Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad

2026-11-01 20:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Frente a frente

28 casas de apostas (10 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Athletic Bilbao (Local)

Previsão 48.88%2.05odd justa
EV -3.23%
Vantagem -1.63%
Kelly -3.29%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.98

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
47.75%48.96%48.89%50.46%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.781.901.911.9856.18%52.65%52.36%50.51%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Real Sociedad (Visitante)

Previsão 24.92%4.01odd justa
EV +3.68%
Vantagem +0.884%
Kelly +1.16%
Crescimento +0.043%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.16

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.65%24.90%24.86%26.13%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.353.763.754.1629.85%26.62%26.67%24.04%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.20%3.82odd justa
EV -0.432%
Vantagem -0.114%
Kelly -0.154%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.53%26.13%26.25%26.65%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.303.583.603.8030.30%27.96%27.78%26.32%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Frente a frente, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Athletic Bilbao (Local): 48.88%; Real Sociedad (Visitante): 24.92%; Empate: 26.20%. Para Real Sociedad (Visitante), essa estimativa equivale a odds decimais justas de 4.01. 2 casas de apostas oferecem odds acima desse nível; as melhores odds disponíveis são 4.16, produzindo um valor esperado positivo de +3.68%.

Odds das casas de apostas (28 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 50.46%EV -4.69%E -2.41%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.65%EV +3.68%E +0.884%K +1.16%G +0.043%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.89%EV -0.432%E -0.114%K -0.154%G +0.000%1.6%2026-10-18 21:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.44%EV -7.14%E -3.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.66%EV +0.936%E +0.231%K +0.307%G +0.003%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.90%EV -3.05%E -0.825%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 21:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.30%EV -9.58%E -5.18%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -2.80%E -0.718%K -0.966%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 21:39
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.30%EV -9.58%E -5.18%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -2.80%E -0.718%K -0.966%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 21:39
Coolbet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.60%EV -5.67%E -2.94%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%EV -4.05%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.53%EV -1.74%E -0.464%K -0.633%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-19 00:39
SportsBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.40%EV -6.16%E -3.21%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -3.05%E -0.825%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-19 00:39
BetMGM🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.92%EV -5.67%E -2.94%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-19 00:39
Fanatics🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.92%EV -5.67%E -2.94%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-19 00:45
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.65%E -3.48%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-19 00:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.65%E -3.48%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-19 00:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.65%E -3.48%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-19 00:40
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.65%E -3.48%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-19 00:45
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -10.56%E -5.77%K -12.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 00:40
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -4.69%E -2.41%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -6.54%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-19 00:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -4.69%E -2.41%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -6.54%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-19 00:40
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -6.65%E -3.48%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -6.54%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-19 00:48
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.79%EV -7.14%E -3.76%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -6.54%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -8.29%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 01:49
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.55%EV -8.60%E -4.60%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -6.54%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 00:39
Pinnacle🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.02%EV -3.23%E -1.63%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.42%EV -6.79%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.56%EV -6.20%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-18 23:30
Bovada🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.78%EV -3.23%E -1.63%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -7.79%E -2.10%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -6.98%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-18 23:34
picklebet_au🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.89%EV -8.11%E -4.32%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -7.79%E -2.10%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -8.29%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-19 01:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.08%EV -8.11%E -4.32%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -9.03%E -2.47%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-19 01:49
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.73%EV -8.11%E -4.32%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -9.03%E -2.47%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.29%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-19 01:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -3.72%E -1.89%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -5.67%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 22:14
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.65%E -3.48%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.29%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 00:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.79%EV -10.56%E -5.77%K -12.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.41%EV -11.44%E -3.38%K -4.81%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-19 01:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.55%EV -13.00%E -7.30%K -16.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.50%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -10.91%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-19 01:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.29%EV -13.00%E -7.30%K -16.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.66%EV -16.51%E -4.93%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.05%EV -13.53%E -4.10%K -5.88%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-19 01:49
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.94%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%0.8%2026-10-19 00:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.94%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%0.8%2026-10-19 00:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.94%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%0.8%2026-10-19 00:05
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 48.54%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.24%3.0%2026-10-18 23:49
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 45.69%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.83%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.49%3.2%2026-10-19 00:29