L’École des cotes

Espanyol v Real Madrid

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-03 19:00 UTC

Score final : Espanyol 0–2 Real Madrid

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Espanyol (Local)

Prévision 22.10%4.52cote équitable
EV +6.08%
Avantage +1.27%
Kelly +1.60%
Croissance +0.097%

avec la cote maximale 4.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.19%22.07%22.13%24.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.754.324.304.8026.67%23.16%23.26%20.83%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Real Madrid (Visiteur)

Prévision 52.96%1.89cote équitable
EV -2.02%
Avantage -1.09%
Kelly -2.38%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
51.25%52.97%52.95%55.10%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.671.791.801.8559.88%55.97%55.56%54.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 24.94%4.01cote équitable
EV -0.245%
Avantage -0.061%
Kelly -0.082%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.68%24.96%24.93%26.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.733.754.0030.30%26.83%26.67%25.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet (NL)4.80I 20.83%NM 20.19%EV +6.08%E +1.27%K +1.60%G +0.097%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.25%EV -3.61%E -1.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.55%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-03 18:51
ATG (SE)4.75I 21.05%NM 20.54%EV +4.97%E +1.05%K +1.33%G +0.066%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.73%EV -2.02%E -1.09%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.73%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-03 18:51
Unibet (SE)4.75I 21.05%NM 20.42%EV +4.97%E +1.05%K +1.33%G +0.066%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.00%EV -3.08%E -1.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-03 18:51
Svenska Spel4.75I 21.05%NM 20.42%EV +4.97%E +1.05%K +1.33%G +0.066%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.00%EV -3.08%E -1.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-03 18:51
Grosvenor4.70I 21.28%NM 20.28%EV +3.87%E +0.823%K +1.05%G +0.040%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.25%EV -5.20%E -2.90%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 18:51
Casumo4.70I 21.28%NM 20.28%EV +3.87%E +0.823%K +1.05%G +0.040%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.25%EV -5.20%E -2.90%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 18:50
betPARX4.70I 21.28%NM 20.28%EV +3.87%E +0.823%K +1.05%G +0.040%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.25%EV -5.20%E -2.90%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 18:50
Bally Bet4.70I 21.28%NM 20.28%EV +3.87%E +0.823%K +1.05%G +0.040%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.25%EV -5.20%E -2.90%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 18:50
LowVig.ag4.65I 21.51%NM 20.78%EV +2.76%E +0.594%K +0.757%G +0.021%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.58%EV -6.26%E -3.54%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.64%EV -2.24%E -0.571%K -0.767%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-03 18:50
BetOnline.ag4.65I 21.51%NM 20.78%EV +2.76%E +0.594%K +0.757%G +0.021%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.58%EV -6.26%E -3.54%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.64%EV -2.24%E -0.571%K -0.767%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-03 18:51
Unibet (FR)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV +1.66%E +0.361%K +0.461%G +0.008%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.10%EV -8.91%E -5.18%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -2.74%E -0.702%K -0.944%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 18:50
TABtouch4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV +1.66%E +0.361%K +0.461%G +0.008%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -6.26%E -3.54%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -11.47%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 18:51
LeoVegas (SE)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV +1.66%E +0.361%K +0.461%G +0.008%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -6.26%E -3.54%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -11.47%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 18:51
Unibet4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV +1.66%E +0.361%K +0.461%G +0.008%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -6.26%E -3.54%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -11.47%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 18:50
BetRivers4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV +1.66%E +0.361%K +0.461%G +0.008%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -7.85%E -4.51%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 18:45
PMU (FR)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV +1.66%E +0.361%K +0.461%G +0.008%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -7.32%E -4.18%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 18:51
1xBet4.58I 21.83%NM 21.18%EV +1.22%E +0.266%K +0.340%G +0.004%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.89%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.93%EV -2.99%E -0.768%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-03 18:55
Coolbet4.54I 22.03%NM 21.39%EV +0.333%E +0.073%K +0.094%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.65%EV -4.14%E -2.29%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.96%EV -2.99%E -0.768%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 18:10
BetUS4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -0.551%E -0.122%K -0.157%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -6.26%E -3.54%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 18:20
LeoVegas4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -0.551%E -0.122%K -0.157%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.88%EV -7.85%E -4.51%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.67%EV -13.96%E -4.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 18:50
Marathon Bet4.45I 22.47%NM 21.76%EV -1.66%E -0.372%K -0.480%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.90%EV -3.08%E -1.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.34%EV -4.73%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 18:55
Pinnacle4.45I 22.47%NM 21.75%EV -1.66%E -0.372%K -0.480%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.18%EV -3.61%E -1.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.07%EV -3.74%E -0.968%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 18:55
DraftKings4.40I 22.73%NM 21.80%EV -2.76%E -0.627%K -0.812%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.29%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.91%EV -3.99%E -1.04%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 18:46
