Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oviedo v Atlético Madrid

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oviedo (Local)

Prediction 19.92%5.02fair odd
EV +5.57%
Edge +1.05%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.072%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.30%20.02%19.88%22.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.794.755.3023.26%20.89%21.05%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlético Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 53.30%1.88fair odd
EV +0.744%
Edge +0.394%
Kelly +0.836%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.83%53.23%53.28%55.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.761.771.8959.88%56.70%56.66%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.78%3.73fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.619%
Kelly -0.853%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.97%26.74%26.84%28.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.513.503.6532.26%28.49%28.57%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oviedo (Local): 19.92%; Atlético Madrid (Visit): 53.30%; Draw: 26.78%. For Oviedo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.02. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.57%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.30%EV +5.57%E +1.05%K +1.29%G +0.072%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.12%EV -6.19%E -3.51%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.58%EV -2.26%E -0.619%K -0.853%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-28 19:45
ATG (SE)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.55%EV +4.57%E +0.871%K +1.08%G +0.049%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.40%EV -4.59%E -2.56%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.05%EV -3.60%E -1.000%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.7%2026-02-28 19:44
Unibet (SE)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.44%EV +4.57%E +0.871%K +1.08%G +0.049%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.68%EV -5.65%E -3.19%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.88%EV -3.60%E -1.000%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-28 19:44
Svenska Spel🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.44%EV +4.57%E +0.871%K +1.08%G +0.049%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.68%EV -5.65%E -3.19%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.88%EV -3.60%E -1.000%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-28 19:44
1xBet🎯5.15I 19.42%NM 18.80%EV +2.58%E +0.501%K +0.622%G +0.016%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.08%EV -4.59%E -2.56%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.12%EV -4.40%E -1.23%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-28 19:54
Casumo🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV +1.58%E +0.311%K +0.386%G +0.006%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.83%EV -8.85%E -5.18%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:44
Grosvenor🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV +1.58%E +0.311%K +0.386%G +0.006%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.83%EV -8.85%E -5.18%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:44
Unibet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV +1.58%E +0.311%K +0.386%G +0.006%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.83%EV -8.85%E -5.18%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:44
TABtouch🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV +1.58%E +0.311%K +0.386%G +0.006%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.83%EV -8.85%E -5.18%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV +1.58%E +0.311%K +0.386%G +0.006%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.83%EV -8.85%E -5.18%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:45
betPARX🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV +1.58%E +0.311%K +0.386%G +0.006%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.83%EV -8.85%E -5.18%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:44
Bally Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV +1.58%E +0.311%K +0.386%G +0.006%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.83%EV -8.85%E -5.18%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:44
BetRivers🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV +1.58%E +0.311%K +0.386%G +0.006%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.97%EV -9.38%E -5.52%K -13.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 19:45
Coolbet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.47%EV -0.408%E -0.082%K -0.102%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.49%EV -2.99%E -1.64%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.04%EV -3.60%E -1.000%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.7%2026-02-28 19:34
LowVig.ag🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.31%EV -0.408%E -0.082%K -0.102%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.24%EV -5.12%E -2.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.45%EV -2.26%E -0.619%K -0.853%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-28 19:39
BetOnline.ag🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.31%EV -0.408%E -0.082%K -0.102%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.24%EV -5.12%E -2.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.45%EV -2.26%E -0.619%K -0.853%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-28 19:40
Bet Victor🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -0.408%E -0.082%K -0.102%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.05%EV -6.72%E -3.84%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 19:49
theScore Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -0.408%E -0.082%K -0.102%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.20%EV -7.25%E -4.17%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-27 21:04
LeoVegas🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -0.408%E -0.082%K -0.102%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.86%EV -10.45%E -6.22%K -15.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-28 19:45
Pinnacle🎯4.92I 20.33%NM 19.75%EV -2.00%E -0.407%K -0.511%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.10%EV -2.45%E -1.34%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.14%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.9%2026-02-28 19:44
Betclic (FR)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.64%EV -2.40%E -0.490%K -0.615%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.47%EV -4.05%E -2.25%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.89%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-28 19:53
FanDuel🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.35%EV -2.40%E -0.490%K -0.615%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.56%EV -5.65%E -3.19%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.09%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 19:44
Tipico (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -2.40%E -0.490%K -0.615%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.85%EV -6.72%E -3.84%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 19:39
Unibet (FR)🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -3.40%E -0.700%K -0.882%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.51%EV -7.78%E -4.50%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.05%EV -3.06%E -0.846%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 19:55
PMU (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -4.39%E -0.915%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.28%EV -6.19%E -3.51%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 19:44
Fanatics🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.02%EV -5.39%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.82%EV -4.05%E -2.25%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-28 19:39
