La escuela de los momios

Barcelona v Celta Vigo

Inicio: 2026-04-22 19:30 UTC

Final: Barcelona 1–0 Celta Vigo

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Barcelona (Local)

Predicción 77.00%1.30momio equitativo
EV -2.21%
Ventaja -1.74%
Kelly -8.19%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.27

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
73.19%76.81%77.06%78.68%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.181.231.221.2784.75%81.46%81.97%78.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Celta Vigo (Visitante)

Predicción 9.26%10.79momio equitativo
EV +8.85%
Ventaja +0.754%
Kelly +0.824%
Crecimiento +0.073%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 11.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.28%9.35%9.25%11.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
8.2510.2210.5011.7512.12%9.78%9.52%8.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 13.74%7.28momio equitativo
EV +3.02%
Ventaja +0.403%
Kelly +0.465%
Crecimiento +0.014%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.90%13.84%13.69%17.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.006.797.007.5020.00%14.73%14.29%13.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Marathon Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 78.13%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%11.75I 8.51%NM 8.31%EV +8.85%E +0.754%K +0.824%G +0.073%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.56%EV -1.10%E -0.153%K -0.177%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-22 19:20
Unibet (NL)1.23I 81.30%NM 78.68%EV -5.29%E -4.30%K -23.00%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.42%EV +6.54%E +0.569%K +0.623%G +0.041%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.90%EV +3.02%E +0.403%K +0.465%G +0.014%3.3%2026-04-22 19:25
NordicBet1.24I 80.65%NM 76.83%EV -4.52%E -3.65%K -18.83%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.28%EV +6.54%E +0.569%K +0.623%G +0.041%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -12.09%E -1.89%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-22 18:24
Betsson1.24I 80.65%NM 76.83%EV -4.52%E -3.65%K -18.83%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.28%EV +6.54%E +0.569%K +0.623%G +0.041%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -12.09%E -1.89%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-22 18:23
ATG (SE)1.26I 79.37%NM 77.97%EV -2.98%E -2.37%K -11.46%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.93%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.50I 13.33%NM 13.10%EV +3.02%E +0.403%K +0.465%G +0.014%1.8%2026-04-22 19:25
1xBet1.25I 80.00%NM 77.89%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.85%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.34I 13.62%NM 13.26%EV +0.823%E +0.112%K +0.130%G +0.001%2.7%2026-04-22 19:15
Unibet (SE)1.24I 80.65%NM 78.24%EV -4.52%E -3.65%K -18.83%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.82%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.94%EV +3.02%E +0.403%K +0.465%G +0.014%3.1%2026-04-22 19:25
Svenska Spel1.24I 80.65%NM 78.24%EV -4.52%E -3.65%K -18.83%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.82%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.94%EV +3.02%E +0.403%K +0.465%G +0.014%3.1%2026-04-22 19:25
Unibet (FR)1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 19:15
Bet Victor1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 19:25
Grosvenor1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 19:25
Casumo1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 19:25
betPARX1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 19:25
Bally Bet1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 19:25
Unibet1.21I 82.64%NM 77.95%EV -6.83%E -5.64%K -32.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 19:25
TABtouch1.21I 82.64%NM 77.95%EV -6.83%E -5.64%K -32.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)1.21I 82.64%NM 77.95%EV -6.83%E -5.64%K -32.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 19:25
theScore Bet1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -10.72%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 19:10
BetRivers1.21I 82.64%NM 77.56%EV -6.83%E -5.64%K -32.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -7.28%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-22 19:05
TAB1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -17.58%E -2.93%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-22 19:25
PlayUp1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +1.91%E +0.173%K +0.191%G +0.004%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -17.58%E -2.93%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-22 19:20
LowVig.ag1.25I 80.00%NM 77.49%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%10.70I 9.35%NM 9.05%EV -0.872%E -0.082%K -0.090%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.45%EV -1.10%E -0.153%K -0.177%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 18:39
BetOnline.ag1.25I 80.00%NM 77.49%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%10.70I 9.35%NM 9.05%EV -0.872%E -0.082%K -0.090%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.45%EV -1.10%E -0.153%K -0.177%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 18:40
Coolbet1.27I 78.74%NM 76.45%EV -2.21%E -1.74%K -8.19%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.25%EV -2.73%E -0.260%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.79I 14.73%NM 14.30%EV -6.73%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-22 17:34
BetUS1.24I 80.65%NM 77.28%EV -4.52%E -3.65%K -18.83%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13%EV -2.73%E -0.260%K -0.287%G +0.000%7.05I 14.18%NM 13.59%EV -3.16%E -0.448%K -0.522%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-22 18:44
Betclic (FR)1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.00%EV -2.73%E -0.260%K -0.287%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-22 19:00
SportsBet1.22I 81.97%NM 76.69%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -2.73%E -0.260%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -10.72%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 19:25
NetBet (FR)1.20I 83.33%NM 77.40%EV -7.60%E -6.33%K -38.00%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -2.73%E -0.260%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.76%EV -7.28%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-22 19:05
PMU (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -8.37%E -7.03%K -44.05%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.83%EV -2.73%E -0.260%K -0.287%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-22 19:25
LeoVegas1.18I 84.75%NM 77.69%EV -9.14%E -7.75%K -50.78%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.73%EV -2.73%E -0.260%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.58%EV -7.28%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-22 19:25
Pinnacle1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%10.41I 9.61%NM 9.25%EV -3.56%E -0.342%K -0.378%G +0.000%7.04I 14.20%NM 13.68%EV -3.30%E -0.468%K -0.546%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-22 19:25
