L’École des cotes

Girona v Real Sociedad

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-14 18:00 UTC

Score final : Girona 1–1 Real Sociedad

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Girona (Local)

Prévision 48.10%2.08cote équitable
EV -2.85%
Avantage -1.41%
Kelly -2.79%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.02

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
46.62%48.06%48.05%49.66%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.831.951.952.0254.64%51.28%51.28%49.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Real Sociedad (Visiteur)

Prévision 26.13%3.83cote équitable
EV +0.596%
Avantage +0.155%
Kelly +0.209%
Croissance +0.001%

avec la cote maximale 3.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.14%26.25%26.20%28.43%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.613.603.8530.30%27.73%27.78%25.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.78%3.88cote équitable
EV -1.54%
Avantage -0.403%
Kelly -0.546%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.82

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.83%25.69%25.75%27.52%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.633.603.8232.26%27.54%27.78%26.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet (NL)1.96I 51.02%NM 49.39%EV -5.73%E -2.92%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.14%EV +0.596%E +0.155%K +0.209%G +0.001%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.47%EV -2.05%E -0.541%K -0.734%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-14 17:50
ATG (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 48.55%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.55%EV -0.711%E -0.187%K -0.254%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV -3.34%E -0.892%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-14 17:50
Coolbet2.00I 50.00%NM 48.55%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.55%EV -0.711%E -0.187%K -0.254%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV -3.34%E -0.892%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-14 17:10
Unibet (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 48.93%EV -5.25%E -2.67%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.37%EV -0.711%E -0.187%K -0.254%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.70%EV -3.34%E -0.892%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-14 17:50
Svenska Spel1.97I 50.76%NM 48.93%EV -5.25%E -2.67%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.37%EV -0.711%E -0.187%K -0.254%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.70%EV -3.34%E -0.892%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-14 17:50
Marathon Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 48.45%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.91%EV -2.28%E -0.609%K -0.832%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.64%EV -2.57%E -0.680%K -0.924%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-14 17:50
Pinnacle2.01I 49.75%NM 48.36%EV -3.33%E -1.66%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.20%EV -3.06%E -0.825%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.44%EV -1.54%E -0.403%K -0.546%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-14 17:45
1xBet2.01I 49.75%NM 48.29%EV -3.33%E -1.66%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.48%EV -1.80%E -0.472%K -0.639%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-14 17:50
BetOnline.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%EV -2.85%E -1.41%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-14 17:40
LowVig.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%EV -2.85%E -1.41%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-14 17:40
DraftKings2.00I 50.00%NM 47.88%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.88%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.24%EV -5.92%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-14 17:26
Grosvenor1.94I 51.55%NM 48.64%EV -6.69%E -3.45%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -5.92%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 17:50
Casumo1.94I 51.55%NM 48.64%EV -6.69%E -3.45%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -5.92%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 17:50
betPARX1.94I 51.55%NM 48.64%EV -6.69%E -3.45%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -5.92%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 17:50
Bally Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.64%EV -6.69%E -3.45%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -5.92%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 17:50
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.66%EV -8.62%E -4.54%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -2.05%E -0.541%K -0.734%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 17:55
BetMGM1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 17:15
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 17:15
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 17:16
Ladbrokes (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.47%EV -6.69%E -3.45%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-14 17:16
Neds1.94I 51.55%NM 48.47%EV -6.69%E -3.45%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-14 17:16
Codere (IT)1.99I 50.25%NM 48.01%EV -4.29%E -2.16%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.17%EV -4.63%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.82%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-14 17:55
Everygame1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -4.63%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.31%EV -3.34%E -0.892%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 17:50
Bovada1.96I 51.02%NM 48.39%EV -5.73%E -2.92%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -4.63%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.63%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 17:50
BetUS1.95I 51.28%NM 48.51%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.92%EV -4.63%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 17:35
NetBet (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.08%EV -9.58%E -5.10%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -4.63%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-14 17:50
betfred_uk2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-14 17:45
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-14 17:20
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.34%E -0.892%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 17:36
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.34%E -0.892%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 17:48
Unibet (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -4.77%E -2.41%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 17:45
theScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 17:45
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-14 17:30
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-14 17:30
TAB1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 17:45
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-14 17:50
Fliff1.87I 53.48%NM 48.87%EV -10.06%E -5.38%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -8.50%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-14 17:55
Betsson1.98I 50.51%NM 47.78%EV -4.77%E -2.41%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -7.24%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 17:45
NordicBet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.78%EV -4.77%E -2.41%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -7.24%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 17:45
Winamax (DE)1.92I 52.08%NM 48.71%EV -7.66%E -3.99%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -7.24%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -3.34%E -0.892%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-14 17:56
Virgin Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.17%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.24%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -8.50%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-14 17:50
LiveScore Bet1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -7.17%E -3.72%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -7.24%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -11.08%E -3.21%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-14 17:50
TABtouch1.91I 52.36%NM 47.99%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -7.24%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-14 17:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.99%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -7.24%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-14 17:50
Unibet1.91I 52.36%NM 47.99%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -7.24%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-14 17:50
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-14 17:45
Bet Right1.96I 51.02%NM 47.52%EV -5.73%E -2.92%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-14 17:45
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 17:40
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.50%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-14 17:45
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-14 17:26
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-14 17:25
BetRivers1.89I 52.91%NM 47.90%EV -9.10%E -4.81%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -11.08%E -3.21%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-14 17:50
PMU (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.03%EV -9.58%E -5.10%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -11.08%E -3.21%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-14 17:50
Winamax (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.44%EV -8.62%E -4.54%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -9.86%E -2.86%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-14 17:45
LeoVegas1.87I 53.48%NM 47.80%EV -10.06%E -5.38%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -9.86%E -2.86%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -12.36%E -3.64%K -5.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-14 17:50
Unibet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -11.16%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -2.05%E -0.541%K -0.734%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 17:36
Betclic (FR)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.73%EV -2.85%E -1.41%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.43%EV -13.25%E -3.99%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -2.05%E -0.541%K -0.734%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-14 17:54
BoyleSports1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -13.78%E -4.17%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-14 17:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 46.62%EV -11.98%E -6.55%K -14.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.85%EV -13.78%E -4.17%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.52%EV -20.10%E -6.48%K -9.57%G +0.000%17.2%2026-05-14 17:24
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.30%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.18%0.5%2026-05-14 17:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.30%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.18%0.5%2026-05-14 17:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.71%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.81%0.6%2026-05-14 17:56
Matchbook2.04I 49.02%NM 48.55%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%1.0%2026-05-14 17:50
Smarkets2.02I 49.50%NM 48.79%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%1.5%2026-05-14 17:55
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%3.1%2026-05-14 17:36