Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Madrid v Athletic Bilbao

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Prediction 43.48%2.30fair odd
EV +4.79%
Edge +1.99%
Kelly +3.40%
Growth +0.163%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.74%43.47%43.68%45.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.162.4150.00%46.20%46.30%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Athletic Bilbao (Visit)

Prediction 29.85%3.35fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.451%
Kelly -0.647%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.49%29.93%29.70%32.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.963.163.203.3033.78%31.69%31.30%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.66%3.75fair odd
EV -0.807%
Edge -0.217%
Kelly -0.297%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.41%26.59%26.62%29.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.513.503.7233.33%28.46%28.57%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlético Madrid (Local): 43.48%; Athletic Bilbao (Visit): 29.85%; Draw: 26.66%. For Atlético Madrid (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.30. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.41, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.79%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.80%EV +4.79%E +1.99%K +3.40%G +0.163%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.77%EV -10.44%E -3.48%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.43%EV -0.807%E -0.217%K -0.297%G +0.000%1.7%2026-04-23 16:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.74%EV +3.49%E +1.47%K +2.53%G +0.088%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.76%EV -11.64%E -3.93%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.49%EV -2.41%E -0.658%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-23 16:39
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -2.16%E -0.961%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -7.46%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 18:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.68%EV -2.16%E -0.961%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -8.95%E -2.93%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 09:24
Codere (IT)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.92%EV -3.47%E -1.56%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.25%EV -5.97%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 13:35
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.92%EV -3.47%E -1.56%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.25%EV -5.97%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-24 00:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -1.49%E -0.451%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -2.67%E -0.733%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 01:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -1.49%E -0.451%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -2.67%E -0.733%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 01:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -1.49%E -0.451%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -2.67%E -0.733%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 01:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -1.49%E -0.451%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -2.67%E -0.733%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 01:09
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.94%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.65%EV -2.68%E -0.823%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.41%EV -2.41%E -0.658%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-23 21:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.94%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.65%EV -2.68%E -0.823%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.41%EV -2.41%E -0.658%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-23 21:39
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.71%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.59%EV -2.98%E -0.917%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.71%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-23 10:38
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -2.98%E -0.917%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 11:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -5.97%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 10:50
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 11:50
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.46%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 16:50
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.46%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 09:25
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -8.95%E -2.93%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 09:24
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.44%E -3.48%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 20:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.44%E -3.48%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 20:30
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -5.21%E -2.39%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 16:40
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.83%EV -5.64%E -2.60%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.82%EV -4.77%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.35%EV -3.74%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 16:50
Bovada🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -5.64%E -2.60%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.06%EV -5.97%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 16:48
NetBet (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.54%EV -5.64%E -2.60%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.08%EV -11.34%E -3.82%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 10:54
Casumo🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%EV -6.08%E -2.81%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 09:24
Grosvenor🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%EV -6.08%E -2.81%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 09:24
Bally Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%EV -6.08%E -2.81%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 09:24
betPARX🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%EV -6.08%E -2.81%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 09:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.46%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -1.34%E -0.362%K -0.497%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 13:44
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -2.98%E -0.917%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 22:19
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 22:20
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 19:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 11:49
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 11:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 11:50
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -5.97%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 16:39
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.44%E -3.48%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 22:48
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.02%EV -6.95%E -3.25%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 01:09
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.02%EV -6.95%E -3.25%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 01:09
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.02%EV -6.95%E -3.25%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 01:10
Coolbet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.70%EV -7.38%E -3.47%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -1.49%E -0.451%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 07:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.54%EV -7.82%E -3.69%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.23%EV -3.58%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 19:05
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.88%EV -7.82%E -3.69%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -5.97%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 09:24
PMU (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.46%EV -7.82%E -3.69%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -8.95%E -2.93%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-24 01:40
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -7.82%E -3.69%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.46%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 16:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -1.49%E -0.451%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 06:50
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -2.98%E -0.917%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 22:22
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -8.95%E -2.93%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.41%EV -2.67%E -0.733%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 13:44
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 22:20
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.74%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -7.46%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 01:09
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.53%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -8.95%E -2.93%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 11:03
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -7.46%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -20.01%E -6.67%K -10.00%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-23 22:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.08%EV -11.29%E -5.54%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.48%EV -8.95%E -2.93%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-23 01:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.08%EV -11.29%E -5.54%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.48%EV -8.95%E -2.93%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-23 01:09
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -13.03%E -6.52%K -13.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.46%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-22 19:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%0.3%2026-04-24 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%0.3%2026-04-24 00:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%0.3%2026-04-24 00:24
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%0.3%2026-04-24 00:20
Smarkets2.24I 44.64%NM 43.78%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-04-24 03:50
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 44.12%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-04-23 23:20