La escuela de los momios

Mallorca v Rayo Vallecano

Inicio: 2026-04-12 14:15 UTC

Final: Mallorca 3–0 Rayo Vallecano

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Mallorca (Local)

Predicción 39.38%2.54momio equitativo
EV -2.33%
Ventaja -0.940%
Kelly -1.58%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.48

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.73%39.48%39.38%40.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.392.392.4843.48%41.87%41.84%40.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Rayo Vallecano (Visitante)

Predicción 31.27%3.20momio equitativo
EV +3.80%
Ventaja +1.15%
Kelly +1.64%
Crecimiento +0.062%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.32

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.22%31.09%31.29%32.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.703.043.023.3237.04%32.85%33.06%30.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.35%3.41momio equitativo
EV +0.090%
Ventaja +0.026%
Kelly +0.037%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.41

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.23%29.43%29.32%30.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.183.203.4134.72%31.42%31.25%29.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet2.37I 42.19%NM 40.93%EV -6.66%E -2.81%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.22%EV +3.80%E +1.15%K +1.64%G +0.062%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.85%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-12 07:30
ATG (SE)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.40%EV -2.33%E -0.940%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.07%EV +1.61%E +0.497%K +0.717%G +0.012%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.53%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-12 14:10
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 39.69%EV -3.51%E -1.43%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.92%EV +1.61%E +0.497%K +0.717%G +0.012%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.39%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-12 14:10
Svenska Spel2.45I 40.82%NM 39.69%EV -3.51%E -1.43%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.92%EV +1.61%E +0.497%K +0.717%G +0.012%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.39%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-12 14:10
Unibet (NL)2.43I 41.15%NM 39.89%EV -4.30%E -1.77%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.82%EV +1.61%E +0.497%K +0.717%G +0.012%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.29%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 14:10
Tipico (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV +0.051%E +0.016%K +0.023%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 13:59
LowVig.ag2.43I 41.15%NM 39.77%EV -4.30%E -1.77%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.49%EV -0.887%E -0.280%K -0.409%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.74%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-12 14:10
BetOnline.ag2.43I 41.15%NM 39.77%EV -4.30%E -1.77%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.49%EV -0.887%E -0.280%K -0.409%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.74%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-12 14:10
Casumo2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -1.51%E -0.480%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 14:10
Grosvenor2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -1.51%E -0.480%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 14:10
Bally Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -1.51%E -0.480%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 14:10
betPARX2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -1.51%E -0.480%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 14:10
Unibet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.63%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -1.51%E -0.480%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 14:10
TABtouch2.38I 42.02%NM 39.63%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -1.51%E -0.480%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 14:10
LeoVegas (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.63%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -1.51%E -0.480%K -0.703%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 14:10
Pinnacle2.47I 40.49%NM 39.41%EV -2.73%E -1.10%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 31.00%EV -1.83%E -0.581%K -0.853%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.59%EV -3.43%E -1.04%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.7%2026-04-12 14:10
Marathon Bet2.44I 40.98%NM 39.73%EV -3.91%E -1.60%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.07%EV -2.45%E -0.785%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.20%EV -2.55%E -0.769%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 14:10
SportsBet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -3.08%E -0.992%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 13:29
BetRivers2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -3.08%E -0.992%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -10.48%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 14:04
PMU (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -3.08%E -0.992%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 14:10
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -3.08%E -0.992%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 14:10
DraftKings2.45I 40.82%NM 38.93%EV -3.51%E -1.43%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -4.64%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 13:59
NordicBet2.42I 41.32%NM 39.40%EV -4.70%E -1.94%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.26%EV -4.64%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 14:10
Betsson2.42I 41.32%NM 39.40%EV -4.70%E -1.94%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.26%EV -4.64%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 14:10
Bovada2.42I 41.32%NM 39.22%EV -4.70%E -1.94%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.12%EV -4.64%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.66%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 14:10
Everygame2.40I 41.67%NM 39.42%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.02%EV -4.64%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 14:09
Virgin Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -8.63%E -3.72%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -4.64%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -10.48%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-12 14:10
LiveScore Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -8.63%E -3.72%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -4.64%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -10.48%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-12 14:10
LeoVegas2.32I 43.10%NM 39.66%EV -8.63%E -3.72%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -4.64%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -10.48%E -3.43%K -5.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-12 14:10
1xBet2.48I 40.32%NM 39.16%EV -2.33%E -0.940%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.37%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.48%EV +0.090%E +0.026%K +0.037%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-12 14:00
Codere (IT)2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -3.91%E -1.60%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.72%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.28%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-12 14:09
theScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -3.14%E -0.951%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 14:01
BetMGM2.38I 42.02%NM 39.77%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -3.14%E -0.951%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 14:09
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-12 14:10
Coral2.37I 42.19%NM 39.87%EV -6.66%E -2.81%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -3.14%E -0.951%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-12 14:10
Betclic (FR)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.66%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.47%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.87%EV -4.02%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 14:10
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -3.14%E -0.951%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 14:09
Betway2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 14:00
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)2.37I 42.19%NM 39.69%EV -6.66%E -2.81%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 14:00
TAB2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 13:30
Sky Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 14:10
Paddy Power2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -6.20%E -2.07%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 14:10
Unibet (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.18%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.88%EV -7.77%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 14:09
Neds2.35I 42.55%NM 39.51%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.47%EV -7.77%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.51%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.47%EV -7.77%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -6.07%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 14:00
Winamax (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -7.77%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 14:10
Fliff2.30I 43.48%NM 39.66%EV -9.42%E -4.10%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -7.77%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-12 14:00
NetBet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.20%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.55%EV -8.70%E -2.98%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.25%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 14:09
Bet Victor2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -3.51%E -1.43%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -9.33%E -3.22%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -3.14%E -0.951%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 14:09
BetUS2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -9.33%E -3.22%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -3.14%E -0.951%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 14:01
Betr (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -9.33%E -3.22%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -3.14%E -0.951%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 14:00
Bet Right2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -7.45%E -3.17%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -9.33%E -3.22%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 14:01
PlayUp2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -5.48%E -2.28%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -9.33%E -3.22%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.54%E -2.39%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 14:10
Mr Green (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.33%E -3.22%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 14:10
William Hill2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.27%E -2.63%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.33%E -3.22%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 14:10
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -9.42%E -4.10%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.33%E -3.22%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.01%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-12 14:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 37.73%EV -9.42%E -4.10%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.14%EV -15.58%E -5.77%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.13%EV -15.47%E -5.37%K -8.23%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-12 14:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.54I 39.37%NM 39.20%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.63%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17%0.4%2026-04-12 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.54I 39.37%NM 39.20%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.63%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17%0.4%2026-04-12 14:00
Matchbook2.54I 39.37%NM 39.20%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.63%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17%0.4%2026-04-12 14:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.39%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.8%2026-04-12 14:10
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 40.19%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45%2.0%2026-04-12 14:10
Smarkets2.50I 40.00%NM 39.21%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.63%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.16%2.0%2026-04-12 14:10