L’École des cotes

Rayo Vallecano v Villarreal

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-17 17:00 UTC

Score final : Rayo Vallecano 2–0 Villarreal

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Rayo Vallecano (Local)

Prévision 43.55%2.30cote équitable
EV -0.713%
Avantage -0.313%
Kelly -0.557%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.28

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
41.67%43.49%43.64%44.71%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.072.172.172.2848.31%46.04%45.98%43.86%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Villarreal (Visiteur)

Prévision 29.75%3.36cote équitable
EV +3.23%
Avantage +0.931%
Kelly +1.31%
Croissance +0.042%

avec la cote maximale 3.47

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.35%29.79%29.68%31.28%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.903.133.153.4734.48%31.94%31.75%28.82%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 26.70%3.74cote équitable
EV -1.20%
Avantage -0.324%
Kelly -0.444%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.70

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.54%26.73%26.68%29.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.513.503.7033.33%28.51%28.57%27.03%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet2.20I 45.45%NM 44.71%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 28.35%EV +3.23%E +0.931%K +1.31%G +0.042%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.95%EV -2.53%E -0.694%K -0.956%G +0.000%1.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Marathon Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 44.70%EV -5.50%E -2.54%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.36%EV +1.74%E +0.510%K +0.721%G +0.013%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -3.87%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Pinnacle2.20I 45.45%NM 44.17%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.27%EV -1.23%E -0.371%K -0.531%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.55%EV -2.27%E -0.619%K -0.852%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Coolbet2.22I 45.05%NM 43.84%EV -3.33%E -1.50%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.49%EV -1.83%E -0.553%K -0.794%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.67%EV -2.53%E -0.694%K -0.956%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-17 10:39
Bovada2.16I 46.30%NM 43.99%EV -5.94%E -2.75%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.24%EV -3.31%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -3.31%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:39
William Hill2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -3.31%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 10:39
BetOnline.ag2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -0.713%E -0.313%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.94%EV -3.91%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.63%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 10:40
LowVig.ag2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -0.713%E -0.313%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.94%EV -3.91%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.63%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 10:40
Betclic (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.72%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.78%EV -3.91%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.50%EV -3.07%E -0.845%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-17 10:31
Codere (IT)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.73%EV -5.07%E -2.32%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.79%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -3.87%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 08:15
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 08:16
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -5.07%E -2.32%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -5.07%E -2.32%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.87%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 08:19
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 08:15
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 07:56
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 10:39
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Paddy Power2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.88%E -3.60%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Unibet (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 43.12%EV -2.89%E -1.30%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.53%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.35%EV -2.53%E -0.694%K -0.956%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-17 10:39
Unibet (NL)2.23I 44.84%NM 43.12%EV -2.89%E -1.30%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.53%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.35%EV -2.53%E -0.694%K -0.956%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-17 10:40
Svenska Spel2.23I 44.84%NM 43.12%EV -2.89%E -1.30%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.53%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.35%EV -2.53%E -0.694%K -0.956%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-17 10:40
ATG (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 43.12%EV -2.89%E -1.30%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.53%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.35%EV -2.53%E -0.694%K -0.956%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-17 10:40
BetUS2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -2.02%E -0.897%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.62%EV -8.14%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 09:45
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 43.14%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.73%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 07:50
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -3.87%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 10:40
NetBet (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 44.13%EV -9.86%E -4.76%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.00%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 10:40
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -1.20%E -0.324%K -0.444%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 08:20
Casumo2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Grosvenor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:40
betPARX2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Bally Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 08:15
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:56
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -3.87%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 10:39
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -7.87%E -2.28%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:15
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -7.87%E -2.28%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:15
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.07%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -2.53%E -0.694%K -0.956%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 10:39
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 10:39
TAB2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 10:39
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -9.26%E -3.04%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-17 10:40
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -3.87%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 08:20
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -3.87%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 08:20
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 08:20
Unibet2.15I 46.51%NM 42.74%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.87%E -2.28%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 10:39
LeoVegas (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.74%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.87%E -2.28%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 10:40
TABtouch2.15I 46.51%NM 42.74%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.87%E -2.28%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -19.89%E -6.63%K -9.95%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-17 10:40
BetRivers2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -6.81%E -3.18%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.81%EV -12.24%E -4.15%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 10:40
LiveScore Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 42.70%EV -7.68%E -3.62%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.68%EV -12.24%E -4.15%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-17 10:39
Virgin Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 42.70%EV -7.68%E -3.62%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.68%EV -12.24%E -4.15%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-17 10:40
PMU (FR)2.12I 47.17%NM 42.53%EV -7.68%E -3.62%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -12.24%E -4.15%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -10.54%E -3.15%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-17 10:40
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -13.73%E -4.73%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-17 07:45
LeoVegas2.10I 47.62%NM 42.54%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.80%EV -13.73%E -4.73%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -10.54%E -3.15%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 10:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.7%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.7%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Matchbook2.28I 43.86%NM 43.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Smarkets2.24I 44.64%NM 43.97%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.40%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62%1.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 43.17%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-05-17 07:50