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Atlético Madrid v Real Madrid

2026-09-20 14:15 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Prediction 25.41%3.94fair odd
EV +2.65%
Edge +0.657%
Kelly +0.873%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 4.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.11%25.38%25.40%26.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.673.604.0430.30%27.29%27.78%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 50.24%1.99fair odd
EV -1.02%
Edge -0.520%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.34%50.14%50.45%51.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.861.851.9758.14%53.79%54.05%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.35%4.11fair odd
EV +2.26%
Edge +0.539%
Kelly +0.708%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.41%24.49%24.14%26.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.833.814.2028.57%26.08%26.21%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Atlético Madrid (Local): 25.41%; Real Madrid (Visit): 50.24%; Draw: 24.35%. For Atlético Madrid (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.94. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.04, producing a positive expected value of +2.65%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.04I 24.75%NM 24.36%EV +2.65%E +0.657%K +0.873%G +0.023%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.95%EV -1.02%E -0.520%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.69%EV -6.74%E -1.76%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.6%2026-09-13 17:10
Pinnacle🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.34%EV -0.903%E -0.231%K -0.311%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.22%EV -5.04%E -2.67%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.45%EV -9.18%E -2.46%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-13 18:50
DraftKings🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.33%EV -0.903%E -0.231%K -0.311%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%EV -4.04%E -2.11%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.00%EV -11.13%E -3.05%K -4.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-13 17:50
Coral🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -0.903%E -0.231%K -0.311%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.82%EV -7.05%E -3.81%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -8.69%E -2.32%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 19:50
Codere (IT)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -3.44%E -0.906%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.88%EV -6.05%E -3.23%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.09%EV -3.82%E -0.968%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 19:31
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -3.44%E -0.906%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -8.06%E -4.40%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -2.61%E -0.651%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 19:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -3.44%E -0.906%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -7.05%E -3.81%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -8.69%E -2.32%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 19:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -4.71%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -7.05%E -3.81%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.47%E -1.97%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 19:30
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -5.98%E -1.62%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -2.03%E -1.04%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -12.34%E -3.43%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 18:00
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -5.98%E -1.62%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -2.03%E -1.04%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -12.34%E -3.43%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 18:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -5.98%E -1.62%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -7.05%E -3.81%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -12.34%E -3.43%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 19:50
PlayUp🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -7.26%E -1.99%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.46%EV -4.54%E -2.39%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -14.78%E -4.22%K -5.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 19:46
Fanatics🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.58%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.09%EV -4.04%E -2.11%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.33%EV -0.170%E -0.042%K -0.055%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-13 19:50
Betr (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.89%EV -7.05%E -3.81%K -8.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -0.170%E -0.042%K -0.055%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 19:40
betfred_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -8.06%E -4.40%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV +2.26%E +0.539%K +0.708%G +0.016%6.2%2026-09-13 19:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -6.05%E -3.23%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -2.61%E -0.651%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 19:46
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -6.05%E -3.23%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -2.61%E -0.651%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 19:47
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -7.05%E -3.81%K -8.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -2.61%E -0.651%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 19:40
Neds🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -7.05%E -3.81%K -8.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -2.61%E -0.651%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 19:40
Winamax (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.70%EV -8.56%E -4.70%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -5.04%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-13 19:29
Betway🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.05%E -3.81%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -12.34%E -3.43%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 18:05
LeoVegas🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -8.53%E -2.37%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -9.56%E -5.31%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.47%E -1.97%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 19:50
Bet Right🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -9.80%E -2.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.55%EV -7.56%E -4.11%K -8.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -2.61%E -0.651%K -0.868%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 19:40
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -13.61%E -4.00%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.05%E -3.81%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -5.04%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-13 19:40
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -13.61%E -4.00%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.47%EV -12.08%E -6.90%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.55%EV -8.69%E -2.32%K -3.16%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-13 17:05
Winamax (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.07%EV -16.15%E -4.89%K -7.02%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 50.03%EV -13.58%E -7.90%K -18.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.90%EV -12.34%E -3.43%K -4.75%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-13 19:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.54%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%3.1%2026-09-13 19:46
Matchbook◎3.55I 28.17%NM 24.92%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.43%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.65%13.0%2026-09-13 18:35
Smarkets◎3.45I 28.99%NM 25.59%1.77I 56.50%NM 49.88%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.53%13.3%2026-09-13 19:30
Arbitrage (5 combinations) +0.68%1xBet 4.04 (24.9%) / 1xBet 1.97 (51.1%) / betfred_uk 4.20 (24.0%)Show all 5 combinations
Atlético Madrid (Local)Real Madrid (Visit)DrawMargin
1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.9%)1xBet🎯 1.97 (51.1%)betfred_uk🎯 4.20 (24.0%)+0.681%
1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)Betsson🎯 1.95 (51.4%)betfred_uk🎯 4.20 (23.8%)+0.156%
1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)NordicBet🎯 1.95 (51.4%)betfred_uk🎯 4.20 (23.8%)+0.156%
1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)1xBet🎯 1.97 (50.8%)Fanatics🎯 4.10 (24.4%)+0.096%
1xBet🎯 4.04 (24.8%)1xBet🎯 1.97 (50.8%)Betr (AU)🎯 4.10 (24.4%)+0.096%