The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad

2026-11-01 20:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Athletic Bilbao (Local)

Prediction 49.04%2.04fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.75%49.07%49.00%50.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.901.911.9856.50%52.76%52.36%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Sociedad (Visit)

Prediction 24.77%4.04fair odd
EV +3.06%
Edge +0.736%
Kelly +0.969%
Growth +0.030%

assuming max odds 4.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.65%24.82%24.81%26.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.773.774.1629.41%26.50%26.49%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.18%3.82fair odd
EV -0.513%
Edge -0.135%
Kelly -0.183%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.53%26.11%26.19%26.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.583.603.8029.85%27.92%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Athletic Bilbao (Local): 49.04%; Real Sociedad (Visit): 24.77%; Draw: 26.18%. For Real Sociedad (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.04. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.16, producing a positive expected value of +3.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 50.46%EV -4.36%E -2.24%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.65%EV +3.06%E +0.736%K +0.969%G +0.030%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.89%EV -0.513%E -0.135%K -0.183%G +0.000%1.6%2026-10-18 21:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.44%EV -6.82%E -3.59%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.66%EV +0.338%E +0.083%K +0.111%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.90%EV -3.13%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 21:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.30%EV -9.27%E -5.01%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -3.38%E -0.866%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 21:39
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.30%EV -9.27%E -5.01%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -3.38%E -0.866%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 21:39
Coolbet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.60%EV -5.34%E -2.77%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%EV -4.62%E -1.20%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.53%EV -1.82%E -0.486%K -0.662%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-19 00:39
SportsBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.40%EV -5.83%E -3.04%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -3.13%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-19 00:39
BetMGM🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.92%EV -5.34%E -2.77%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-19 00:39
Fanatics🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.92%EV -5.34%E -2.77%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-19 00:45
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.33%E -3.31%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-19 00:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.33%E -3.31%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-19 00:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.33%E -3.31%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-19 00:40
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.33%E -3.31%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-19 00:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.22%EV -7.80%E -4.15%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-19 00:40
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -10.25%E -5.60%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 00:40
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -4.36%E -2.24%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -7.09%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-19 00:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -4.36%E -2.24%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -7.09%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-19 00:40
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -6.33%E -3.31%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -7.09%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-19 00:48
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.55%EV -8.29%E -4.43%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -7.09%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 00:39
picklebet_au🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.19%EV -8.29%E -4.43%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -7.09%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 00:40
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.64%EV -9.27%E -5.01%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.09%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.87%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-19 00:44
Pinnacle🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.02%EV -2.89%E -1.46%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.42%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.56%EV -6.27%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-18 23:30
Bovada🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.78%EV -2.89%E -1.46%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -8.33%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-18 23:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.52%EV -8.78%E -4.72%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -8.33%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-19 00:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.03%EV -13.19%E -7.45%K -17.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.93%EV -8.33%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-19 00:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.40%EV -11.23%E -6.20%K -13.86%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.30%EV -8.83%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-19 00:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -3.38%E -1.72%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -10.81%E -3.00%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 22:14
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.33%E -3.31%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.81%E -3.00%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 00:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.66%EV -12.70%E -7.14%K -16.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.48%EV -15.77%E -4.64%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.86%EV -12.29%E -3.67%K -5.23%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-19 00:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.94%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%0.8%2026-10-19 00:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.94%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%0.8%2026-10-19 00:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.94%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%0.8%2026-10-19 00:05
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 48.54%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.24%3.0%2026-10-18 23:49
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 45.69%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.83%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.49%3.2%2026-10-19 00:29