Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alavés v Mallorca

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alavés (Local)

Prediction 44.12%2.27fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.27%44.13%44.07%45.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.142.152.2148.78%46.72%46.51%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mallorca (Visit)

Prediction 25.66%3.90fair odd
EV +0.057%
Edge +0.015%
Kelly +0.020%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.30%25.73%25.70%27.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.673.703.9030.30%27.23%27.03%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.22%3.31fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -0.549%
Kelly -0.793%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.77%30.15%30.23%31.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.103.113.2534.72%32.21%32.15%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alavés (Local): 44.12%; Mallorca (Visit): 25.66%; Draw: 30.22%. For Mallorca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.898. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.900, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.057%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 44.51%EV -2.48%E -1.12%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.22%EV +0.057%E +0.015%K +0.020%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.27%EV -1.79%E -0.549%K -0.793%G +0.000%1.7%2026-04-24 03:40
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.13%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV +0.057%E +0.015%K +0.020%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV -6.32%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-22 21:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.31%EV -3.81%E -1.75%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.02%EV -0.970%E -0.251%K -0.339%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.67%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-23 03:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.31%EV -3.81%E -1.75%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.02%EV -0.970%E -0.251%K -0.339%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.67%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-23 03:29
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -2.93%E -1.33%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.17%EV -1.23%E -0.318%K -0.430%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 11:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -2.93%E -1.33%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.17%EV -1.23%E -0.318%K -0.430%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 11:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -2.93%E -1.33%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.17%EV -1.23%E -0.318%K -0.430%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 11:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -2.93%E -1.33%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.17%EV -1.23%E -0.318%K -0.430%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 11:50
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.41%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -1.23%E -0.318%K -0.430%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -6.32%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 20:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.47%EV -3.81%E -1.75%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.24%EV -1.48%E -0.386%K -0.522%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.29%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-24 03:35
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -2.51%E -0.660%K -0.896%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -9.34%E -3.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-22 21:10
Pinnacle🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.32%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.14%EV -2.77%E -0.730%K -0.991%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.54%EV -5.71%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-23 13:34
Bovada🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.23%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.24%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -6.32%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 13:25
BetUS🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.23%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.24%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -6.32%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 13:29
Casumo🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.78%EV -4.69%E -2.17%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -7.83%E -2.57%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 11:49
Grosvenor🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.78%EV -4.69%E -2.17%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -7.83%E -2.57%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 11:50
betPARX🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.78%EV -4.69%E -2.17%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -7.83%E -2.57%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 11:49
Bally Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.78%EV -4.69%E -2.17%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -7.83%E -2.57%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 11:49
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.01%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -7.83%E -2.57%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 11:50
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.01%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -7.83%E -2.57%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 11:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.01%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -7.83%E -2.57%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 11:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.84%EV -3.81%E -1.75%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.83%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.34%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-23 16:09
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.84%EV -3.81%E -1.75%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.83%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.34%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-23 14:05
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.39%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-24 03:50
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.39%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 16:00
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.05%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.35%EV -5.71%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-24 00:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 07:35
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.52%EV -6.46%E -3.05%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 13:29
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -6.46%E -3.05%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -7.83%E -2.57%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 11:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.22%EV -6.01%E -2.82%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.59%EV -5.59%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.19%EV -5.71%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 16:04
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -6.36%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.76%EV -9.34%E -3.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-22 11:50
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -6.36%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.76%EV -9.34%E -3.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-24 03:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -6.36%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.76%EV -9.34%E -3.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 12:54
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -2.93%E -1.33%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -6.32%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-21 21:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 13:44
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.32%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 16:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-24 03:50
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-22 11:50
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-22 11:50
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -9.34%E -3.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-22 07:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -9.34%E -3.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-22 06:59
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -9.34%E -3.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 13:29
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -6.32%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 16:05
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -6.32%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-24 03:50
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -8.92%E -2.51%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 11:49
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.41%EV -6.46%E -3.05%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -8.92%E -2.51%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -9.34%E -3.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 13:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.10%E -4.42%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -8.92%E -2.51%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -12.36%E -4.26%K -6.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-22 11:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.10%E -4.42%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -8.92%E -2.51%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -12.36%E -4.26%K -6.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-22 11:50
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -2.93%E -1.33%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -10.21%E -2.92%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 11:50
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -2.93%E -1.33%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -10.21%E -2.92%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.32%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-24 03:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -10.21%E -2.92%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-24 03:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.12%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -10.21%E -2.92%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 16:04
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -9.54%E -4.66%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.21%E -2.92%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 12:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -11.49%E -3.33%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-24 03:50
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -11.49%E -3.33%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-24 03:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -15.34%E -4.65%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -12.97%E -4.50%K -6.90%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-23 19:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.22I 45.05%NM 44.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.52%0.8%2026-04-24 01:55
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 44.58%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.72%1.0%2026-04-24 03:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.54%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-04-24 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.54%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-04-24 01:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.54%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-04-24 01:55
Smarkets2.20I 45.45%NM 44.55%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.81%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.63%2.0%2026-04-24 01:55