Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Atlético Madrid v Barcelona

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-04 19:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Prévision 29.38%3.40cote équitable
EV +4.29%
Avantage +1.21%
Kelly +1.68%
Croissance +0.072%

avec la cote maximale 3.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.30%29.47%29.41%32.00%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.903.193.203.5534.48%31.31%31.25%28.17%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Barcelona (Visiteur)

Prévision 47.52%2.10cote équitable
EV +2.17%
Avantage +1.01%
Kelly +1.89%
Croissance +0.041%

avec la cote maximale 2.15

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
43.81%47.36%47.56%50.21%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.832.012.002.1554.64%49.87%50.00%46.51%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 23.10%4.33cote équitable
EV -0.435%
Avantage -0.101%
Kelly -0.131%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.31

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.13%23.17%23.03%26.13%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.304.004.004.3130.30%25.02%25.00%23.20%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Atlético Madrid (Local) : 29.38% ; Barcelona (Visiteur) : 47.52% ; Match nul : 23.10%. Pour Atlético Madrid (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 3.40. 2 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 3.55, soit une espérance positive de +4.29%.

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.30%EV +4.29%E +1.21%K +1.68%G +0.072%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.21%EV -8.28%E -4.29%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.49%EV -0.435%E -0.101%K -0.131%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 18:54
Coolbet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.31%EV +1.35%E +0.391%K +0.550%G +0.007%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.87%EV -3.05%E -1.50%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.82%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-04 18:49
LowVig.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -0.121%E -0.035%K -0.050%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.81%EV -4.00%E -1.98%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.79%EV -6.21%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-04 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -0.121%E -0.035%K -0.050%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.81%EV -4.00%E -1.98%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.79%EV -6.21%E -1.53%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-04 18:54
Codere (IT)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.94%EV -3.06%E -0.927%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.76%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.30%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 18:54
SportsBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.06%E -0.927%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:49
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.06%E -0.927%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:50
Bet Victor🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.06%E -0.927%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:53
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -3.06%E -0.927%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.91%EV -8.28%E -4.29%K -8.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 18:53
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.89%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.82%EV +0.748%E +0.353%K +0.668%G +0.005%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 18:54
Unibet (NL)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.76%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.06%EV -0.202%E -0.096%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 18:40
Unibet (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.76%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.06%EV -0.202%E -0.096%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 18:40
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.76%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.06%EV -0.202%E -0.096%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 18:44
DraftKings🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.55%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 18:49
Betsson🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.20%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.93%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.87%EV -4.13%E -0.995%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:49
NordicBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.20%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.93%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.87%EV -4.13%E -0.995%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:50
Sky Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.44%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.52%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 18:54
Marathon Bet🎯3.22I 31.06%NM 30.40%EV -5.41%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.84%EV -0.677%E -0.324%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.76%EV -0.666%E -0.155%K -0.202%G +0.000%2.2%2026-04-04 18:54
theScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.59%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 18:50
Everygame🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.59%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -2.98%E -0.709%K -0.930%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 18:49
Casumo🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.04%EV -2.10%E -1.02%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:40
Bally Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.04%EV -2.10%E -1.02%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:40
Grosvenor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.04%EV -2.10%E -1.02%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:40
betPARX🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.04%EV -2.10%E -1.02%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 18:45
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 18:50
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 18:55
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 18:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 18:55
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 18:54
William Hill🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 18:50
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.00%E -1.87%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -9.23%E -4.83%K -10.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 18:49
Pinnacle🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 30.67%EV -6.88%E -2.17%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.51%EV -0.677%E -0.324%K -0.621%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.82%EV -1.59%E -0.373%K -0.488%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 18:45
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -7.46%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.92%EV -3.05%E -1.50%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -11.06%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 18:54
TABtouch🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -7.46%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.92%EV -3.05%E -1.50%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -11.06%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 18:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -7.46%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.92%EV -3.05%E -1.50%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -11.06%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 18:54
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.46%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.61%EV -6.86%E -3.50%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -5.29%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 18:54
BetRivers🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -7.46%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.17%EV -4.00%E -1.98%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -11.06%E -2.87%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 18:44
PlayUp🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -7.46%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -7.33%E -3.76%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 18:49
PMU (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.40%EV -0.202%E -0.096%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-04 18:40
Betclic (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.66%EV -4.13%E -0.995%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 18:53
Betr (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 18:49
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -13.37%E -3.57%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-04 18:54
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.30%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -12.22%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-04 18:54
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.30%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -12.22%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-04 18:54
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.63%EV -8.76%E -4.56%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-04 18:55
Fliff🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -8.93%E -2.88%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -9.23%E -4.83%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 18:54
Bet Right🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.24%EV -10.40%E -3.41%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.11%EV -4.95%E -2.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 18:50
NetBet (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -10.40%E -3.41%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.50%EV -5.90%E -2.98%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.31%EV -8.75%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 18:54
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -11.87%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV +2.17%E +1.01%K +1.89%G +0.041%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -12.22%E -3.21%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 04:55
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -11.87%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.37%EV -13.03%E -7.12%K -15.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.13%EV -7.60%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-04 18:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.74%EV -11.87%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.14%EV -9.23%E -4.83%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.13%EV -23.77%E -7.20%K -10.33%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-04 18:54
TAB🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -14.81%E -5.11%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.20%EV -0.202%E -0.096%K -0.184%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -9.91%E -2.54%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 15:30
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.7%2026-04-04 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.7%2026-04-04 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.7%2026-04-04 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.7%2026-04-04 18:50
Matchbook3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.66%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.7%2026-04-04 18:55
Kalshi3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.54%2.0%2026-04-04 18:50