La escuela de los momios

Espanyol v Real Madrid

Inicio: 2026-05-03 19:00 UTC

Final: Espanyol 0–2 Real Madrid

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Espanyol (Local)

Predicción 22.10%4.52momio equitativo
EV +6.08%
Ventaja +1.27%
Kelly +1.60%
Crecimiento +0.097%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.19%22.07%22.13%24.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.324.304.8026.67%23.16%23.26%20.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Real Madrid (Visitante)

Predicción 52.96%1.89momio equitativo
EV -2.02%
Ventaja -1.09%
Kelly -2.38%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.25%52.97%52.95%55.10%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.671.791.801.8559.88%55.97%55.56%54.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.94%4.01momio equitativo
EV -0.245%
Ventaja -0.061%
Kelly -0.082%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.68%24.96%24.93%26.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.733.754.0030.30%26.83%26.67%25.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)4.80I 20.83%NM 20.19%EV +6.08%E +1.27%K +1.60%G +0.097%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.25%EV -3.61%E -1.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.55%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-03 18:51
ATG (SE)4.75I 21.05%NM 20.54%EV +4.97%E +1.05%K +1.33%G +0.066%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.73%EV -2.02%E -1.09%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.73%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-03 18:51
Unibet (SE)4.75I 21.05%NM 20.42%EV +4.97%E +1.05%K +1.33%G +0.066%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.00%EV -3.08%E -1.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-03 18:51
Svenska Spel4.75I 21.05%NM 20.42%EV +4.97%E +1.05%K +1.33%G +0.066%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.00%EV -3.08%E -1.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%EV -8.97%E -2.46%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-03 18:51
Grosvenor4.70I 21.28%NM 20.28%EV +3.87%E +0.823%K +1.05%G +0.040%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.25%EV -5.20%E -2.90%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 18:51
Casumo4.70I 21.28%NM 20.28%EV +3.87%E +0.823%K +1.05%G +0.040%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.25%EV -5.20%E -2.90%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 18:50
betPARX4.70I 21.28%NM 20.28%EV +3.87%E +0.823%K +1.05%G +0.040%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.25%EV -5.20%E -2.90%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 18:50
Bally Bet4.70I 21.28%NM 20.28%EV +3.87%E +0.823%K +1.05%G +0.040%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.25%EV -5.20%E -2.90%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 18:50
LowVig.ag4.65I 21.51%NM 20.78%EV +2.76%E +0.594%K +0.757%G +0.021%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.58%EV -6.26%E -3.54%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.64%EV -2.24%E -0.571%K -0.767%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-03 18:50
BetOnline.ag4.65I 21.51%NM 20.78%EV +2.76%E +0.594%K +0.757%G +0.021%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.58%EV -6.26%E -3.54%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.64%EV -2.24%E -0.571%K -0.767%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-03 18:51
Unibet (FR)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV +1.66%E +0.361%K +0.461%G +0.008%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.10%EV -8.91%E -5.18%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -2.74%E -0.702%K -0.944%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 18:50
TABtouch4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV +1.66%E +0.361%K +0.461%G +0.008%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -6.26%E -3.54%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -11.47%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 18:51
LeoVegas (SE)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV +1.66%E +0.361%K +0.461%G +0.008%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -6.26%E -3.54%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -11.47%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 18:51
Unibet4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV +1.66%E +0.361%K +0.461%G +0.008%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.10%EV -6.26%E -3.54%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -11.47%E -3.23%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 18:50
BetRivers4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV +1.66%E +0.361%K +0.461%G +0.008%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -7.85%E -4.51%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 18:45
PMU (FR)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV +1.66%E +0.361%K +0.461%G +0.008%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -7.32%E -4.18%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 18:51
1xBet4.58I 21.83%NM 21.18%EV +1.22%E +0.266%K +0.340%G +0.004%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.89%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.93%EV -2.99%E -0.768%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-03 18:55
Coolbet4.54I 22.03%NM 21.39%EV +0.333%E +0.073%K +0.094%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.65%EV -4.14%E -2.29%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.96%EV -2.99%E -0.768%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 18:10
BetUS4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -0.551%E -0.122%K -0.157%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -6.26%E -3.54%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 18:20
LeoVegas4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -0.551%E -0.122%K -0.157%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.88%EV -7.85%E -4.51%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.67%EV -13.96%E -4.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 18:50
Marathon Bet4.45I 22.47%NM 21.76%EV -1.66%E -0.372%K -0.480%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.90%EV -3.08%E -1.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.34%EV -4.73%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 18:55
Pinnacle4.45I 22.47%NM 21.75%EV -1.66%E -0.372%K -0.480%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.18%EV -3.61%E -1.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.07%EV -3.74%E -0.968%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 18:55
DraftKings4.40I 22.73%NM 21.80%EV -2.76%E -0.627%K -0.812%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.29%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.91%EV -3.99%E -1.04%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 18:46
FanDuel4.40I 22.73%NM 21.58%EV -2.76%E -0.627%K -0.812%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 18:50
Betclic (FR)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%EV -2.76%E -0.627%K -0.812%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.85%EV -6.79%E -3.86%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.62%EV -3.99%E -1.04%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 18:54
Bet Victor4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -2.76%E -0.627%K -0.812%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -7.32%E -4.18%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 18:54
Virgin Bet4.35I 22.99%NM 21.21%EV -3.87%E -0.889%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%EV -6.79%E -3.86%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 18:51
LiveScore Bet4.35I 22.99%NM 21.21%EV -3.87%E -0.889%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%EV -6.79%E -3.86%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 18:50
SportsBet4.33I 23.09%NM 21.93%EV -4.31%E -0.995%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 18:51
Fanatics4.30I 23.26%NM 22.31%EV -4.97%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.43%EV -3.08%E -1.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.25%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-03 18:54
Bovada4.25I 23.53%NM 22.31%EV -6.08%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.40%EV -4.14%E -2.29%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-03 18:54
Betsson4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.08%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.08%EV -3.61%E -1.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 18:55
Tipico (DE)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.91%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.74%E -0.702%K -0.944%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 18:50
Codere (IT)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.60%EV -4.14%E -2.29%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -3.99%E -1.04%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 18:55
Unibet (UK)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 18:51
Everygame4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 18:55
Betway4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -3.08%E -1.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 18:55
Winamax (DE)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.30%EV -6.79%E -3.86%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -3.99%E -1.04%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 18:55
Sky Bet4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -7.32%E -4.18%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 18:50
Paddy Power4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.92%EV -7.32%E -4.18%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 18:54
NetBet (FR)4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.18%E -1.71%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.21%EV -8.38%E -4.84%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 18:51
NordicBet4.15I 24.10%NM 22.91%EV -8.29%E -2.00%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.39%EV -2.02%E -1.09%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 18:50
BetMGM4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.70%EV -3.08%E -1.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 18:50
Winamax (FR)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.30%EV -7.85%E -4.51%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.09%EV -3.99%E -1.04%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 18:55
Fliff4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -9.39%E -2.29%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.42%EV -7.85%E -4.51%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 18:55
betfred_uk4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -0.245%E -0.061%K -0.082%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 18:55
theScore Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -0.245%E -0.061%K -0.082%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 18:55
Coral4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -3.08%E -1.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -3.08%E -1.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 18:51
Ladbrokes (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -3.61%E -1.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 18:51
Neds4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -3.61%E -1.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 18:51
PlayUp4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -10.22%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-03 18:55
TAB4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.32%E -4.18%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -7.73%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 18:55
BoyleSports4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -11.60%E -2.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.38%E -4.84%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -6.48%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 18:45
Betr (AU)3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -13.81%E -3.54%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -2.74%E -0.702%K -0.944%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 18:55
William Hill3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -13.81%E -3.54%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 18:50
Mr Green (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -13.81%E -3.54%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -4.67%E -2.59%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -5.23%E -1.38%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 18:50
Bet Right3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -13.81%E -3.54%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -6.26%E -3.54%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -2.74%E -0.702%K -0.944%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.75I 26.67%NM 22.82%EV -17.13%E -4.57%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 51.25%EV -11.55%E -6.92%K -17.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.93%EV -17.70%E -5.36%K -7.70%G +0.000%16.8%2026-05-03 18:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook4.70I 21.28%NM 21.32%1.88I 53.19%NM 53.31%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.37%-0.2%2026-05-03 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.60I 21.74%NM 21.62%1.87I 53.48%NM 53.19%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.18%0.5%2026-05-03 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.60I 21.74%NM 21.62%1.87I 53.48%NM 53.19%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.18%0.5%2026-05-03 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.60I 21.74%NM 21.56%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.33%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11%0.8%2026-05-03 18:55
Smarkets4.60I 21.74%NM 21.55%1.87I 53.48%NM 53.02%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.42%0.9%2026-05-03 18:50
Kalshi4.35I 22.99%NM 22.53%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-05-03 18:50