La escuela de los momios

Atlético Madrid v Barcelona

Inicio: 2026-04-04 19:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Predicción 29.38%3.40momio equitativo
EV +4.29%
Ventaja +1.21%
Kelly +1.68%
Crecimiento +0.072%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.30%29.47%29.41%32.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.903.193.203.5534.48%31.31%31.25%28.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Barcelona (Visitante)

Predicción 47.52%2.10momio equitativo
EV +2.17%
Ventaja +1.01%
Kelly +1.89%
Crecimiento +0.041%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.81%47.36%47.56%50.21%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.832.012.002.1554.64%49.87%50.00%46.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.10%4.33momio equitativo
EV -0.435%
Ventaja -0.101%
Kelly -0.131%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.31

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.13%23.17%23.03%26.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.304.004.004.3130.30%25.02%25.00%23.20%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet3.55I 28.17%NM 27.30%EV +4.29%E +1.21%K +1.68%G +0.072%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.21%EV -8.28%E -4.29%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.49%EV -0.435%E -0.101%K -0.131%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 18:54
Coolbet3.45I 28.99%NM 28.31%EV +1.35%E +0.391%K +0.550%G +0.007%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.87%EV -3.05%E -1.50%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.82%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-04 18:49
LowVig.ag3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -0.121%E -0.035%K -0.050%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.81%EV -4.00%E -1.98%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.79%EV -6.21%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-04 18:50
BetOnline.ag3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -0.121%E -0.035%K -0.050%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.81%EV -4.00%E -1.98%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.79%EV -6.21%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-04 18:54
Codere (IT)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.94%EV -3.06%E -0.927%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.76%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.30%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 18:54
SportsBet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.06%E -0.927%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:49
FanDuel3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.06%E -0.927%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:50
Bet Victor3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.06%E -0.927%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:53
Tipico (DE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -3.06%E -0.927%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.91%EV -8.28%E -4.29%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 18:53
ATG (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.89%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.82%EV +0.748%E +0.353%K +0.668%G +0.005%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 18:54
Unibet (NL)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.76%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.06%EV -0.202%E -0.096%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 18:40
Unibet (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.76%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.06%EV -0.202%E -0.096%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 18:40
Svenska Spel3.25I 30.77%NM 29.76%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.06%EV -0.202%E -0.096%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 18:44
DraftKings3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.55%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 18:49
Betsson3.25I 30.77%NM 29.20%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.93%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.87%EV -4.13%E -0.995%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:49
NordicBet3.25I 30.77%NM 29.20%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.93%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.87%EV -4.13%E -0.995%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:50
Sky Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.44%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 18:50
Unibet (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.52%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 18:54
Marathon Bet3.22I 31.06%NM 30.40%EV -5.41%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.84%EV -0.677%E -0.324%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.76%EV -0.666%E -0.155%K -0.202%G +0.000%2.2%2026-04-04 18:54
theScore Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.59%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 18:50
Everygame3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.59%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 18:49
Casumo3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.04%EV -2.10%E -1.02%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:40
Bally Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.04%EV -2.10%E -1.02%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:40
Grosvenor3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.04%EV -2.10%E -1.02%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:40
betPARX3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.04%EV -2.10%E -1.02%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:45
Fanatics3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 18:50
Coral3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 18:55
BetMGM3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 18:54
Mr Green (SE)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 18:55
Neds3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 18:54
William Hill3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 18:50
Paddy Power3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -9.23%E -4.83%K -10.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 18:49
Pinnacle3.17I 31.55%NM 30.67%EV -6.88%E -2.17%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.51%EV -0.677%E -0.324%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.82%EV -1.59%E -0.373%K -0.488%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 18:45
Unibet3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -7.46%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.92%EV -3.05%E -1.50%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -11.06%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 18:54
TABtouch3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -7.46%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.92%EV -3.05%E -1.50%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -11.06%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 18:54
LeoVegas (SE)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -7.46%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.92%EV -3.05%E -1.50%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -11.06%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 18:54
Winamax (DE)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.46%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.86%E -3.50%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 18:54
BetRivers3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -7.46%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.17%EV -4.00%E -1.98%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -11.06%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 18:44
PlayUp3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -7.46%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 18:49
PMU (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.40%EV -0.202%E -0.096%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-04 18:40
Betclic (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.66%EV -4.13%E -0.995%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 18:53
Betr (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 18:49
LeoVegas3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -13.37%E -3.57%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-04 18:54
Virgin Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.30%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -12.22%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-04 18:54
LiveScore Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.30%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -12.22%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-04 18:54
Winamax (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.63%EV -8.76%E -4.56%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-04 18:55
Fliff3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -9.23%E -4.83%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 18:54
Bet Right3.05I 32.79%NM 30.24%EV -10.40%E -3.41%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.11%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 18:50
NetBet (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -10.40%E -3.41%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.50%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.31%EV -8.75%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 18:54
Betway3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -11.87%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV +2.17%E +1.01%K +1.89%G +0.041%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -12.22%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 04:55
BoyleSports3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -11.87%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.37%EV -13.03%E -7.12%K -15.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.13%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-04 18:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 28.74%EV -11.87%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.14%EV -9.23%E -4.83%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.13%EV -23.77%E -7.20%K -10.33%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-04 18:54
TAB2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -14.81%E -5.11%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.20%EV -0.202%E -0.096%K -0.184%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 15:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.7%2026-04-04 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.7%2026-04-04 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.7%2026-04-04 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.7%2026-04-04 18:50
Matchbook3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.7%2026-04-04 18:55
Kalshi3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.54%2.0%2026-04-04 18:50