Bovada🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.97%EV -5.39%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.30%EV -5.12%E -2.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.73%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 19:49
Everygame🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.94%EV -5.39%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.61%EV -4.05%E -2.25%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.45%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 19:40
Sky Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.87%EV -5.39%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.92%EV -6.72%E -3.84%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.60%E -1.000%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 19:35
SportsBet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -5.39%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.52%EV -6.72%E -3.84%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 19:39
Paddy Power🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -5.39%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -6.72%E -3.84%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.95%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-28 19:44
LiveScore Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -5.39%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.04%EV -9.38%E -5.52%K -13.41%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 19:44
Virgin Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -5.39%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -9.38%E -5.52%K -13.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.95%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-28 19:44
DraftKings🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -6.38%E -1.36%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.11%EV -4.05%E -2.25%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.55%EV -3.60%E -1.000%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-28 19:39
Winamax (DE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.17%EV -6.38%E -1.36%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.86%EV -6.19%E -3.51%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.97%EV -2.26%E -0.619%K -0.853%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 19:54
NetBet (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.76%EV -6.38%E -1.36%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.69%EV -7.78%E -4.50%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 19:54
Winamax (FR)🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 20.07%EV -7.38%E -1.59%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.64%EV -7.25%E -4.17%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 19:55
Codere (IT)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.63%EV -8.38%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.01%EV -4.59%E -2.56%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -3.60%E -1.000%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 19:54
Unibet (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -8.38%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.15%EV -5.12%E -2.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -3.60%E -1.000%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 19:54
William Hill🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -8.38%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -6.72%E -3.84%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -11.63%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-28 19:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -8.38%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -6.72%E -3.84%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -11.63%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-28 19:55
Betway🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -10.37%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.65%E -3.19%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -3.60%E -1.000%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-28 19:55
Betr (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -10.37%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.52%EV -5.12%E -2.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 19:55
TAB🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -10.37%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -4.05%E -2.25%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.95%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 19:44
BoyleSports🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -10.37%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%EV -7.78%E -4.50%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -8.95%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-28 19:39
Fliff🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.18%EV -10.37%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.11%EV -8.85%E -5.18%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -8.95%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-28 19:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.43%EV -10.37%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.36%EV -10.98%E -6.58%K -16.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.21%EV -16.99%E -5.48%K -8.09%G +0.000%14.4%2026-02-28 19:44
Betsson🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 21.28%EV -11.36%E -2.55%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.04%EV -2.99%E -1.64%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.68%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 19:54
NordicBet🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 21.28%EV -11.36%E -2.55%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.04%EV -2.99%E -1.64%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.68%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 19:54
Coral🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -12.36%E -2.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -2.45%E -1.34%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 19:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -12.36%E -2.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -2.45%E -1.34%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 19:14
BetMGM🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -12.36%E -2.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -2.45%E -1.34%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 19:25
Neds🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -12.36%E -2.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -2.99%E -1.64%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -12.36%E -2.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -2.99%E -1.64%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:14
Bet Right🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.16%EV -12.36%E -2.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.61%EV -5.65%E -3.19%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 19:55
Marathon Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.34%EV -14.35%E -3.34%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.83%EV +0.744%E +0.394%K +0.836%G +0.006%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.83%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-28 19:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.77%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.5%2026-02-28 19:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.77%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.5%2026-02-28 19:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.77%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.5%2026-02-28 19:54
Matchbook5.30I 18.87%NM 18.77%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.5%2026-02-28 19:49
Smarkets5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.49%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-02-28 19:54