Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barcelona v Celta Vigo

Kickoff: 2026-04-22 19:30 UTC

Final: Barcelona 1–0 Celta Vigo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barcelona (Local)

Prediction 77.00%1.30fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -8.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.19%76.81%77.06%78.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.231.221.2784.75%81.46%81.97%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Celta Vigo (Visit)

Prediction 9.26%10.79fair odd
EV +8.85%
Edge +0.754%
Kelly +0.824%
Growth +0.073%

assuming max odds 11.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.28%9.35%9.25%11.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.2510.2210.5011.7512.12%9.78%9.52%8.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.74%7.28fair odd
EV +3.02%
Edge +0.403%
Kelly +0.465%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.90%13.84%13.69%17.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.797.007.5020.00%14.73%14.29%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barcelona (Local): 77.00%; Celta Vigo (Visit): 9.26%; Draw: 13.74%. For Celta Vigo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.79. 21 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.85%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 78.13%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%11.75I 8.51%NM 8.31%EV +8.85%E +0.754%K +0.824%G +0.073%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.56%EV -1.10%E -0.153%K -0.177%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-22 19:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.68%EV -5.29%E -4.30%K -23.00%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.42%EV +6.54%E +0.569%K +0.623%G +0.041%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.90%EV +3.02%E +0.403%K +0.465%G +0.014%3.3%2026-04-22 19:25
NordicBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.83%EV -4.52%E -3.65%K -18.83%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.28%EV +6.54%E +0.569%K +0.623%G +0.041%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -12.09%E -1.89%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-22 18:24
Betsson🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.83%EV -4.52%E -3.65%K -18.83%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.28%EV +6.54%E +0.569%K +0.623%G +0.041%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -12.09%E -1.89%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-22 18:23
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 77.97%EV -2.98%E -2.37%K -11.46%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.93%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.50I 13.33%NM 13.10%EV +3.02%E +0.403%K +0.465%G +0.014%1.8%2026-04-22 19:25
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.89%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.85%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.34I 13.62%NM 13.26%EV +0.823%E +0.112%K +0.130%G +0.001%2.7%2026-04-22 19:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 78.24%EV -4.52%E -3.65%K -18.83%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.82%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.94%EV +3.02%E +0.403%K +0.465%G +0.014%3.1%2026-04-22 19:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 78.24%EV -4.52%E -3.65%K -18.83%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.82%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.94%EV +3.02%E +0.403%K +0.465%G +0.014%3.1%2026-04-22 19:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 19:15
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 19:25
Grosvenor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 19:25
Casumo🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 19:25
betPARX🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 19:25
Bally Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 19:25
Unibet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.95%EV -6.83%E -5.64%K -32.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 19:25
TABtouch🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.95%EV -6.83%E -5.64%K -32.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.95%EV -6.83%E -5.64%K -32.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 19:25
theScore Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -10.72%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 19:10
BetRivers🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.56%EV -6.83%E -5.64%K -32.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -7.28%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-22 19:05
TAB🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -17.58%E -2.93%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-22 19:25
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -17.58%E -2.93%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-22 19:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.49%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%10.70I 9.35%NM 9.05%EV -0.872%E -0.082%K -0.090%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.45%EV -1.10%E -0.153%K -0.177%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 18:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.49%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%10.70I 9.35%NM 9.05%EV -0.872%E -0.082%K -0.090%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.45%EV -1.10%E -0.153%K -0.177%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 18:40
Coolbet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.45%EV -2.21%E -1.74%K -8.19%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.25%EV -2.73%E -0.260%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.79I 14.73%NM 14.30%EV -6.73%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-22 17:34
BetUS🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.28%EV -4.52%E -3.65%K -18.83%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13%EV -2.73%E -0.260%K -0.287%G +0.000%7.05I 14.18%NM 13.59%EV -3.16%E -0.448%K -0.522%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-22 18:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.00%EV -2.73%E -0.260%K -0.287%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-22 19:00
SportsBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.69%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -2.73%E -0.260%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -10.72%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 19:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.40%EV -7.60%E -6.33%K -38.00%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -2.73%E -0.260%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.76%EV -7.28%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-22 19:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -8.37%E -7.03%K -44.05%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.83%EV -2.73%E -0.260%K -0.287%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-22 19:25
LeoVegas🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.69%EV -9.14%E -7.75%K -50.78%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.73%EV -2.73%E -0.260%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.58%EV -7.28%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-22 19:25
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%10.41I 9.61%NM 9.25%EV -3.56%E -0.342%K -0.378%G +0.000%7.04I 14.20%NM 13.68%EV -3.30%E -0.468%K -0.546%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-22 19:25
