La escuela de los momios

CA Osasuna v Atlético Madrid

Inicio: 2026-05-12 19:30 UTC

Final: CA Osasuna 1–2 Atlético Madrid

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

CA Osasuna (Local)

Predicción 36.02%2.78momio equitativo
EV +3.02%
Ventaja +1.06%
Kelly +1.62%
Crecimiento +0.049%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.86

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.92%36.00%36.05%37.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.622.622.8640.00%38.12%38.17%34.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Atlético Madrid (Visitante)

Predicción 36.35%2.75momio equitativo
EV -2.59%
Ventaja -0.965%
Kelly -1.54%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.57%36.45%36.31%38.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.572.602.6843.48%38.84%38.46%37.31%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.63%3.62momio equitativo
EV -0.532%
Ventaja -0.148%
Kelly -0.205%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.34%27.56%27.64%28.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.423.403.6033.33%29.21%29.41%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.86I 34.97%NM 33.92%EV +3.02%E +1.06%K +1.62%G +0.049%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.20%EV -7.67%E -3.02%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.88%EV -3.85%E -1.11%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-12 19:25
BetOnline.ag2.78I 35.97%NM 34.65%EV +0.139%E +0.050%K +0.078%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.22%EV -8.40%E -3.33%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.13%EV -1.91%E -0.539%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-12 19:25
LowVig.ag2.78I 35.97%NM 34.65%EV +0.139%E +0.050%K +0.078%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.22%EV -8.40%E -3.33%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.13%EV -1.91%E -0.539%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-12 19:25
ATG (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 35.46%EV -0.942%E -0.342%K -0.538%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.08%EV -4.40%E -1.67%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.47%EV -1.91%E -0.539%K -0.750%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-12 19:05
Coolbet2.75I 36.36%NM 35.42%EV -0.942%E -0.342%K -0.538%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.75%EV -3.68%E -1.39%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.83%EV -3.30%E -0.941%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-12 18:30
Pinnacle2.72I 36.76%NM 35.79%EV -2.02%E -0.743%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.32%EV -2.59%E -0.965%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.89%EV -3.57%E -1.02%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-12 19:26
Unibet (NL)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.88%EV -2.74%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.83%EV -4.40%E -1.67%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.29%EV -1.91%E -0.539%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-12 19:05
Unibet (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.88%EV -2.74%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.83%EV -4.40%E -1.67%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.29%EV -1.91%E -0.539%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-12 19:05
Svenska Spel2.70I 37.04%NM 35.88%EV -2.74%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.83%EV -4.40%E -1.67%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.29%EV -1.91%E -0.539%K -0.750%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-12 19:05
Tipico (DE)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.01%EV -2.74%E -1.02%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-12 19:25
Marathon Bet2.68I 37.31%NM 36.16%EV -3.46%E -1.29%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.16%EV -2.59%E -0.965%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -3.30%E -0.941%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-12 19:20
NordicBet2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%EV -3.46%E -1.29%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.24%EV -4.77%E -1.82%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -7.44%E -2.22%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-12 18:45
Betsson2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%EV -3.46%E -1.29%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.24%EV -4.77%E -1.82%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -7.44%E -2.22%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-12 18:45
Bovada2.66I 37.59%NM 35.74%EV -4.18%E -1.57%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.29%EV -4.77%E -1.82%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.96%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-12 19:24
Codere (IT)2.65I 37.74%NM 36.13%EV -4.54%E -1.71%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.13%EV -3.68%E -1.39%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.75%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-12 19:15
DraftKings2.65I 37.74%NM 35.88%EV -4.54%E -1.71%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.57%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-12 18:45
FanDuel2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -4.54%E -1.71%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-12 19:20
Everygame2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -4.54%E -1.71%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-12 19:16
Sky Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 36.19%EV -5.26%E -2.00%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.61%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -3.30%E -0.941%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-12 19:20
Grosvenor2.63I 38.02%NM 36.19%EV -5.26%E -2.00%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.61%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -3.30%E -0.941%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-12 19:05
Casumo2.63I 38.02%NM 36.19%EV -5.26%E -2.00%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.61%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -3.30%E -0.941%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-12 19:05
betPARX2.63I 38.02%NM 36.19%EV -5.26%E -2.00%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.61%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -3.30%E -0.941%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-12 19:06
Bally Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 36.19%EV -5.26%E -2.00%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.61%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -3.30%E -0.941%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-12 19:06
Bet Victor2.62I 38.17%NM 36.28%EV -5.62%E -2.15%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -3.30%E -0.941%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-12 19:19
Betway2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -5.62%E -2.15%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-12 18:30
SportsBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -5.62%E -2.15%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-12 19:20
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -5.62%E -2.15%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-12 19:19
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -5.62%E -2.15%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-12 19:26
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -5.62%E -2.15%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-12 19:25
betfred_uk2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.30%E -0.941%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-12 18:49
Unibet (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-12 19:10
Fanatics2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-12 19:00
TAB2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-12 19:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-12 18:45
BetMGM2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-12 19:00
Coral2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-12 18:41
LeoVegas (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-12 19:05
TABtouch2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-12 19:05
Unibet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-12 19:05
BetRivers2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-12 19:05
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.44%E -2.22%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-12 18:40
Neds2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.44%E -2.22%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-12 18:40
PlayUp2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-12 18:45
Betclic (FR)2.58I 38.76%NM 36.54%EV -7.07%E -2.74%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.57%EV -3.68%E -1.39%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.89%EV -6.61%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-12 19:15
theScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.15%E -3.19%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -0.532%E -0.148%K -0.205%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-12 19:05
Winamax (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -8.15%E -3.19%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -3.30%E -0.941%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-12 19:10
Betr (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -8.15%E -3.19%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -3.30%E -0.941%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-12 18:56
PMU (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -8.15%E -3.19%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-12 19:05
LeoVegas2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -8.15%E -3.19%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-12 19:05
Virgin Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -8.15%E -3.19%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-12 19:05
LiveScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -8.15%E -3.19%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-12 19:05
NetBet (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -8.15%E -3.19%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.34%EV -8.40%E -3.33%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-12 18:50
Fliff2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -8.15%E -3.19%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.53%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-12 19:25
Bet Right2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -9.95%E -3.98%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -3.30%E -0.941%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-12 19:05
Winamax (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.95%E -3.98%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-12 18:50
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -9.95%E -3.98%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-12 18:46
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 34.24%EV -9.95%E -3.98%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.22%EV -16.40%E -7.13%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -17.11%E -5.70%K -8.56%G +0.000%16.8%2026-05-12 18:53
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.76I 36.23%NM 36.05%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.31%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64%0.5%2026-05-12 19:26
Matchbook2.76I 36.23%NM 36.00%2.76I 36.23%NM 36.00%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-05-12 19:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.74%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.27%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-05-12 19:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.76I 36.23%NM 35.91%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.17%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92%0.9%2026-05-12 19:25
Smarkets2.74I 36.50%NM 36.08%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.08%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85%1.2%2026-05-12 19:25
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-05-12 18:45