La escuela de los momios

Atlético Madrid v Athletic Bilbao

Inicio: 2026-04-25 19:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Predicción 43.48%2.30momio equitativo
EV +4.79%
Ventaja +1.99%
Kelly +3.40%
Crecimiento +0.163%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.41

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.74%43.47%43.68%45.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.162.162.4150.00%46.20%46.30%41.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Athletic Bilbao (Visitante)

Predicción 29.85%3.35momio equitativo
EV -1.49%
Ventaja -0.451%
Kelly -0.647%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.49%29.93%29.70%32.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.963.163.203.3033.78%31.69%31.30%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.66%3.75momio equitativo
EV -0.807%
Ventaja -0.217%
Kelly -0.297%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.72

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.41%26.59%26.62%29.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.513.503.7233.33%28.46%28.57%26.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.41I 41.49%NM 40.80%EV +4.79%E +1.99%K +3.40%G +0.163%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.77%EV -10.44%E -3.48%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.43%EV -0.807%E -0.217%K -0.297%G +0.000%1.7%2026-04-23 16:44
Marathon Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 40.74%EV +3.49%E +1.47%K +2.53%G +0.088%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.76%EV -11.64%E -3.93%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.49%EV -2.41%E -0.658%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-23 16:39
betfred_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -2.16%E -0.961%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -7.46%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 18:05
Betr (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.68%EV -2.16%E -0.961%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -8.95%E -2.93%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 09:24
Codere (IT)2.22I 45.05%NM 42.92%EV -3.47%E -1.56%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.25%EV -5.97%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 13:35
Betsson2.22I 45.05%NM 42.92%EV -3.47%E -1.56%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.25%EV -5.97%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-24 00:25
Unibet (NL)2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -1.49%E -0.451%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -2.67%E -0.733%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 01:09
Unibet (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -1.49%E -0.451%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -2.67%E -0.733%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 01:10
Svenska Spel2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -1.49%E -0.451%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -2.67%E -0.733%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 01:09
ATG (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -1.49%E -0.451%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -2.67%E -0.733%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 01:09
LowVig.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 43.94%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.65%EV -2.68%E -0.823%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.41%EV -2.41%E -0.658%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-23 21:40
BetOnline.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 43.94%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.65%EV -2.68%E -0.823%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.41%EV -2.41%E -0.658%K -0.905%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-23 21:39
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 43.71%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.59%EV -2.98%E -0.917%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.71%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-23 10:38
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -2.98%E -0.917%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 11:50
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -5.97%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 10:50
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 11:50
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.46%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 16:50
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -7.46%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 09:25
Bet Right2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -8.95%E -2.93%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 09:24
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.44%E -3.48%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 20:34
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -10.44%E -3.48%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 20:30
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -5.21%E -2.39%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 16:40
Pinnacle2.17I 46.08%NM 43.83%EV -5.64%E -2.60%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.82%EV -4.77%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.35%EV -3.74%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 16:50
Bovada2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -5.64%E -2.60%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.06%EV -5.97%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 16:48
NetBet (FR)2.17I 46.08%NM 42.54%EV -5.64%E -2.60%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.08%EV -11.34%E -3.82%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 10:54
Casumo2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%EV -6.08%E -2.81%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 09:24
Grosvenor2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%EV -6.08%E -2.81%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 09:24
Bally Bet2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%EV -6.08%E -2.81%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 09:24
betPARX2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%EV -6.08%E -2.81%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 09:25
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.46%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -1.34%E -0.362%K -0.497%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 13:44
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -2.98%E -0.917%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 22:19
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 22:20
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-22 19:35
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 11:49
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 11:50
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 11:50
TAB2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -5.97%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 16:39
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.44%E -3.48%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 22:48
LeoVegas (SE)2.14I 46.73%NM 44.02%EV -6.95%E -3.25%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 01:09
TABtouch2.14I 46.73%NM 44.02%EV -6.95%E -3.25%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 01:09
Unibet2.14I 46.73%NM 44.02%EV -6.95%E -3.25%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 01:10
Coolbet2.13I 46.95%NM 44.70%EV -7.38%E -3.47%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -1.49%E -0.451%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 07:50
Betclic (FR)2.12I 47.17%NM 44.54%EV -7.82%E -3.69%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.23%EV -3.58%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 19:05
BetRivers2.12I 47.17%NM 43.88%EV -7.82%E -3.69%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -5.97%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 09:24
PMU (FR)2.12I 47.17%NM 43.46%EV -7.82%E -3.69%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -8.95%E -2.93%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-24 01:40
PlayUp2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -7.82%E -3.69%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.46%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 16:40
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -1.49%E -0.451%K -0.647%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 06:50
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -2.98%E -0.917%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 22:22
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -8.95%E -2.93%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.41%EV -2.67%E -0.733%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 13:44
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 22:20
LeoVegas2.10I 47.62%NM 43.74%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -7.46%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 01:09
Everygame2.10I 47.62%NM 43.53%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -8.95%E -2.93%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 11:03
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -8.69%E -4.14%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -7.46%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -20.01%E -6.67%K -10.00%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-23 22:19
Virgin Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 44.08%EV -11.29%E -5.54%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.48%EV -8.95%E -2.93%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-23 01:09
LiveScore Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 44.08%EV -11.29%E -5.54%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.48%EV -8.95%E -2.93%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-23 01:09
BoyleSports2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -13.03%E -6.52%K -13.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.46%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-22 19:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%0.3%2026-04-24 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%0.3%2026-04-24 00:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%0.3%2026-04-24 00:24
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%0.3%2026-04-24 00:20
Smarkets2.24I 44.64%NM 43.78%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-04-24 03:50
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 44.12%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-04-23 23:20