Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mallorca v Rayo Vallecano

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 14:15 UTC

Final: Mallorca 3–0 Rayo Vallecano

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mallorca (Local)

Prediction 39.38%2.54fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -0.940%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.73%39.48%39.38%40.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.392.392.4843.48%41.87%41.84%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rayo Vallecano (Visit)

Prediction 31.27%3.20fair odd
EV +3.80%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.64%
Growth +0.062%

assuming max odds 3.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.22%31.09%31.29%32.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.043.023.3237.04%32.85%33.06%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.35%3.41fair odd
EV +0.090%
Edge +0.026%
Kelly +0.037%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.23%29.43%29.32%30.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.183.203.4134.72%31.42%31.25%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mallorca (Local): 39.38%; Rayo Vallecano (Visit): 31.27%; Draw: 29.35%. For Rayo Vallecano (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.20. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.32, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.80%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.93%EV -6.66%E -2.81%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.22%EV +3.80%E +1.15%K +1.64%G +0.062%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.85%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-12 07:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.40%EV -2.33%E -0.940%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.07%EV +1.61%E +0.497%K +0.717%G +0.012%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.53%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-12 14:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.69%EV -3.51%E -1.43%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.92%EV +1.61%E +0.497%K +0.717%G +0.012%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.39%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-12 14:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.69%EV -3.51%E -1.43%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.92%EV +1.61%E +0.497%K +0.717%G +0.012%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.39%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-12 14:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.89%EV -4.30%E -1.77%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.82%EV +1.61%E +0.497%K +0.717%G +0.012%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.29%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 14:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV +0.051%E +0.016%K +0.023%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 13:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.77%EV -4.30%E -1.77%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.49%EV -0.887%E -0.280%K -0.409%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.74%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-12 14:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.77%EV -4.30%E -1.77%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.49%EV -0.887%E -0.280%K -0.409%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.74%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-12 14:10
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -1.51%E -0.480%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 14:10
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -1.51%E -0.480%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 14:10
Bally Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -1.51%E -0.480%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 14:10
betPARX🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -1.51%E -0.480%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 14:10
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.63%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -1.51%E -0.480%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 14:10
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.63%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -1.51%E -0.480%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 14:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.63%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -1.51%E -0.480%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 14:10
Pinnacle🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.41%EV -2.73%E -1.10%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 31.00%EV -1.83%E -0.581%K -0.853%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.59%EV -3.43%E -1.04%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.7%2026-04-12 14:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.73%EV -3.91%E -1.60%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.07%EV -2.45%E -0.785%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.20%EV -2.55%E -0.769%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 14:10
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -3.08%E -0.992%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 13:29
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -3.08%E -0.992%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -10.48%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 14:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -3.08%E -0.992%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 14:10
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -3.08%E -0.992%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 14:10
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.93%EV -3.51%E -1.43%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -4.64%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 13:59
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.40%EV -4.70%E -1.94%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.26%EV -4.64%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 14:10
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.40%EV -4.70%E -1.94%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.26%EV -4.64%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 14:10
Bovada🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.22%EV -4.70%E -1.94%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.12%EV -4.64%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 14:10
Everygame🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.42%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.02%EV -4.64%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 14:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -8.63%E -3.72%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -4.64%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -10.48%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-12 14:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -8.63%E -3.72%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -4.64%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -10.48%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-12 14:10
LeoVegas🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -8.63%E -3.72%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -4.64%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -10.48%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-12 14:10
1xBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.16%EV -2.33%E -0.940%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.37%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.48%EV +0.090%E +0.026%K +0.037%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-12 14:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -3.91%E -1.60%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.72%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.28%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-12 14:09
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -3.14%E -0.951%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 14:01
BetMGM🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.77%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -3.14%E -0.951%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 14:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-12 14:10
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.87%EV -6.66%E -2.81%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -3.14%E -0.951%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-12 14:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.66%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.47%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.87%EV -4.02%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 14:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -3.14%E -0.951%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 14:09
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 14:00
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.69%EV -6.66%E -2.81%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 14:00
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 13:30
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 14:10
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 14:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.18%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.88%EV -7.77%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 14:09
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.51%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.47%EV -7.77%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.51%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.47%EV -7.77%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 14:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -7.77%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 14:10
Fliff🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.66%EV -9.42%E -4.10%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -7.77%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 14:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.20%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.55%EV -8.70%E -2.98%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.25%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 14:09
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -3.51%E -1.43%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -9.33%E -3.22%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -3.14%E -0.951%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 14:09
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -9.33%E -3.22%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -3.14%E -0.951%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 14:01
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -9.33%E -3.22%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -3.14%E -0.951%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 14:00
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -9.33%E -3.22%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 14:01
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -9.33%E -3.22%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 14:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.33%E -3.22%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 14:10
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.33%E -3.22%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 14:10
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.42%E -4.10%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.33%E -3.22%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-12 14:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.73%EV -9.42%E -4.10%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.14%EV -15.58%E -5.77%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.13%EV -15.47%E -5.37%K -8.23%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-12 14:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.54I 39.37%NM 39.20%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.63%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17%0.4%2026-04-12 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.54I 39.37%NM 39.20%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.63%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17%0.4%2026-04-12 14:00
Matchbook2.54I 39.37%NM 39.20%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.63%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17%0.4%2026-04-12 14:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.39%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.8%2026-04-12 14:10
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 40.19%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45%2.0%2026-04-12 14:10
Smarkets2.50I 40.00%NM 39.21%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.63%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.16%2.0%2026-04-12 14:10