009%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.83%EV -4.35%E -0.680%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 18:30
Bally Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 76.54%EV -6.15%E -4.96%K -25.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +3.07%E +0.279%K +0.307%G +0.009%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.83%EV -4.35%E -0.680%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 18:30
betfred_uk1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV +3.07%E +0.279%K +0.307%G +0.009%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 19:26
theScore Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV +3.07%E +0.279%K +0.307%G +0.009%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 19:26
PlayUp1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.84%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +3.07%E +0.279%K +0.307%G +0.009%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-14 19:25
LowVig.ag1.26I 79.37%NM 76.82%EV -4.64%E -3.68%K -17.84%G +0.000%10.90I 9.17%NM 8.88%EV +2.14%E +0.196%K +0.216%G +0.005%6.77I 14.77%NM 14.30%EV +1.18%E +0.174%K +0.204%G +0.002%3.3%2026-05-14 19:26
BetOnline.ag1.26I 79.37%NM 76.82%EV -4.64%E -3.68%K -17.84%G +0.000%10.90I 9.17%NM 8.88%EV +2.14%E +0.196%K +0.216%G +0.005%6.77I 14.77%NM 14.30%EV +1.18%E +0.174%K +0.204%G +0.002%3.3%2026-05-14 19:26
1xBet1.26I 79.37%NM 76.68%EV -4.64%E -3.68%K -17.84%G +0.000%10.80I 9.26%NM 8.95%EV +1.20%E +0.111%K +0.122%G +0.001%6.72I 14.88%NM 14.38%EV +0.430%E +0.064%K +0.075%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-14 19:26
NordicBet1.27I 78.74%NM 74.84%EV -3.88%E -3.06%K -14.37%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -1.61%E -0.154%K -0.170%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.11%EV -11.82%E -2.00%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-14 19:15
SportsBet1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -1.61%E -0.154%K -0.170%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-14 18:16
Tipico (DE)1.22I 81.97%NM 77.18%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.84%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -1.61%E -0.154%K -0.170%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.85%EV +1.63%E +0.239%K +0.280%G +0.005%6.2%2026-05-14 19:26
Betr (AU)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.83%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -1.61%E -0.154%K -0.170%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -14.07%E -2.45%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-14 19:26
NetBet (FR)1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -6.91%E -5.62%K -30.03%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -1.61%E -0.154%K -0.170%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -8.84%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-14 19:25
Pinnacle1.28I 78.13%NM 75.84%EV -3.12%E -2.44%K -11.16%G +0.000%10.27I 9.74%NM 9.45%EV -3.77%E -0.367%K -0.406%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.71%EV -1.36%E -0.207%K -0.243%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-14 19:16
Unibet (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 75.77%EV -4.64%E -3.68%K -17.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.55%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.69%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-14 19:05
DraftKings1.26I 79.37%NM 75.77%EV -4.64%E -3.68%K -17.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.55%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.69%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-14 19:26
Betclic (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 75.77%EV -4.64%E -3.68%K -17.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.55%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.69%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-14 19:02
Sky Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 19:15
Bovada1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 19:26
TAB1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 19:26
Everygame1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 19:25
BetUS1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 19:26
Unibet (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-14 19:26
Bet Right1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -14.07%E -2.45%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-14 19:26
Paddy Power1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-14 18:15
LeoVegas (SE)1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-14 18:35
Unibet1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-14 18:30
TABtouch1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-14 18:30
Virgin Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 75.60%EV -8.42%E -6.96%K -40.10%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-14 18:35
LiveScore Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 75.60%EV -8.42%E -6.96%K -40.10%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -6.30%E -0.630%K -0.700%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-14 18:35
Fliff1.21I 82.64%NM 75.82%EV -8.42%E -6.96%K -40.10%G +0.000%9.90I 10.10%NM 9.27%EV -7.23%E -0.731%K -0.813%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 14.92%EV -8.09%E -1.32%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-14 19:26
Codere (IT)1.26I 79.37%NM 75.45%EV -4.64%E -3.68%K -17.84%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.70%EV -8.17%E -0.834%K -0.929%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.85%EV -4.35%E -0.680%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-14 19:25
BetMGM1.27I 78.74%NM 75.24%EV -3.88%E -3.06%K -14.37%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.06%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-14 19:25
Fanatics1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-14 19:26
Ladbrokes (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-14 19:26
Coral1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-14 19:26
Mr Green (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-14 19:21
William Hill1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-14 19:21
BoyleSports1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.84%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-14 19:25
BetRivers1.22I 81.97%NM 74.70%EV -7.66%E -6.28%K -34.84%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.59%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.71%EV -13.32%E -2.30%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-14 18:30
PMU (FR)1.21I 82.64%NM 74.85%EV -8.42%E -6.96%K -40.10%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.53%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV -13.32%E -2.30%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-14 18:30
LeoVegas1.20I 83.33%NM 75.01%EV -9.18%E -7.65%K -45.89%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -10.98%E -1.16%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.52%EV -13.32%E -2.30%K -2.77%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-14 18:30
Neds1.24I 80.65%NM 75.31%EV -6.15%E -4.96%K -25.63%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.10%EV -13.32%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -4.35%E -0.680%K -0.806%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-14 19:26
Ladbrokes (AU)1.24I 80.65%NM 75.31%EV -6.15%E -4.96%K -25.63%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.10%EV -13.32%E -1.44%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -4.35%E -0.680%K -0.806%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-14 19:26
Betway1.25I 80.00%NM 75.12%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -15.67%E -1.74%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -2.86%E -0.440%K -0.520%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-14 19:15
FanDuel1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.64%E -3.68%K -17.84%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -15.67%E -1.74%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-14 18:45
Winamax (DE)1.27I 78.74%NM 73.93%EV -3.88%E -3.06%K -14.37%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.05%EV -20.35%E -2.39%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -6.59%E -1.06%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-14 19:11
Winamax (FR)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.28%EV -5.39%E -4.32%K -21.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV -25.04%E -3.13%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -10.33%E -1.72%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-14 19:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.27I 78.74%NM 78.25%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.80%0.6%2026-05-14 19:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.28I 78.13%NM 77.55%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.27%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.18%0.7%2026-05-14 19:26
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.28I 78.13%NM 77.55%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.27%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.18%0.7%2026-05-14 19:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 77.55%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.27%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.18%0.7%2026-05-14 19:21
Smarkets1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.25%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.76%1.0%2026-05-14 19:26
Kalshi1.28I 78.13%NM 76.50%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.81%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.68%2.1%2026-05-14 19:15