Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celta Vigo v Mallorca

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celta Vigo (Local)

Prediction 53.60%1.87fair odd
EV +0.231%
Edge +0.124%
Kelly +0.266%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.59%53.62%53.63%54.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.771.771.8759.88%56.54%56.34%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mallorca (Visit)

Prediction 19.62%5.10fair odd
EV +3.02%
Edge +0.575%
Kelly +0.710%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.04%19.57%19.58%21.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.784.755.2522.73%20.90%21.05%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.78%3.73fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -0.545%
Kelly -0.750%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.86%26.81%26.79%28.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.483.503.6632.26%28.78%28.57%27.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Celta Vigo (Local): 53.60%; Mallorca (Visit): 19.62%; Draw: 26.78%. For Mallorca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.10. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.11%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.27%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.04%EV +3.02%E +0.575%K +0.710%G +0.021%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-22 16:53
LowVig.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.00%EV -4.06%E -2.27%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.77%EV +1.06%E +0.205%K +0.255%G +0.003%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.23%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-22 17:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.00%EV -4.06%E -2.27%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.77%EV +1.06%E +0.205%K +0.255%G +0.003%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.23%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-22 17:19
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.57%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.90%EV +0.861%E +0.167%K +0.208%G +0.002%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.54%EV -1.99%E -0.545%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-22 17:20
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.13%EV -4.06%E -2.27%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.13I 19.49%NM 18.89%EV +0.665%E +0.130%K +0.161%G +0.001%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.99%EV -3.87%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-22 17:20
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.40%EV -6.74%E -3.87%K -9.10%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.56%EV +0.076%E +0.015%K +0.019%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.04%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-22 16:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.15%EV -1.91%E -1.05%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.45%EV -1.89%E -0.377%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.8%2026-02-22 16:40
Coolbet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.67%EV -2.98%E -1.65%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.43%EV -1.89%E -0.377%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.91%EV -3.33%E -0.923%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.9%2026-02-22 16:39
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.75%EV -7.27%E -4.20%K -9.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -1.89%E -0.377%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.31%EV -3.60%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-22 16:55
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.05%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -1.89%E -0.377%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-22 16:49
Everygame🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.05%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -1.89%E -0.377%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-22 16:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.89%EV -7.81%E -4.54%K -10.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -1.89%E -0.377%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -3.60%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-22 16:59
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -7.27%E -4.20%K -9.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -1.89%E -0.377%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 17:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.82%EV -3.52%E -1.96%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.57%EV -2.87%E -0.579%K -0.726%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.61%EV -2.53%E -0.695%K -0.958%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-22 17:20
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.02%EV -5.66%E -3.22%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.21%EV -2.87%E -0.579%K -0.726%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-22 17:19
BetUS🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.02%EV -5.66%E -3.22%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.21%EV -2.87%E -0.579%K -0.726%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-22 16:58
ATG (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 52.19%EV +0.231%E +0.124%K +0.266%G +0.001%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.92%EV -3.85%E -0.785%K -0.987%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.89%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.5%2026-02-22 16:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.73%EV -1.91%E -1.05%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.69%EV -3.85%E -0.785%K -0.987%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.57%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-22 16:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.73%EV -1.91%E -1.05%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.69%EV -3.85%E -0.785%K -0.987%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.57%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-22 16:40
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.77%EV -5.13%E -2.90%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.42%EV -3.85%E -0.785%K -0.987%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.81%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-22 16:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.14%EV -8.88%E -5.22%K -12.69%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV -3.85%E -0.785%K -0.987%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-22 16:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.27%EV -4.06%E -2.27%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -5.81%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.86%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-22 16:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.83%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -5.81%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 17:20
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.24%EV -5.13%E -2.90%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 16:55
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.24%EV -5.13%E -2.90%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 17:19
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 16:40
Casumo🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 16:40
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 16:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 16:39
TABtouch🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 16:40
Bally Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 16:39
betPARX🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 16:39
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.52%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-22 17:19
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.82%EV -5.13%E -2.90%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-22 16:39
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.81%EV -7.27%E -4.20%K -9.96%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-22 17:19
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.19%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.14%EV -7.77%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.67%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-22 16:55
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.19%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.14%EV -7.77%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.67%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-22 16:55
LeoVegas🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.78%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.65%EV -7.77%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -10.30%E -3.07%K -4.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-22 16:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.56%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.57%EV -7.77%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -11.63%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-22 16:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.56%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.57%EV -7.77%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -11.63%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-22 16:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.92%EV -8.88%E -5.22%K -12.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -7.77%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.57%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-22 16:59
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.46%EV -8.34%E -4.88%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.66%EV -8.75%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.89%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-22 17:20
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.87%EV -3.52%E -1.96%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -3.60%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-22 16:40
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.87%EV -3.52%E -1.96%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -3.60%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-22 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.48%EV -3.52%E -1.96%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-22 16:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.63%EV -5.66%E -3.22%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.52%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -2.26%E -0.620%K -0.854%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 17:05
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.29%EV -5.13%E -2.90%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -3.60%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 16:39
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.63%EV -3.52%E -1.96%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -11.63%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-22 17:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.63%EV -3.52%E -1.96%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -11.63%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-22 17:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.62%EV -5.66%E -3.22%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-22 17:19
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.77%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-22 16:55
Fliff🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.34%EV -8.34%E -4.88%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.83%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 16:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -11.70%E -2.60%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-22 16:50
Neds🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -11.70%E -2.60%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-22 16:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.37%EV -7.81%E -4.54%K -10.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -11.70%E -2.60%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-22 17:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.36%EV -10.49%E -6.28%K -15.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.43%EV -11.70%E -2.60%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.21%EV -16.99%E -5.48%K -8.09%G +0.000%14.4%2026-02-22 16:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -3.52%E -1.96%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -13.66%E -3.10%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-22 16:49
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%EV -3.52%E -1.96%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -13.66%E -3.10%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.79I 55.87%NM 55.62%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.47%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.91%0.4%2026-02-22 17:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.45%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.8%2026-02-22 17:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.45%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.8%2026-02-22 17:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.80%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.17%0.8%2026-02-22 17:05
Smarkets1.79I 55.87%NM 55.07%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.92%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%1.4%2026-02-22 17:20