Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.50
assuming max odds 3.10
assuming max odds 3.75
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Elche CF (Local): 40.02%; Atlético Madrid (Visit): 33.41%; Draw: 26.57%. For Atlético Madrid (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.99. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.57%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.29%EV -8.36%E -3.65%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.24%EV +3.57%E +1.15%K +1.70%G +0.061% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 26.46%EV -2.75%E -0.750%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-22 16:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 40.02%EV -2.76%E -1.14%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.42%EV -2.77%E -0.953%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 26.57%EV -2.75%E -0.750%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.24%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.30%EV -3.11%E -1.07%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.46%EV -3.01%E -0.825%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-22 16:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.24%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.30%EV -3.11%E -1.07%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.46%EV -3.01%E -0.825%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-22 16:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.41%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.84%EV -3.11%E -1.07%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -1.68%E -0.455%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.11%E -1.07%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.11%E -1.07%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 40.13%EV -2.76%E -1.14%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.86%EV -3.78%E -1.31%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.01%EV -0.355%E -0.095%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-04-22 16:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.43%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.69%EV -3.78%E -1.31%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.88%EV -0.355%E -0.095%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-22 16:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.43%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.69%EV -3.78%E -1.31%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.88%EV -0.355%E -0.095%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-22 16:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.43%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.69%EV -3.78%E -1.31%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.88%EV -0.355%E -0.095%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-22 16:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -4.76%E -2.00%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -3.78%E -1.31%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -9.66%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-22 16:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.64%EV -5.16%E -2.18%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.73%EV -4.11%E -1.43%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.66%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-22 16:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.67%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.60%EV -4.11%E -1.43%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.46%EV -1.56%E -0.633%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.94%EV -4.45%E -1.55%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.60%EV -3.01%E -0.825%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-22 16:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.06%EV -4.76%E -2.00%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.45%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -4.34%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-22 16:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.71%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.44%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.85%EV -5.67%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-22 16:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.56%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 16:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.01%EV -5.16%E -2.18%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.27%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -5.67%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 16:52 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.16%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 26.73%EV -6.20%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 16:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-22 16:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.27%EV -9.96%E -4.43%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -5.67%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 40.90%EV -9.16%E -4.04%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.37%EV -3.16%E -1.31%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.79%EV -5.78%E -2.05%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -5.67%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 16:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.37%EV -3.16%E -1.31%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.79%EV -5.78%E -2.05%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -5.67%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 16:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.82%EV -4.76%E -2.00%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.85%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -4.34%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 16:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.27%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.80%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -3.01%E -0.825%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.27%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.80%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -3.01%E -0.825%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-22 16:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.27%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.80%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -3.01%E -0.825%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-22 16:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.27%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.80%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -3.01%E -0.825%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-22 16:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.27%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.80%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -3.01%E -0.825%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-22 16:19 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 16:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.33%EV -6.76%E -2.90%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.34%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-22 16:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.33%EV -6.76%E -2.90%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.34%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-22 16:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.33%EV -6.76%E -2.90%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.34%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-22 16:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -9.66%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-22 16:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-22 16:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.66%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-22 16:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.66%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-22 16:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -4.76%E -2.00%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -4.34%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-22 16:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.19%EV -7.16%E -3.09%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.91%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -4.34%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-22 16:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.34%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-22 16:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -5.67%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -9.66%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-22 16:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -8.76%E -3.84%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -5.67%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-22 16:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -8.76%E -3.84%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -5.67%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-22 16:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -8.76%E -3.84%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -5.67%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-22 16:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.66%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-22 16:34 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -9.96%E -4.43%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.66%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.77%EV +0.043%E +0.017%K +0.029%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -8.45%E -3.09%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.85%EV -0.355%E -0.095%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.74%EV -4.76%E -2.00%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -9.79%E -3.63%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -0.355%E -0.095%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-22 16:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -9.96%E -4.43%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -9.79%E -3.63%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-22 16:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 37.93%EV -9.96%E -4.43%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.45%EV -12.13%E -4.61%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.63%EV -23.47%E -8.15%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 17.2% | 2026-04-22 16:49 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.86% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.21% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93% | 0.4% | 2026-04-22 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.77% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.36% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87% | 0.6% | 2026-04-22 16:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.77% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.36% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87% | 0.6% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.05% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.84% | 0.7% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.73% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.28% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.99% | 1.5% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.22% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.28% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50% | 2.0% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |