Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Madrid v Barcelona

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Prediction 29.38%3.40fair odd
EV +4.29%
Edge +1.21%
Kelly +1.68%
Growth +0.072%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.30%29.47%29.41%32.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.193.203.5534.48%31.31%31.25%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barcelona (Visit)

Prediction 47.52%2.10fair odd
EV +2.17%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.89%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.81%47.36%47.56%50.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.012.002.1554.64%49.87%50.00%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.10%4.33fair odd
EV -0.435%
Edge -0.101%
Kelly -0.131%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.13%23.17%23.03%26.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.304.004.004.3130.30%25.02%25.00%23.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlético Madrid (Local): 29.38%; Barcelona (Visit): 47.52%; Draw: 23.10%. For Atlético Madrid (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.40. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.29%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.30%EV +4.29%E +1.21%K +1.68%G +0.072%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.21%EV -8.28%E -4.29%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.49%EV -0.435%E -0.101%K -0.131%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 18:54
Coolbet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.31%EV +1.35%E +0.391%K +0.550%G +0.007%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.87%EV -3.05%E -1.50%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.82%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-04 18:49
LowVig.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -0.121%E -0.035%K -0.050%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.81%EV -4.00%E -1.98%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.79%EV -6.21%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-04 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -0.121%E -0.035%K -0.050%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.81%EV -4.00%E -1.98%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.79%EV -6.21%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-04 18:54
Codere (IT)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.94%EV -3.06%E -0.927%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.76%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.30%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 18:54
SportsBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.06%E -0.927%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:49
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.06%E -0.927%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:50
Bet Victor🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.06%E -0.927%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:53
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -3.06%E -0.927%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.91%EV -8.28%E -4.29%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 18:53
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.89%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.82%EV +0.748%E +0.353%K +0.668%G +0.005%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 18:54
Unibet (NL)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.76%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.06%EV -0.202%E -0.096%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 18:40
Unibet (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.76%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.06%EV -0.202%E -0.096%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 18:40
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.76%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.06%EV -0.202%E -0.096%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 18:44
DraftKings🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.55%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 18:49
Betsson🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.20%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.93%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.87%EV -4.13%E -0.995%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:49
NordicBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.20%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.93%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.87%EV -4.13%E -0.995%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:50
Sky Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.44%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.52%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 18:54
Marathon Bet🎯3.22I 31.06%NM 30.40%EV -5.41%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.84%EV -0.677%E -0.324%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.76%EV -0.666%E -0.155%K -0.202%G +0.000%2.2%2026-04-04 18:54
theScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.59%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 18:50
Everygame🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.59%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 18:49
Casumo🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.04%EV -2.10%E -1.02%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:40
Bally Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.04%EV -2.10%E -1.02%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:40
Grosvenor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.04%EV -2.10%E -1.02%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:40
betPARX🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.04%EV -2.10%E -1.02%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:45
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 18:50
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 18:55
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 18:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 18:55
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 18:54
William Hill🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 18:50
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -9.23%E -4.83%K -10.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 18:49
Pinnacle🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 30.67%EV -6.88%E -2.17%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.51%EV -0.677%E -0.324%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.82%EV -1.59%E -0.373%K -0.488%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 18:45
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -7.46%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.92%EV -3.05%E -1.50%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -11.06%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 18:54
TABtouch🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -7.46%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.92%EV -3.05%E -1.50%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -11.06%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 18:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -7.46%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.92%EV -3.05%E -1.50%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -11.06%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 18:54
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.46%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.86%E -3.50%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 18:54
BetRivers🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -7.46%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.17%EV -4.00%E -1.98%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -11.06%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 18:44
PlayUp🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -7.46%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 18:49
PMU (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.40%EV -0.202%E -0.096%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-04 18:40
Betclic (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.66%EV -4.13%E -0.995%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 18:53
Betr (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 18:49
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -13.37%E -3.57%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-04 18:54
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.30%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -12.22%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-04 18:54
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.30%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -12.22%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-04 18:54
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.63%EV -8.76%E -4.56%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-04 18:55
Fliff🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -9.23%E -4.83%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 18:54
Bet Right🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.24%EV -10.40%E -3.41%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.11%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 18:50
NetBet (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -10.40%E -3.41%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.50%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.31%EV -8.75%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 18:54
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -11.87%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV +2.17%E +1.01%K +1.89%G +0.041%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -12.22%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 04:55
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -11.87%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.37%EV -13.03%E -7.12%K -15.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.13%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-04 18:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.74%EV -11.87%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.14%EV -9.23%E -4.83%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.13%EV -23.77%E -7.20%K -10.33%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-04 18:54
TAB🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -14.81%E -5.11%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.20%EV -0.202%E -0.096%K -0.184%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 15:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.7%2026-04-04 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.7%2026-04-04 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.7%2026-04-04 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.7%2026-04-04 18:50
Matchbook3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.7%2026-04-04 18:55
Kalshi3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.54%2.0%2026-04-04 18:50