La escuela de los momios

Girona v Real Sociedad

Inicio: 2026-05-14 18:00 UTC

Final: Girona 1–1 Real Sociedad

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Girona (Local)

Predicción 48.10%2.08momio equitativo
EV -2.85%
Ventaja -1.41%
Kelly -2.79%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.02

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.62%48.06%48.05%49.66%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.831.951.952.0254.64%51.28%51.28%49.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Real Sociedad (Visitante)

Predicción 26.13%3.83momio equitativo
EV +0.596%
Ventaja +0.155%
Kelly +0.209%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.14%26.25%26.20%28.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.613.603.8530.30%27.73%27.78%25.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.78%3.88momio equitativo
EV -1.54%
Ventaja -0.403%
Kelly -0.546%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.82

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.83%25.69%25.75%27.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.633.603.8232.26%27.54%27.78%26.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)1.96I 51.02%NM 49.39%EV -5.73%E -2.92%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.14%EV +0.596%E +0.155%K +0.209%G +0.001%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.47%EV -2.05%E -0.541%K -0.734%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-14 17:50
ATG (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 48.55%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.55%EV -0.711%E -0.187%K -0.254%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV -3.34%E -0.892%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-14 17:50
Coolbet2.00I 50.00%NM 48.55%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.55%EV -0.711%E -0.187%K -0.254%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV -3.34%E -0.892%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-14 17:10
Unibet (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 48.93%EV -5.25%E -2.67%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.37%EV -0.711%E -0.187%K -0.254%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.70%EV -3.34%E -0.892%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-14 17:50
Svenska Spel1.97I 50.76%NM 48.93%EV -5.25%E -2.67%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.37%EV -0.711%E -0.187%K -0.254%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.70%EV -3.34%E -0.892%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-14 17:50
Marathon Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 48.45%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.91%EV -2.28%E -0.609%K -0.832%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.64%EV -2.57%E -0.680%K -0.924%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-14 17:50
Pinnacle2.01I 49.75%NM 48.36%EV -3.33%E -1.66%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.20%EV -3.06%E -0.825%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.44%EV -1.54%E -0.403%K -0.546%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-14 17:45
1xBet2.01I 49.75%NM 48.29%EV -3.33%E -1.66%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.48%EV -1.80%E -0.472%K -0.639%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-14 17:50
BetOnline.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%EV -2.85%E -1.41%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-14 17:40
LowVig.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%EV -2.85%E -1.41%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-14 17:40
DraftKings2.00I 50.00%NM 47.88%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.88%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.24%EV -5.92%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-14 17:26
Grosvenor1.94I 51.55%NM 48.64%EV -6.69%E -3.45%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -5.92%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 17:50
Casumo1.94I 51.55%NM 48.64%EV -6.69%E -3.45%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -5.92%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 17:50
betPARX1.94I 51.55%NM 48.64%EV -6.69%E -3.45%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -5.92%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 17:50
Bally Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.64%EV -6.69%E -3.45%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -5.92%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 17:50
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.66%EV -8.62%E -4.54%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -2.05%E -0.541%K -0.734%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 17:55
BetMGM1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 17:15
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 17:15
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 17:16
Ladbrokes (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.47%EV -6.69%E -3.45%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-14 17:16
Neds1.94I 51.55%NM 48.47%EV -6.69%E -3.45%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -3.32%E -0.898%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-14 17:16
Codere (IT)1.99I 50.25%NM 48.01%EV -4.29%E -2.16%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.17%EV -4.63%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.82%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-14 17:55
Everygame1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -4.63%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.31%EV -3.34%E -0.892%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-14 17:50
Bovada1.96I 51.02%NM 48.39%EV -5.73%E -2.92%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -4.63%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.63%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 17:50
BetUS1.95I 51.28%NM 48.51%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.92%EV -4.63%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 17:35
NetBet (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.08%EV -9.58%E -5.10%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -4.63%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-14 17:50
betfred_uk2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-14 17:45
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-14 17:20
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.34%E -0.892%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 17:36
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.34%E -0.892%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 17:48
Unibet (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -4.77%E -2.41%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 17:45
theScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-14 17:45
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-14 17:30
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-14 17:30
TAB1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 17:45
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-14 17:50
Fliff1.87I 53.48%NM 48.87%EV -10.06%E -5.38%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -8.50%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-14 17:55
Betsson1.98I 50.51%NM 47.78%EV -4.77%E -2.41%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -7.24%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 17:45
NordicBet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.78%EV -4.77%E -2.41%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -7.24%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 17:45
Winamax (DE)1.92I 52.08%NM 48.71%EV -7.66%E -3.99%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -7.24%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -3.34%E -0.892%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-14 17:56
Virgin Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.17%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.24%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -8.50%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-14 17:50
LiveScore Bet1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -7.17%E -3.72%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -7.24%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -11.08%E -3.21%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-14 17:50
TABtouch1.91I 52.36%NM 47.99%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -7.24%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-14 17:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.99%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -7.24%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-14 17:50
Unibet1.91I 52.36%NM 47.99%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -7.24%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-14 17:50
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-14 17:45
Bet Right1.96I 51.02%NM 47.52%EV -5.73%E -2.92%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-14 17:45
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 17:40
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.50%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-14 17:45
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-14 17:26
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.21%E -3.19%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-14 17:25
BetRivers1.89I 52.91%NM 47.90%EV -9.10%E -4.81%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -11.08%E -3.21%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-14 17:50
PMU (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.03%EV -9.58%E -5.10%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -11.08%E -3.21%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-14 17:50
Winamax (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.44%EV -8.62%E -4.54%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -9.86%E -2.86%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-14 17:45
LeoVegas1.87I 53.48%NM 47.80%EV -10.06%E -5.38%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -9.86%E -2.86%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -12.36%E -3.64%K -5.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-14 17:50
Unibet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -3.81%E -1.90%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -11.16%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -2.05%E -0.541%K -0.734%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-14 17:36
Betclic (FR)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.73%EV -2.85%E -1.41%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.43%EV -13.25%E -3.99%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -2.05%E -0.541%K -0.734%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-14 17:54
BoyleSports1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -13.78%E -4.17%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -7.21%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-14 17:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 46.62%EV -11.98%E -6.55%K -14.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.85%EV -13.78%E -4.17%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.52%EV -20.10%E -6.48%K -9.57%G +0.000%17.2%2026-05-14 17:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.30%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.18%0.5%2026-05-14 17:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.30%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.18%0.5%2026-05-14 17:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.71%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.81%0.6%2026-05-14 17:56
Matchbook2.04I 49.02%NM 48.55%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%1.0%2026-05-14 17:50
Smarkets2.02I 49.50%NM 48.79%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%1.5%2026-05-14 17:55
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%3.1%2026-05-14 17:36