Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Getafe v Athletic Bilbao

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Getafe (Local)

Prediction 28.35%3.53fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.299%
Kelly -0.419%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.76%28.41%28.38%30.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.313.303.4932.26%30.25%30.30%28.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Athletic Bilbao (Visit)

Prediction 38.14%2.62fair odd
EV -0.068%
Edge -0.026%
Kelly -0.042%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.05%38.17%38.13%39.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.482.482.6243.48%40.39%40.32%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.50%2.98fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.395%
Kelly -0.597%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.59%33.41%33.49%34.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.812.802.9540.00%35.61%35.71%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Getafe (Local): 28.35%; Athletic Bilbao (Visit): 38.14%; Draw: 33.50%. For Athletic Bilbao (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.622. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.620, with an expected value of -0.068%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.49I 28.65%NM 27.88%EV -1.04%E -0.299%K -0.419%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.46%EV -3.50%E -1.38%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.67%EV -3.17%E -1.10%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-05 11:50
Unibet (NL)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.16%EV -2.18%E -0.631%K -0.889%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.10%EV -2.74%E -1.07%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.74%EV -3.51%E -1.22%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-05 11:34
Coolbet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.10%EV -2.18%E -0.631%K -0.889%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.87%EV -2.36%E -0.920%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.02%EV -4.51%E -1.58%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-05 11:39
Marathon Bet🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 28.34%EV -3.03%E -0.885%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.01%EV -2.74%E -1.07%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.65%EV -3.51%E -1.22%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-05 11:54
ATG (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.67%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.49%EV -0.831%E -0.319%K -0.519%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.84%EV -3.51%E -1.22%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-05 11:34
Unibet (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.46%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.94%EV -2.74%E -1.07%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.60%EV -3.51%E -1.22%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-05 11:35
Svenska Spel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.46%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.94%EV -2.74%E -1.07%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.60%EV -3.51%E -1.22%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-05 11:35
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -6.55%E -2.67%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-05 11:29
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -6.55%E -2.67%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-05 11:30
Betclic (FR)🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 27.81%EV -4.45%E -1.32%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -9.60%E -4.05%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.65%EV -3.84%E -1.34%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-05 11:40
DraftKings🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.45%EV -5.01%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.64%E -1.86%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.44%EV -4.51%E -1.58%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-05 11:54
Betsson🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.43%EV -5.01%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.79%EV -3.88%E -1.54%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.77%EV -5.52%E -1.96%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 11:55
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.43%EV -5.01%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.79%EV -3.88%E -1.54%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.77%EV -5.52%E -1.96%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 11:55
Codere (IT)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.31%EV -5.01%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.40%EV -5.79%E -2.34%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -4.51%E -1.58%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-05 11:40
Grosvenor🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -5.01%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.89%EV -4.64%E -1.86%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.83%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-05 11:35
betPARX🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -5.01%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.89%EV -4.64%E -1.86%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.83%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-05 11:35
Casumo🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -5.01%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.89%EV -4.64%E -1.86%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.83%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-05 11:35
Bally Bet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -5.01%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.89%EV -4.64%E -1.86%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.83%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-05 11:35
Everygame🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -5.01%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.89%EV -4.64%E -1.86%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.83%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-05 11:55
Unibet (UK)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -5.01%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.55%E -2.67%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -4.51%E -1.58%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 11:40
LowVig.ag🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.30%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.48%EV -1.59%E -0.618%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.23%EV -2.50%E -0.861%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-05 11:19
BetOnline.ag🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.30%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.48%EV -1.59%E -0.618%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.23%EV -2.50%E -0.861%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-05 11:19
Sky Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.56%EV -6.55%E -2.67%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.81%EV -3.51%E -1.22%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 11:40
BetUS🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.56%EV -6.55%E -2.67%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.81%EV -3.51%E -1.22%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 11:55
SportsBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -4.64%E -1.86%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 11:40
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -4.64%E -1.86%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 11:40
Betway🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -4.64%E -1.86%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 11:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -5.41%E -2.18%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-05 11:35
TABtouch🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -5.41%E -2.18%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-05 11:34
Unibet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -5.41%E -2.18%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-05 11:34
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.64%E -1.86%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -7.87%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-05 11:39
Fanatics🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.64%E -1.86%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -7.87%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-05 11:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.55%E -2.67%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 11:29
Neds🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.55%E -2.67%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 11:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.55%E -2.67%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 11:29
BetMGM🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.55%E -2.67%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 11:30
Winamax (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -8.46%E -3.52%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -4.51%E -1.58%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 11:40
PMU (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.55%E -2.67%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.87%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-05 11:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.55%E -2.67%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.87%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-05 11:40
BetRivers🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.55%E -2.67%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.87%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-05 11:35
Unibet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -8.46%E -3.52%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-05 11:49
Bet Victor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.17%EV -7.85%E -2.41%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.92%EV -4.64%E -1.86%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.91%EV -3.51%E -1.22%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-05 11:53
TAB🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.85%E -2.41%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -4.64%E -1.86%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-05 11:50
Paddy Power🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -7.85%E -2.41%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -6.55%E -2.67%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -7.87%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-05 11:40
BoyleSports🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -7.85%E -2.41%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -8.46%E -3.52%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.87%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-05 11:10
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.85%E -2.41%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.77%EV -7.31%E -3.01%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.99%EV -9.54%E -3.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-05 11:34
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.85%E -2.41%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.77%EV -7.31%E -3.01%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.99%EV -9.54%E -3.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-05 11:35
LeoVegas🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.85%E -2.41%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.77%EV -7.31%E -3.01%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.99%EV -9.54%E -3.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-05 11:35
Winamax (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -7.85%E -2.41%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.03%EV -10.37%E -4.41%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -6.19%E -2.21%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-05 11:39
1xBet🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05%EV -8.42%E -2.61%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.05%EV -0.068%E -0.026%K -0.042%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.90%EV -1.16%E -0.395%K -0.597%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-05 11:54
theScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.83%EV -4.64%E -1.86%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -2.84%E -0.979%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-05 11:54
PlayUp🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -6.55%E -2.67%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.87%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-05 11:49
Fliff🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.42%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.89%EV -8.46%E -3.52%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.68%EV -9.54%E -3.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-05 11:54
NetBet (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.49%EV -10.37%E -4.41%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.25%EV -8.87%E -3.26%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-05 11:29
Betr (AU)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -10.68%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -4.64%E -1.86%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -4.51%E -1.58%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 11:55
Bet Right🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -10.68%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.92%EV -6.55%E -2.67%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.59%EV -4.51%E -1.58%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-05 11:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.87%EV -12.10%E -3.90%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.57%EV -12.27%E -5.34%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.56%EV -16.24%E -6.50%K -10.83%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-05 11:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.97%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.61%0.5%2026-04-05 11:55
Matchbook3.50I 28.57%NM 28.42%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.97%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.61%0.5%2026-04-05 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.36%0.6%2026-04-05 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 28.34%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.15%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.51%0.8%2026-04-05 11:55
Smarkets3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.91%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.52%1.5%2026-04-05 11:55
Kalshi3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.27%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%2.1%2026-04-05 11:55