La escuela de los momios

Elche CF v Atlético Madrid

Inicio: 2026-04-22 17:00 UTC

Final: Elche CF 3–2 Atlético Madrid

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Elche CF (Local)

Predicción 40.02%2.50momio equitativo
EV +0.043%
Ventaja +0.017%
Kelly +0.029%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.93%40.16%40.05%42.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.252.352.352.5044.44%42.63%42.55%40.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Atlético Madrid (Visitante)

Predicción 33.41%2.99momio equitativo
EV +3.57%
Ventaja +1.15%
Kelly +1.70%
Crecimiento +0.061%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.24%33.34%33.42%35.38%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.632.822.803.1038.02%35.47%35.71%32.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.57%3.76momio equitativo
EV -0.355%
Ventaja -0.095%
Kelly -0.129%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.22%26.51%26.54%29.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.553.553.7534.72%28.14%28.17%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Marathon Bet2.29I 43.67%NM 42.29%EV -8.36%E -3.65%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.24%EV +3.57%E +1.15%K +1.70%G +0.061%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.46%EV -2.75%E -0.750%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 16:50
Pinnacle2.43I 41.15%NM 40.02%EV -2.76%E -1.14%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.42%EV -2.77%E -0.953%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.57%EV -2.75%E -0.750%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-22 16:54
BetOnline.ag2.40I 41.67%NM 40.24%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.30%EV -3.11%E -1.07%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.46%EV -3.01%E -0.825%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-22 16:30
LowVig.ag2.40I 41.67%NM 40.24%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.30%EV -3.11%E -1.07%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.46%EV -3.01%E -0.825%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-22 16:30
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.41%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.84%EV -3.11%E -1.07%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -1.68%E -0.455%K -0.624%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-22 16:54
Coral2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.11%E -1.07%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-22 16:54
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.11%E -1.07%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-22 16:54
ATG (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 40.13%EV -2.76%E -1.14%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.86%EV -3.78%E -1.31%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.01%EV -0.355%E -0.095%K -0.129%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-22 16:20
Unibet (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 40.43%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.69%EV -3.78%E -1.31%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.88%EV -0.355%E -0.095%K -0.129%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-22 16:19
Unibet (NL)2.40I 41.67%NM 40.43%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.69%EV -3.78%E -1.31%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.88%EV -0.355%E -0.095%K -0.129%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-22 16:20
Svenska Spel2.40I 41.67%NM 40.43%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.69%EV -3.78%E -1.31%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.88%EV -0.355%E -0.095%K -0.129%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-22 16:20
Betway2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -4.76%E -2.00%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -3.78%E -1.31%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -9.66%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 16:19
SportsBet2.37I 42.19%NM 39.64%EV -5.16%E -2.18%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.73%EV -4.11%E -1.43%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.66%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.67%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.60%EV -4.11%E -1.43%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 16:54
Coolbet2.46I 40.65%NM 39.46%EV -1.56%E -0.633%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.94%EV -4.45%E -1.55%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.60%EV -3.01%E -0.825%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-22 16:49
Codere (IT)2.38I 42.02%NM 40.06%EV -4.76%E -2.00%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.45%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -4.34%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 16:30
DraftKings2.40I 41.67%NM 39.71%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.44%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.85%EV -5.67%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 16:30
FanDuel2.40I 41.67%NM 39.56%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 16:49
Bovada2.37I 42.19%NM 40.01%EV -5.16%E -2.18%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.27%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -5.67%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-22 16:52
Betclic (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.16%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.11%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.73%EV -6.20%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 16:34
Tipico (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 16:50
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 16:54
Neds2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 16:54
Ladbrokes (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 16:54
Bet Right2.25I 44.44%NM 41.27%EV -9.96%E -4.43%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -5.67%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-22 16:54
NetBet (FR)2.27I 44.05%NM 40.90%EV -9.16%E -4.04%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.58%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-22 16:54
NordicBet2.42I 41.32%NM 39.37%EV -3.16%E -1.31%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.79%EV -5.78%E -2.05%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -5.67%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-22 16:25
Betsson2.42I 41.32%NM 39.37%EV -3.16%E -1.31%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.79%EV -5.78%E -2.05%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -5.67%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-22 16:30
Unibet (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.82%EV -4.76%E -2.00%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.85%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -4.34%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-22 16:30
Winamax (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.27%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.80%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -3.01%E -0.825%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 16:54
Grosvenor2.35I 42.55%NM 40.27%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.80%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -3.01%E -0.825%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 16:19
Casumo2.35I 42.55%NM 40.27%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.80%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -3.01%E -0.825%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 16:19
betPARX2.35I 42.55%NM 40.27%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.80%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -3.01%E -0.825%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 16:19
Bally Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.27%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.80%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -3.01%E -0.825%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 16:19
Everygame2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 16:44
Unibet2.33I 42.92%NM 40.33%EV -6.76%E -2.90%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.34%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 16:20
TABtouch2.33I 42.92%NM 40.33%EV -6.76%E -2.90%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.34%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 16:19
LeoVegas (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 40.33%EV -6.76%E -2.90%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -4.34%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 16:20
TAB2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -9.66%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-22 16:49
Sky Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-22 16:49
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.66%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 16:49
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.66%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 16:34
betfred_uk2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -4.76%E -2.00%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -4.34%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 16:54
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-22 16:44
BetRivers2.32I 43.10%NM 40.19%EV -7.16%E -3.09%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.91%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -4.34%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-22 16:19
PMU (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.34%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-22 16:20
Winamax (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -5.67%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-22 16:54
PlayUp2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -5.96%E -2.54%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -9.66%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-22 16:50
Virgin Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -8.76%E -3.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -5.67%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-22 16:20
LeoVegas2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -8.76%E -3.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -5.67%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-22 16:20
LiveScore Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -8.76%E -3.84%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.55%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -5.67%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-22 16:20
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.66%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-22 16:34
Fliff2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -9.96%E -4.43%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -8.12%E -2.95%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.66%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-22 16:54
1xBet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.77%EV +0.043%E +0.017%K +0.029%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -8.45%E -3.09%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.85%EV -0.355%E -0.095%K -0.129%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 16:54
Bet Victor2.38I 42.02%NM 39.74%EV -4.76%E -2.00%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -9.79%E -3.63%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -0.355%E -0.095%K -0.129%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 16:49
BoyleSports2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -9.96%E -4.43%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -9.79%E -3.63%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -7.00%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-22 16:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 37.93%EV -9.96%E -4.43%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.45%EV -12.13%E -4.61%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.63%EV -23.47%E -8.15%K -12.49%G +0.000%17.2%2026-04-22 16:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.86%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.21%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%0.4%2026-04-22 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.77%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.36%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%0.6%2026-04-22 16:55
Matchbook2.50I 40.00%NM 39.77%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.36%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%0.6%2026-04-22 16:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.48I 40.32%NM 40.05%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.84%0.7%2026-04-22 16:54
Smarkets2.48I 40.32%NM 39.73%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.28%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.99%1.5%2026-04-22 16:54
Kalshi2.50I 40.00%NM 39.22%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.28%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-04-22 16:54