La escuela de los momios

Oviedo v Atlético Madrid

Inicio: 2026-02-28 20:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Oviedo (Local)

Predicción 19.92%5.02momio equitativo
EV +5.57%
Ventaja +1.05%
Kelly +1.29%
Crecimiento +0.072%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.30%20.02%19.88%22.34%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.304.794.755.3023.26%20.89%21.05%18.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Atlético Madrid (Visitante)

Predicción 53.30%1.88momio equitativo
EV +0.744%
Ventaja +0.394%
Kelly +0.836%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.89

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.83%53.23%53.28%55.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.671.761.771.8959.88%56.70%56.66%52.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.78%3.73momio equitativo
EV -2.26%
Ventaja -0.619%
Kelly -0.853%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.97%26.74%26.84%28.21%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.513.503.6532.26%28.49%28.57%27.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.30%EV +5.57%E +1.05%K +1.29%G +0.072%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.12%EV -6.19%E -3.51%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.58%EV -2.26%E -0.619%K -0.853%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-28 19:45
ATG (SE)5.25I 19.05%NM 18.55%EV +4.57%E +0.871%K +1.08%G +0.049%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.40%EV -4.59%E -2.56%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.05%EV -3.60%E -1.000%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.7%2026-02-28 19:44
Unibet (SE)5.25I 19.05%NM 18.44%EV +4.57%E +0.871%K +1.08%G +0.049%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.68%EV -5.65%E -3.19%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.88%EV -3.60%E -1.000%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-28 19:44
Svenska Spel5.25I 19.05%NM 18.44%EV +4.57%E +0.871%K +1.08%G +0.049%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.68%EV -5.65%E -3.19%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.88%EV -3.60%E -1.000%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-28 19:44
1xBet5.15I 19.42%NM 18.80%EV +2.58%E +0.501%K +0.622%G +0.016%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.08%EV -4.59%E -2.56%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.12%EV -4.40%E -1.23%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-28 19:54
Casumo5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV +1.58%E +0.311%K +0.386%G +0.006%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.83%EV -8.85%E -5.18%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:44
Grosvenor5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV +1.58%E +0.311%K +0.386%G +0.006%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.83%EV -8.85%E -5.18%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:44
Unibet5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV +1.58%E +0.311%K +0.386%G +0.006%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.83%EV -8.85%E -5.18%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:44
TABtouch5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV +1.58%E +0.311%K +0.386%G +0.006%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.83%EV -8.85%E -5.18%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:45
LeoVegas (SE)5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV +1.58%E +0.311%K +0.386%G +0.006%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.83%EV -8.85%E -5.18%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:45
betPARX5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV +1.58%E +0.311%K +0.386%G +0.006%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.83%EV -8.85%E -5.18%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:44
Bally Bet5.10I 19.61%NM 18.38%EV +1.58%E +0.311%K +0.386%G +0.006%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.83%EV -8.85%E -5.18%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.79%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:44
BetRivers5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV +1.58%E +0.311%K +0.386%G +0.006%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.97%EV -9.38%E -5.52%K -13.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 19:45
Coolbet5.00I 20.00%NM 19.47%EV -0.408%E -0.082%K -0.102%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.49%EV -2.99%E -1.64%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.04%EV -3.60%E -1.000%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.7%2026-02-28 19:34
LowVig.ag5.00I 20.00%NM 19.31%EV -0.408%E -0.082%K -0.102%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.24%EV -5.12%E -2.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.45%EV -2.26%E -0.619%K -0.853%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-28 19:39
BetOnline.ag5.00I 20.00%NM 19.31%EV -0.408%E -0.082%K -0.102%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.24%EV -5.12%E -2.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.45%EV -2.26%E -0.619%K -0.853%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-28 19:40
Bet Victor5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -0.408%E -0.082%K -0.102%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.05%EV -6.72%E -3.84%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 19:49
theScore Bet5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -0.408%E -0.082%K -0.102%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.20%EV -7.25%E -4.17%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-27 21:04
LeoVegas5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -0.408%E -0.082%K -0.102%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.86%EV -10.45%E -6.22%K -15.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-28 19:45
Pinnacle4.92I 20.33%NM 19.75%EV -2.00%E -0.407%K -0.511%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.10%EV -2.45%E -1.34%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.14%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.9%2026-02-28 19:44
Betclic (FR)4.90I 20.41%NM 19.64%EV -2.40%E -0.490%K -0.615%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.47%EV -4.05%E -2.25%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.89%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-28 19:53
FanDuel4.90I 20.41%NM 19.35%EV -2.40%E -0.490%K -0.615%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.56%EV -5.65%E -3.19%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.09%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 19:44
Tipico (DE)4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -2.40%E -0.490%K -0.615%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.85%EV -6.72%E -3.84%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 19:39
Unibet (FR)4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -3.40%E -0.700%K -0.882%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.51%EV -7.78%E -4.50%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.05%EV -3.06%E -0.846%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 19:55
PMU (FR)4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -4.39%E -0.915%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.28%EV -6.19%E -3.51%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 19:44
Fanatics4.75I 21.05%NM 20.02%EV -5.39%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.82%EV -4.05%E -2.25%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-28 19:39
Bovada4.75I 21.05%NM 19.97%EV -5.39%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.30%EV -5.12%E -2.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.73%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 19:49
Everygame4.75I 21.05%NM 19.94%EV -5.39%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.61%EV -4.05%E -2.25%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.45%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 19:40
Sky Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.87%EV -5.39%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.92%EV -6.72%E -3.84%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.60%E -1.000%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 19:35
SportsBet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -5.39%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.52%EV -6.72%E -3.84%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 19:39
Paddy Power4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -5.39%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -6.72%E -3.84%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.95%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-28 19:44
LiveScore Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -5.39%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.04%EV -9.38%E -5.52%K -13.41%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 19:44
Virgin Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -5.39%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -9.38%E -5.52%K -13.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.95%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-28 19:44
DraftKings4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -6.38%E -1.36%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.11%EV -4.05%E -2.25%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.55%EV -3.60%E -1.000%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-28 19:39
Winamax (DE)4.70I 21.28%NM 20.17%EV -6.38%E -1.36%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.86%EV -6.19%E -3.51%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.97%EV -2.26%E -0.619%K -0.853%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 19:54
NetBet (FR)4.70I 21.28%NM 19.76%EV -6.38%E -1.36%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.69%EV -7.78%E -4.50%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 19:54
Winamax (FR)4.65I 21.51%NM 20.07%EV -7.38%E -1.59%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.64%EV -7.25%E -4.17%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 19:55
Codere (IT)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.63%EV -8.38%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.01%EV -4.59%E -2.56%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -3.60%E -1.000%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 19:54
Unibet (UK)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -8.38%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.15%EV -5.12%E -2.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -3.60%E -1.000%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 19:54
William Hill4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -8.38%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -6.72%E -3.84%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -11.63%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-28 19:54
Mr Green (SE)4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -8.38%E -1.82%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -6.72%E -3.84%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -11.63%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-28 19:55
Betway4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -10.37%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.65%E -3.19%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -3.60%E -1.000%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-28 19:55
Betr (AU)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -10.37%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.52%EV -5.12%E -2.88%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 19:55
TAB4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -10.37%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -4.05%E -2.25%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.95%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 19:44
BoyleSports4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -10.37%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%EV -7.78%E -4.50%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -8.95%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-28 19:39
Fliff4.50I 22.22%NM 20.18%EV -10.37%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.11%EV -8.85%E -5.18%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -8.95%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-28 19:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.50I 22.22%NM 19.43%EV -10.37%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.36%EV -10.98%E -6.58%K -16.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.21%EV -16.99%E -5.48%K -8.09%G +0.000%14.4%2026-02-28 19:44
Betsson4.45I 22.47%NM 21.28%EV -11.36%E -2.55%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.04%EV -2.99%E -1.64%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.68%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 19:54
NordicBet4.45I 22.47%NM 21.28%EV -11.36%E -2.55%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.04%EV -2.99%E -1.64%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.68%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 19:54
Coral4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -12.36%E -2.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -2.45%E -1.34%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 19:14
Ladbrokes (UK)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -12.36%E -2.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -2.45%E -1.34%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 19:14
BetMGM4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -12.36%E -2.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -2.45%E -1.34%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 19:25
Neds4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -12.36%E -2.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -2.99%E -1.64%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:14
Ladbrokes (AU)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -12.36%E -2.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -2.99%E -1.64%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 19:14
Bet Right4.40I 22.73%NM 21.16%EV -12.36%E -2.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.61%EV -5.65%E -3.19%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 19:55
Marathon Bet4.30I 23.26%NM 22.34%EV -14.35%E -3.34%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.83%EV +0.744%E +0.394%K +0.836%G +0.006%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.83%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-28 19:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.77%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.5%2026-02-28 19:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.77%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.5%2026-02-28 19:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.77%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.5%2026-02-28 19:54
Matchbook5.30I 18.87%NM 18.77%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.5%2026-02-28 19:49
Smarkets5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.49%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-02-28 19:54