La escuela de los momios

Celta Vigo v Mallorca

Inicio: 2026-02-22 17:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Celta Vigo (Local)

Predicción 53.60%1.87momio equitativo
EV +0.231%
Ventaja +0.124%
Kelly +0.266%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.87

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.59%53.62%53.63%54.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.671.771.771.8759.88%56.54%56.34%53.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Mallorca (Visitante)

Predicción 19.62%5.10momio equitativo
EV +3.02%
Ventaja +0.575%
Kelly +0.710%
Crecimiento +0.021%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.04%19.57%19.58%21.27%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.404.784.755.2522.73%20.90%21.05%19.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.78%3.73momio equitativo
EV -1.99%
Ventaja -0.545%
Kelly -0.750%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.86%26.81%26.79%28.21%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.483.503.6632.26%28.78%28.57%27.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 54.11%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.27%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.04%EV +3.02%E +0.575%K +0.710%G +0.021%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-22 16:53
LowVig.ag1.79I 55.87%NM 54.00%EV -4.06%E -2.27%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.77%EV +1.06%E +0.205%K +0.255%G +0.003%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.23%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-22 17:20
BetOnline.ag1.79I 55.87%NM 54.00%EV -4.06%E -2.27%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.77%EV +1.06%E +0.205%K +0.255%G +0.003%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.23%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-22 17:19
Pinnacle1.78I 56.18%NM 54.57%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.90%EV +0.861%E +0.167%K +0.208%G +0.002%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.54%EV -1.99%E -0.545%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-22 17:20
1xBet1.79I 55.87%NM 54.13%EV -4.06%E -2.27%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.13I 19.49%NM 18.89%EV +0.665%E +0.130%K +0.161%G +0.001%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.99%EV -3.87%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-22 17:20
FanDuel1.74I 57.47%NM 54.40%EV -6.74%E -3.87%K -9.10%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.56%EV +0.076%E +0.015%K +0.019%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.04%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-22 16:55
Unibet (NL)1.83I 54.64%NM 53.15%EV -1.91%E -1.05%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.45%EV -1.89%E -0.377%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.8%2026-02-22 16:40
Coolbet1.81I 55.25%NM 53.67%EV -2.98%E -1.65%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.43%EV -1.89%E -0.377%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.91%EV -3.33%E -0.923%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.9%2026-02-22 16:39
Sky Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.75%EV -7.27%E -4.20%K -9.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -1.89%E -0.377%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.31%EV -3.60%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-22 16:55
SportsBet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.05%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -1.89%E -0.377%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-22 16:49
Everygame1.75I 57.14%NM 54.05%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -1.89%E -0.377%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-22 16:54
Tipico (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.89%EV -7.81%E -4.54%K -10.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -1.89%E -0.377%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -3.60%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-22 16:59
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -7.27%E -4.20%K -9.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -1.89%E -0.377%K -0.472%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 17:00
Marathon Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 53.82%EV -3.52%E -1.96%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.57%EV -2.87%E -0.579%K -0.726%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.61%EV -2.53%E -0.695%K -0.958%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-22 17:20
Bovada1.76I 56.82%NM 54.02%EV -5.66%E -3.22%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.21%EV -2.87%E -0.579%K -0.726%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-22 17:19
BetUS1.76I 56.82%NM 54.02%EV -5.66%E -3.22%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.21%EV -2.87%E -0.579%K -0.726%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-22 16:58
ATG (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 52.19%EV +0.231%E +0.124%K +0.266%G +0.001%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.92%EV -3.85%E -0.785%K -0.987%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.89%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.5%2026-02-22 16:39
Unibet (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.73%EV -1.91%E -1.05%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.69%EV -3.85%E -0.785%K -0.987%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.57%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-22 16:40
Svenska Spel1.83I 54.64%NM 52.73%EV -1.91%E -1.05%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.69%EV -3.85%E -0.785%K -0.987%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.57%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-22 16:40
DraftKings1.77I 56.50%NM 53.77%EV -5.13%E -2.90%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.42%EV -3.85%E -0.785%K -0.987%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.81%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-22 16:55
PMU (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.14%EV -8.88%E -5.22%K -12.69%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV -3.85%E -0.785%K -0.987%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-22 16:55
Codere (IT)1.79I 55.87%NM 53.27%EV -4.06%E -2.27%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -5.81%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.86%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-22 16:55
Unibet (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.83%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -5.81%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 17:20
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 53.24%EV -5.13%E -2.90%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 16:55
