La escuela de los momios

Elche CF v Valencia

Inicio: 2026-04-11 14:15 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Elche CF (Local)

Predicción 36.22%2.76momio equitativo
EV -0.387%
Ventaja -0.141%
Kelly -0.221%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.57%36.35%36.16%37.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.402.612.602.7541.67%38.31%38.46%36.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Valencia (Visitante)

Predicción 36.05%2.77momio equitativo
EV -0.871%
Ventaja -0.317%
Kelly -0.497%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.05%36.03%36.11%37.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.402.622.602.7541.67%38.23%38.46%36.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.73%3.61momio equitativo
EV -0.172%
Ventaja -0.048%
Kelly -0.066%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.15%27.62%27.73%28.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.403.403.6033.33%29.42%29.41%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 35.66%EV -0.387%E -0.141%K -0.221%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.32%EV -2.67%E -0.990%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.02%EV -2.94%E -0.841%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.0%2026-04-11 13:34
Unibet (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.08%EV -2.20%E -0.814%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.08%EV -2.67%E -0.990%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.84%EV -2.94%E -0.841%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-11 13:34
Svenska Spel2.70I 37.04%NM 36.08%EV -2.20%E -0.814%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.08%EV -2.67%E -0.990%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.84%EV -2.94%E -0.841%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-11 13:35
Unibet (NL)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.84%EV -2.20%E -0.814%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.51%EV -4.48%E -1.69%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.65%EV -2.94%E -0.841%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-11 13:34
Pinnacle2.69I 37.17%NM 36.20%EV -2.56%E -0.952%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.06%EV -2.67%E -0.990%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.74%EV -2.67%E -0.760%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.7%2026-04-11 14:00
BetOnline.ag2.68I 37.31%NM 36.06%EV -2.92%E -1.09%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.52%EV -1.95%E -0.718%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.42%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-11 13:55
LowVig.ag2.68I 37.31%NM 36.06%EV -2.92%E -1.09%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.52%EV -1.95%E -0.718%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.42%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-11 13:55
NordicBet2.68I 37.31%NM 35.71%EV -2.92%E -1.09%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.71%EV -3.39%E -1.27%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -7.10%E -2.12%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-11 14:09
Betsson2.68I 37.31%NM 35.71%EV -2.92%E -1.09%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.71%EV -3.39%E -1.27%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -7.10%E -2.12%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-11 14:09
1xBet2.67I 37.45%NM 36.36%EV -3.28%E -1.23%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.36%EV -3.75%E -1.41%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.27%EV -1.28%E -0.360%K -0.500%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-11 14:10
Marathon Bet2.67I 37.45%NM 36.29%EV -3.28%E -1.23%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 36.02%EV -3.03%E -1.13%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -2.94%E -0.841%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-11 13:40
Coolbet2.65I 37.74%NM 36.55%EV -4.01%E -1.51%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.22%EV -0.871%E -0.317%K -0.497%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.24%EV -4.89%E -1.42%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-11 13:44
Codere (IT)2.65I 37.74%NM 36.13%EV -4.01%E -1.51%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.13%EV -4.48%E -1.69%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.75%EV -4.33%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-11 13:39
DraftKings2.65I 37.74%NM 36.13%EV -4.01%E -1.51%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.13%EV -4.48%E -1.69%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.75%EV -4.33%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-11 13:19
BetUS2.65I 37.74%NM 35.98%EV -4.01%E -1.51%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.98%EV -4.48%E -1.69%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 13:39
betPARX2.65I 37.74%NM 35.88%EV -4.01%E -1.51%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.15%EV -5.20%E -1.98%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 13:35
Casumo2.65I 37.74%NM 35.88%EV -4.01%E -1.51%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.15%EV -5.20%E -1.98%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 13:35
Grosvenor2.65I 37.74%NM 35.88%EV -4.01%E -1.51%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.15%EV -5.20%E -1.98%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 13:35
Bally Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.88%EV -4.01%E -1.51%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.15%EV -5.20%E -1.98%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 13:35
Everygame2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -4.01%E -1.51%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 13:20
Betclic (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.57%EV -4.01%E -1.51%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.54%EV -7.00%E -2.71%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.89%EV -6.27%E -1.86%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 13:48
SportsBet2.62I 38.17%NM 36.09%EV -5.10%E -1.95%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.09%EV -5.56%E -2.12%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-11 13:39
Betway2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -5.10%E -1.95%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 14:09
Bet Victor2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -2.94%E -0.841%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-11 13:24
FanDuel2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -4.48%E -1.69%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 14:10
Winamax (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.34%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -8.08%E -3.17%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -1.56%E -0.439%K -0.611%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-11 13:39
Ladbrokes (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -5.56%E -2.12%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 13:35
Coral2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -5.56%E -2.12%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 13:34
Unibet (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 13:29
Unibet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 13:34
TABtouch2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 13:35
LeoVegas (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 13:34
Fanatics2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 13:40
BetRivers2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.10%E -2.12%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 13:34
Neds2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.10%E -2.12%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 13:34
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.10%E -2.12%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 13:34
Unibet (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -8.08%E -3.17%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 14:09
Paddy Power2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.49%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 13:40
Sky Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.49%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 13:40
TAB2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.49%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 14:10
William Hill2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.49%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 13:30
Mr Green (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.49%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 13:30
PMU (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -8.08%E -3.17%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -7.10%E -2.12%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 13:35
PlayUp2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -5.82%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -8.08%E -3.17%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -8.49%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 14:10
NetBet (FR)2.57I 38.91%NM 35.89%EV -6.91%E -2.69%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.17%EV -8.08%E -3.17%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -8.49%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-11 14:09
Tipico (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -2.67%E -0.990%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-11 13:54
BetMGM2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -4.48%E -1.69%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 14:09
Virgin Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -8.08%E -3.17%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.49%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 13:34
LeoVegas2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -8.08%E -3.17%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.49%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 13:35
LiveScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -7.63%E -2.99%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -8.08%E -3.17%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.49%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 13:34
theScore Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -9.44%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -0.172%E -0.048%K -0.066%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 13:25
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -9.44%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -2.94%E -0.841%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 13:20
Bet Right2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -9.44%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -4.33%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 13:25
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -9.44%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -9.88%E -3.95%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -2.94%E -0.841%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 13:30
Winamax (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.44%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.88%E -3.95%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -4.33%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.71%EV -13.07%E -5.44%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.71%EV -13.49%E -5.62%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -16.81%E -5.60%K -8.40%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-11 13:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.84%2.76I 36.23%NM 36.10%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-04-11 14:10
Matchbook2.78I 35.97%NM 35.84%2.76I 36.23%NM 36.10%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-04-11 14:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.76I 36.23%NM 36.00%2.76I 36.23%NM 36.00%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-04-11 14:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.27%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.74%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-04-11 14:10
Smarkets2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.43%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92%0.9%2026-04-11 14:10
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-04-11 13:25