La escuela de los momios

Alavés v Mallorca

Inicio: 2026-04-25 12:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Alavés (Local)

Predicción 44.12%2.27momio equitativo
EV -2.48%
Ventaja -1.12%
Kelly -2.05%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.21

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.27%44.13%44.07%45.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.052.142.152.2148.78%46.72%46.51%45.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Mallorca (Visitante)

Predicción 25.66%3.90momio equitativo
EV +0.057%
Ventaja +0.015%
Kelly +0.020%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.30%25.73%25.70%27.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.673.703.9030.30%27.23%27.03%25.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.22%3.31momio equitativo
EV -1.79%
Ventaja -0.549%
Kelly -0.793%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.77%30.15%30.23%31.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.103.113.2534.72%32.21%32.15%30.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.21I 45.25%NM 44.51%EV -2.48%E -1.12%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.22%EV +0.057%E +0.015%K +0.020%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.27%EV -1.79%E -0.549%K -0.793%G +0.000%1.7%2026-04-24 03:40
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.13%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV +0.057%E +0.015%K +0.020%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV -6.32%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-22 21:10
BetOnline.ag2.18I 45.87%NM 44.31%EV -3.81%E -1.75%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.02%EV -0.970%E -0.251%K -0.339%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.67%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-23 03:34
LowVig.ag2.18I 45.87%NM 44.31%EV -3.81%E -1.75%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.02%EV -0.970%E -0.251%K -0.339%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.67%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-23 03:29
Unibet (NL)2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -2.93%E -1.33%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.17%EV -1.23%E -0.318%K -0.430%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 11:50
Unibet (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -2.93%E -1.33%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.17%EV -1.23%E -0.318%K -0.430%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 11:49
Svenska Spel2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -2.93%E -1.33%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.17%EV -1.23%E -0.318%K -0.430%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 11:50
ATG (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -2.93%E -1.33%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.17%EV -1.23%E -0.318%K -0.430%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-22 11:50
Coolbet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.41%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -1.23%E -0.318%K -0.430%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -6.32%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 20:45
Marathon Bet2.18I 45.87%NM 44.47%EV -3.81%E -1.75%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.24%EV -1.48%E -0.386%K -0.522%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.29%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-24 03:35
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -2.51%E -0.660%K -0.896%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -9.34%E -3.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-22 21:10
Pinnacle2.15I 46.51%NM 44.32%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.14%EV -2.77%E -0.730%K -0.991%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.54%EV -5.71%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-23 13:34
Bovada2.14I 46.73%NM 44.23%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.24%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -6.32%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 13:25
BetUS2.14I 46.73%NM 44.23%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.24%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -6.32%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 13:29
Casumo2.16I 46.30%NM 43.78%EV -4.69%E -2.17%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -7.83%E -2.57%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 11:49
Grosvenor2.16I 46.30%NM 43.78%EV -4.69%E -2.17%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -7.83%E -2.57%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 11:50
betPARX2.16I 46.30%NM 43.78%EV -4.69%E -2.17%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -7.83%E -2.57%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 11:49
Bally Bet2.16I 46.30%NM 43.78%EV -4.69%E -2.17%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -7.83%E -2.57%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 11:49
Unibet2.14I 46.73%NM 44.01%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -7.83%E -2.57%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 11:50
TABtouch2.14I 46.73%NM 44.01%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -7.83%E -2.57%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 11:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.14I 46.73%NM 44.01%EV -5.57%E -2.60%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -3.79%E -1.01%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -7.83%E -2.57%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 11:49
Codere (IT)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.84%EV -3.81%E -1.75%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.83%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.34%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-23 16:09
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 43.84%EV -3.81%E -1.75%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.83%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.34%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-23 14:05
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 44.39%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-24 03:50
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 44.39%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 16:00
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 44.05%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.35%EV -5.71%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-24 00:04
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 07:35
NordicBet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.52%EV -6.46%E -3.05%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 13:29
BetRivers2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -6.46%E -3.05%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -5.07%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -7.83%E -2.57%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 11:50
Betclic (FR)2.13I 46.95%NM 44.22%EV -6.01%E -2.82%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.59%EV -5.59%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.19%EV -5.71%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 16:04
LeoVegas2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -6.36%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.76%EV -9.34%E -3.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-22 11:50
Everygame2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -6.36%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.76%EV -9.34%E -3.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-24 03:10
NetBet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -6.36%E -1.74%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.76%EV -9.34%E -3.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 12:54
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -2.93%E -1.33%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -6.32%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-21 21:55
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 13:44
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.32%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 16:04
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-24 03:50
betfred_uk2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-22 11:50
theScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-22 11:50
William Hill2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -9.34%E -3.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-22 07:00
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -9.34%E -3.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-22 06:59
TAB2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -9.34%E -3.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 13:29
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -6.32%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 16:05
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.64%E -2.12%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -6.32%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-24 03:50
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -8.92%E -2.51%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 11:49
PlayUp2.12I 47.17%NM 43.41%EV -6.46%E -3.05%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -8.92%E -2.51%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -9.34%E -3.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 13:30
Virgin Bet2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.10%E -4.42%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -8.92%E -2.51%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -12.36%E -4.26%K -6.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-22 11:50
LiveScore Bet2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -9.10%E -4.42%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -8.92%E -2.51%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -12.36%E -4.26%K -6.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-22 11:50
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -2.93%E -1.33%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -10.21%E -2.92%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 11:50
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -2.93%E -1.33%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -10.21%E -2.92%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.32%E -2.04%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-24 03:50
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -10.21%E -2.92%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-24 03:50
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.12%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -10.21%E -2.92%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -4.81%E -1.53%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 16:04
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -9.54%E -4.66%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.21%E -2.92%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 12:50
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -11.49%E -3.33%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-24 03:50
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -11.49%E -3.33%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-24 03:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -15.34%E -4.65%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -12.97%E -4.50%K -6.90%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-23 19:38
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.22I 45.05%NM 44.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.52%0.8%2026-04-24 01:55
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 44.58%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.72%1.0%2026-04-24 03:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.54%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-04-24 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.54%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-04-24 01:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.54%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-04-24 01:55
Smarkets2.20I 45.45%NM 44.55%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.81%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.63%2.0%2026-04-24 01:55