FanDuel4.40I 22.73%NM 21.58%EV -2.76%E -0.627%K -0.812%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 18:50
Betclic (FR)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%EV -2.76%E -0.627%K -0.812%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.85%EV -6.79%E -3.86%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.62%EV -3.99%E -1.04%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 18:54
Bet Victor4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -2.76%E -0.627%K -0.812%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -7.32%E -4.18%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 18:54
Virgin Bet4.35I 22.99%NM 21.21%EV -3.87%E -0.889%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%EV -6.79%E -3.86%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 18:51
LiveScore Bet4.35I 22.99%NM 21.21%EV -3.87%E -0.889%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%EV -6.79%E -3.86%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 18:50
SportsBet4.33I 23.09%NM 21.93%EV -4.31%E -0.995%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 18:51
Fanatics4.30I 23.26%NM 22.31%EV -4.97%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.43%EV -3.08%E -1.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.25%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-03 18:54
Bovada4.25I 23.53%NM 22.31%EV -6.08%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.40%EV -4.14%E -2.29%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-03 18:54
Betsson4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.08%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.08%EV -3.61%E -1.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 18:55
Tipico (DE)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.91%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.74%E -0.702%K -0.944%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 18:50
Codere (IT)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.60%EV -4.14%E -2.29%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -3.99%E -1.04%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 18:55
Unibet (UK)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 18:51
Everygame4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 18:55
Betway4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -3.08%E -1.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 18:55
Winamax (DE)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.30%EV -6.79%E -3.86%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -3.99%E -1.04%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 18:55
Sky Bet4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -7.32%E -4.18%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 18:50
Paddy Power4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.92%EV -7.32%E -4.18%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 18:54
NetBet (FR)4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.21%EV -8.38%E -4.84%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 18:51
NordicBet4.15I 24.10%NM 22.91%EV -8.29%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.39%EV -2.02%E -1.09%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 18:50
BetMGM4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.70%EV -3.08%E -1.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 18:50
Winamax (FR)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.30%EV -7.85%E -4.51%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.09%EV -3.99%E -1.04%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 18:55
Fliff4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.42%EV -7.85%E -4.51%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 18:55
betfred_uk4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -0.245%E -0.061%K -0.082%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 18:55
theScore Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -0.245%E -0.061%K -0.082%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 18:55
Coral4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -3.08%E -1.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -3.08%E -1.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 18:51
Ladbrokes (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -3.61%E -1.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 18:51
Neds4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -3.61%E -1.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 18:51
PlayUp4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-03 18:55
TAB4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.32%E -4.18%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 18:55
BoyleSports4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.38%E -4.84%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 18:45
Betr (AU)3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -13.81%E -3.54%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -2.74%E -0.702%K -0.944%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 18:55
William Hill3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -13.81%E -3.54%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 18:50
Mr Green (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -13.81%E -3.54%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 18:50
Bet Right3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -13.81%E -3.54%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -6.26%E -3.54%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -2.74%E -0.702%K -0.944%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.75I 26.67%NM 22.82%EV -17.13%E -4.57%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 51.25%EV -11.55%E -6.92%K -17.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.93%EV -17.70%E -5.36%K -7.70%G +0.000%16.8%2026-05-03 18:55
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook4.70I 21.28%NM 21.32%1.88I 53.19%NM 53.31%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.37%-0.2%2026-05-03 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.60I 21.74%NM 21.62%1.87I 53.48%NM 53.19%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.18%0.5%2026-05-03 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.60I 21.74%NM 21.62%1.87I 53.48%NM 53.19%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.18%0.5%2026-05-03 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.60I 21.74%NM 21.56%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.33%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11%0.8%2026-05-03 18:55
Smarkets4.60I 21.74%NM 21.55%1.87I 53.48%NM 53.02%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.42%0.9%2026-05-03 18:50
Kalshi4.35I 22.99%NM 22.53%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-05-03 18:50