Everygame1.25I 80.00%NM 76.33%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV -7.36%E -0.736%K -0.817%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.13%EV -7.28%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-22 13:18
DraftKings1.24I 80.65%NM 76.86%EV -4.52%E -3.65%K -18.83%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.53%EV -7.36%E -0.736%K -0.817%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 18:24
betfred_uk1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -7.36%E -0.736%K -0.817%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -10.72%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-22 18:31
Betway1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -7.36%E -0.736%K -0.817%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 19:05
Fanatics1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -7.36%E -0.736%K -0.817%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 19:00
Betr (AU)1.23I 81.30%NM 75.77%EV -5.29%E -4.30%K -23.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -7.36%E -0.736%K -0.817%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -14.15%E -2.26%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-22 19:10
Sky Bet1.20I 83.33%NM 77.43%EV -7.60%E -6.33%K -38.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -7.36%E -0.736%K -0.817%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-22 18:19
Bet Right1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -5.29%E -4.30%K -23.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -7.36%E -0.736%K -0.817%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -17.58%E -2.93%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-22 19:10
Paddy Power1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -7.60%E -6.33%K -38.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -7.36%E -0.736%K -0.817%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -10.72%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-22 18:19
Codere (IT)1.25I 80.00%NM 76.26%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.73%EV -9.21%E -0.940%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.02%EV -6.59%E -0.970%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 19:25
Bovada1.24I 80.65%NM 76.28%EV -4.52%E -3.65%K -18.83%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.70%EV -9.67%E -0.992%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -7.28%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 19:01
Fliff1.19I 84.03%NM 76.95%EV -8.37%E -7.03%K -44.05%G +0.000%9.65I 10.36%NM 9.49%EV -10.60%E -1.10%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.57%EV -7.28%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-22 19:25
Tipico (DE)1.22I 81.97%NM 77.05%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.89%EV -11.99%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.06%EV -1.10%E -0.153%K -0.177%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 18:35
FanDuel1.22I 81.97%NM 75.98%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -11.99%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -10.72%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 19:25
Virgin Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 76.13%EV -6.83%E -5.64%K -32.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -11.99%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.72%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 19:25
LiveScore Bet1.21I 82.64%NM 76.13%EV -6.83%E -5.64%K -32.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -11.99%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -10.72%E -1.65%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 19:25
William Hill1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -11.99%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -17.58%E -2.93%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-22 19:25
Mr Green (SE)1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -11.99%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -17.58%E -2.93%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-22 19:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.20I 83.33%NM 73.19%EV -7.60%E -6.33%K -38.00%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.24%EV -11.99%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -31.32%E -6.26%K -7.83%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-22 19:14
BetMGM1.27I 78.74%NM 75.61%EV -2.21%E -1.74%K -8.19%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.67%EV -16.62%E -1.85%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.72%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-22 19:05
Coral1.25I 80.00%NM 75.90%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -16.62%E -1.85%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.55%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-22 19:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.44%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -21.25%E -2.50%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-22 18:45
Winamax (DE)1.23I 81.30%NM 76.08%EV -5.29%E -4.30%K -23.00%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -21.25%E -2.50%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.91%EV -0.414%E -0.057%K -0.066%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 19:25
Winamax (FR)1.22I 81.97%NM 75.88%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -21.25%E -2.50%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.23%EV -3.85%E -0.550%K -0.641%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-22 13:04
BoyleSports1.22I 81.97%NM 74.25%EV -6.06%E -4.97%K -27.55%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -21.25%E -2.50%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -17.58%E -2.93%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-22 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.89%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.35%EV -23.57%E -2.86%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.77%EV -6.59%E -0.970%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-22 18:45
Neds1.25I 80.00%NM 74.89%EV -3.75%E -3.00%K -15.00%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.35%EV -23.57%E -2.86%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.77%EV -6.59%E -0.970%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-22 18:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.30%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.84%0.3%2026-04-22 19:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.27I 78.74%NM 78.28%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.28%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.43%0.6%2026-04-22 19:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.27I 78.74%NM 78.28%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.28%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.43%0.6%2026-04-22 19:25
Kalshi1.27I 78.74%NM 78.16%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.93%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.91%0.7%2026-04-22 18:20
Matchbook1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.25%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.76%1.0%2026-04-22 19:25
Smarkets1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.20%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67%1.6%2026-04-22 19:25