Betway1.77I 56.50%NM 53.24%EV -5.13%E -2.90%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 17:19
Unibet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 16:40
Casumo1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 16:40
Grosvenor1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 16:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 16:39
TABtouch1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 16:40
Bally Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 16:39
betPARX1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 16:39
TAB1.75I 57.14%NM 53.52%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-22 17:19
BetRivers1.77I 56.50%NM 52.82%EV -5.13%E -2.90%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-22 16:39
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80%NM 53.81%EV -7.27%E -4.20%K -9.96%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -6.79%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-22 17:19
Betsson1.78I 56.18%NM 53.19%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.14%EV -7.77%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.67%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-22 16:55
NordicBet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.19%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.14%EV -7.77%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.67%EV -4.94%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-22 16:55
LeoVegas1.75I 57.14%NM 52.78%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.65%EV -7.77%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -10.30%E -3.07%K -4.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-22 16:39
LiveScore Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 52.56%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.57%EV -7.77%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -11.63%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-22 16:39
Virgin Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 52.56%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.57%EV -7.77%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -11.63%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-22 16:40
NetBet (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.92%EV -8.88%E -5.22%K -12.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -7.77%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.57%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-22 16:59
Parions Sport (FR)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.46%EV -8.34%E -4.88%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.66%EV -8.75%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.89%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-22 17:20
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 52.87%EV -3.52%E -1.96%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -3.60%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-22 16:40
theScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.87%EV -3.52%E -1.96%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -3.60%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-22 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.48%EV -3.52%E -1.96%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-22 16:50
Winamax (DE)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.63%EV -5.66%E -3.22%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.52%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -2.26%E -0.620%K -0.854%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 17:05
BetMGM1.77I 56.50%NM 53.29%EV -5.13%E -2.90%K -6.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -3.60%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 16:39
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 51.63%EV -3.52%E -1.96%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -11.63%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-22 17:20
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.63%EV -3.52%E -1.96%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -11.63%E -3.53%K -5.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-22 17:20
Betclic (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 52.62%EV -5.66%E -3.22%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-22 17:19
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 52.77%EV -6.20%E -3.54%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-22 16:55
Fliff1.71I 58.48%NM 53.34%EV -8.34%E -4.88%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.83%EV -9.74%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 16:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -11.70%E -2.60%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-22 16:50
Neds1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -4.59%E -2.58%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -11.70%E -2.60%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -7.62%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-22 16:49
Winamax (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 53.37%EV -7.81%E -4.54%K -10.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -11.70%E -2.60%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-22 17:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 52.36%EV -10.49%E -6.28%K -15.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.43%EV -11.70%E -2.60%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.21%EV -16.99%E -5.48%K -8.09%G +0.000%14.4%2026-02-22 16:59
Betr (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -3.52%E -1.96%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -13.66%E -3.10%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.28%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-22 16:49
Bet Right1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%EV -3.52%E -1.96%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -13.66%E -3.10%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -8.96%E -2.63%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 16:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.79I 55.87%NM 55.62%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.47%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.91%0.4%2026-02-22 17:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.45%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.8%2026-02-22 17:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.45%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.8%2026-02-22 17:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.80%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.17%0.8%2026-02-22 17:05
Smarkets1.79I 55.87%NM 55.07%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.92%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%1.4%2026-02-22 17:20