La escuela de los momios

Rayo Vallecano v Villarreal

Inicio: 2026-05-17 17:00 UTC

Final: Rayo Vallecano 2–0 Villarreal

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Rayo Vallecano (Local)

Predicción 43.55%2.30momio equitativo
EV -0.713%
Ventaja -0.313%
Kelly -0.557%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.67%43.49%43.64%44.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.072.172.172.2848.31%46.04%45.98%43.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Villarreal (Visitante)

Predicción 29.75%3.36momio equitativo
EV +3.23%
Ventaja +0.931%
Kelly +1.31%
Crecimiento +0.042%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.47

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.35%29.79%29.68%31.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.903.133.153.4734.48%31.94%31.75%28.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.70%3.74momio equitativo
EV -1.20%
Ventaja -0.324%
Kelly -0.444%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.54%26.73%26.68%29.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.513.503.7033.33%28.51%28.57%27.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.20I 45.45%NM 44.71%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 28.35%EV +3.23%E +0.931%K +1.31%G +0.042%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.95%EV -2.53%E -0.694%K -0.956%G +0.000%1.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Marathon Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 44.70%EV -5.50%E -2.54%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.36%EV +1.74%E +0.510%K +0.721%G +0.013%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -3.87%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Pinnacle2.20I 45.45%NM 44.17%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.27%EV -1.23%E -0.371%K -0.531%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.55%EV -2.27%E -0.619%K -0.852%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Coolbet2.22I 45.05%NM 43.84%EV -3.33%E -1.50%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.49%EV -1.83%E -0.553%K -0.794%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.67%EV -2.53%E -0.694%K -0.956%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-17 10:39
Bovada2.16I 46.30%NM 43.99%EV -5.94%E -2.75%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.24%EV -3.31%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -3.31%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:39
William Hill2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -3.31%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 10:39
BetOnline.ag2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -0.713%E -0.313%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.94%EV -3.91%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.63%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 10:40
LowVig.ag2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -0.713%E -0.313%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.94%EV -3.91%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.63%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 10:40
Betclic (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.72%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.78%EV -3.91%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.50%EV -3.07%E -0.845%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-17 10:31
Codere (IT)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.73%EV -5.07%E -2.32%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.79%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -3.87%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 08:15
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 08:16
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -5.07%E -2.32%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -5.07%E -2.32%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.87%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 08:19
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 08:15
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 07:56
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 10:39
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Paddy Power2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.88%E -3.60%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Unibet (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 43.12%EV -2.89%E -1.30%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.53%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.35%EV -2.53%E -0.694%K -0.956%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-17 10:39
Unibet (NL)2.23I 44.84%NM 43.12%EV -2.89%E -1.30%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.53%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.35%EV -2.53%E -0.694%K -0.956%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-17 10:40
Svenska Spel2.23I 44.84%NM 43.12%EV -2.89%E -1.30%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.53%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.35%EV -2.53%E -0.694%K -0.956%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-17 10:40
ATG (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 43.12%EV -2.89%E -1.30%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.53%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.35%EV -2.53%E -0.694%K -0.956%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-17 10:40
BetUS2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -2.02%E -0.897%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.62%EV -8.14%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 09:45
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 43.14%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.73%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 07:50
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -3.87%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 10:40
NetBet (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 44.13%EV -9.86%E -4.76%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.00%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 10:40
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -1.20%E -0.324%K -0.444%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 08:20
Casumo2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Grosvenor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:40
betPARX2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Bally Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 08:15
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:56
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -3.87%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 10:39
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -7.87%E -2.28%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:15
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -7.87%E -2.28%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 08:15
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.07%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -2.53%E -0.694%K -0.956%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 10:39
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 10:39
TAB2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 10:39
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -9.26%E -3.04%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-17 10:40
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -3.87%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 08:20
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -4.20%E -1.91%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -3.87%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 08:20
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 08:20
Unibet2.15I 46.51%NM 42.74%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.87%E -2.28%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 10:39
LeoVegas (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.74%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.87%E -2.28%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 10:40
TABtouch2.15I 46.51%NM 42.74%EV -6.37%E -2.96%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.87%E -2.28%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -19.89%E -6.63%K -9.95%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-17 10:40
BetRivers2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -6.81%E -3.18%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.81%EV -12.24%E -4.15%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 10:40
LiveScore Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 42.70%EV -7.68%E -3.62%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.68%EV -12.24%E -4.15%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-17 10:39
Virgin Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 42.70%EV -7.68%E -3.62%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.68%EV -12.24%E -4.15%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-17 10:40
PMU (FR)2.12I 47.17%NM 42.53%EV -7.68%E -3.62%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -12.24%E -4.15%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -10.54%E -3.15%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-17 10:40
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -13.73%E -4.73%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-17 07:45
LeoVegas2.10I 47.62%NM 42.54%EV -8.55%E -4.07%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.80%EV -13.73%E -4.73%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -10.54%E -3.15%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 10:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.7%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.7%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Matchbook2.28I 43.86%NM 43.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Smarkets2.24I 44.64%NM 43.97%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.40%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62%1.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 43.17%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-05-17 07:50