Everygame🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.33%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV -7.36%E -0.736%K -0.817%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.13%EV -7.28%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-22 13:18
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.86%EV -4.52%E -3.65%K -18.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.53%EV -7.36%E -0.736%K -0.817%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 18:24
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -7.36%E -0.736%K -0.817%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -10.72%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-22 18:31
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -7.36%E -0.736%K -0.817%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 19:05
Fanatics🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -7.36%E -0.736%K -0.817%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -5.29%E -4.30%K -23.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -7.36%E -0.736%K -0.817%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -14.15%E -2.26%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-22 19:10
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.43%EV -7.60%E -6.33%K -38.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -7.36%E -0.736%K -0.817%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-22 18:19
Bet Right🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -5.29%E -4.30%K -23.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -7.36%E -0.736%K -0.817%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -17.58%E -2.93%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-22 19:10
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -7.60%E -6.33%K -38.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -7.36%E -0.736%K -0.817%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -10.72%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-22 18:19
Codere (IT)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.26%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.73%EV -9.21%E -0.940%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.02%EV -6.59%E -0.970%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 19:25
Bovada🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.28%EV -4.52%E -3.65%K -18.83%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.70%EV -9.67%E -0.992%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -7.28%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 19:01
Fliff🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 76.95%EV -8.37%E -7.03%K -44.05%G +0.000%9.65I 10.36%NM 9.49%EV -10.60%E -1.10%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.57%EV -7.28%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-22 19:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.05%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.89%EV -11.99%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.06%EV -1.10%E -0.153%K -0.177%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 18:35
FanDuel🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.98%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -11.99%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -10.72%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 19:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.13%EV -6.83%E -5.64%K -32.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -11.99%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.72%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 19:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.13%EV -6.83%E -5.64%K -32.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -11.99%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.72%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 19:25
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -11.99%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -17.58%E -2.93%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-22 19:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -11.99%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -17.58%E -2.93%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-22 19:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 73.19%EV -7.60%E -6.33%K -38.00%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.24%EV -11.99%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -31.32%E -6.26%K -7.83%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-22 19:14
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.61%EV -2.21%E -1.74%K -8.19%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.67%EV -16.62%E -1.85%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.72%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-22 19:05
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.90%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -16.62%E -1.85%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.55%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-22 19:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.44%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -21.25%E -2.50%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-22 18:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.08%EV -5.29%E -4.30%K -23.00%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -21.25%E -2.50%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.91%EV -0.414%E -0.057%K -0.066%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 19:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.88%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -21.25%E -2.50%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.23%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-22 13:04
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.25%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -21.25%E -2.50%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -17.58%E -2.93%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-22 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.89%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.35%EV -23.57%E -2.86%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.77%EV -6.59%E -0.970%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-22 18:45
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.89%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.35%EV -23.57%E -2.86%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.77%EV -6.59%E -0.970%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-22 18:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.30%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.84%0.3%2026-04-22 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.27I 78.74%NM 78.28%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.28%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.43%0.6%2026-04-22 19:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.27I 78.74%NM 78.28%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.28%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.43%0.6%2026-04-22 19:25
Kalshi1.27I 78.74%NM 78.16%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.93%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.91%0.7%2026-04-22 18:20
Matchbook1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.25%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.76%1.0%2026-04-22 19:25
Smarkets1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.20%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67%1.6%2026-04-22 19:25